Professor Shmuel Sandler

Senior research associate and expert on US-Israel relations at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

1. Friends in High Places

“Trump was not defeated. Republicans kept the Senate, and in foreign relations, the Senate is more important than the House.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton are also good friends of Israel. Israel can also count on two longstanding Jewish members of Congress, Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and likely next chairman, and Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY), also a ranking member, and in line to be the next chair of the House Committee on Appropriations, the panel that controls the government’s purse strings, including funding for foreign aid and homeland security.

2. Keep Enemies in Place

“The days of [pro-Israel Democrats Hubert] Humphrey and [Lyndon B.] Johnson are gone, but still, even though there are three or four new Democratic members of Congress who are openly anti-Israel, hopefully they’ll stay on the margins and see that they cannot move ahead inside the party by being anti-Israel.”

3. The Enemy from Within

“Our main problem will be with the liberal American Jewish community. We have to do something to improve our relations with them. Israel can work on the American Jewish community through Congress, through people like Engel and Lowey. The other problem is that Democratic politicians see our internal disputes and play on that. They get help from the Israeli left, which has given up on the Israeli domestic scene or being able to change Israeli politics in a democratic way, so they join forces with the liberal American left and rely on pressure from the outside.”

4. The Enemies from Without

“The problem is in academia. That’s where all these newcomers are coming from. Remember, President Obama was educated at Columbia and Harvard.”

5.Trump will Pressure Israel

What’s most important now to Trump is to win reelection in 2020. “If he’s a good businessman, he will realize he won’t be able to make big advances on domestic issues because the House is now in Democratic hands, so he will aim for accomplishments in foreign affairs where the Senate is on his side. This may cause him to push what he calls the ‘deal of the century’ and modify it more toward the Palestinians to push them back into the process. Ultimately, he’s schlepped already for two years. Now he has to do something.”

6. Keeping Trump Happy

What Israel must keep in mind is that Trump will be preoccupied with larger foreign policy challenges, mainly Russia, North Korea, and Iran. In the Middle East, stalling for time is a hallmark of negotiations, and Iran will pin its hopes on Trump losing his bid for reelection in 2020. Trump will expect Israel to be more forthright, so Israel has to be artful in dealing with the president. Israel’s strategy should be not to aggravate Trump. “He can get upset — we know that. So when his plan comes out, Israel can say ‘yes, but,’ and the Palestinians will take us off the hook by saying no, which is what they usually do.”

Yoram Ettinger

Former minister for Congressional affairs at Israel’s Embassy in Washington

1. Staying on Message

Dealing with Congress is an ongoing challenge for Israel. It doesn’t make a difference if the elected official is a Republican or a Democrat, a newcomer or a veteran. But Israel — and Israel supporters — often err by acting as if Jerusalem is dependent on US aid for its survival. Israel can change the conversation by highlighting how US military and economic cooperation is mutually beneficial. Then it must hone that message surgically for each Congressional district, wherever relevant.

2. Ignore the Deaf Ears

Pro-Palestinian Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) will join forces with the two Muslim-American Democrats in the next session of the House. Together, they represent less than 1% of Congress. “There have always been legislators who have disagreed with Israel or who criticize Israel. These two new Muslim legislators do not recognize the right of a Jewish state to exist in what they perceive to be the abode of Islam.” Ettinger favors focusing on new legislators who represent the mainstream American state of mind, both liberal and conservative.

3. Customize the Message

There are arid areas in the Southwest in dire need of water. Israel’s expertise in irrigation technologies should be highlighted there. Military deals between US defense contractors and Israel are a win-win, enhancing Israel’s security while generating jobs and profits in the US. Northrop-Grumman’s plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, saw worldwide sales boom after Israel announced a major purchase of the firm’s explosive-neutralizing robots. Israeli security officials sweetened the deal, holding a weekly conference call to share their operational experience with Northrop-Grumman officials. “I have no doubt that many people in Tennessee are not aware of that. Why not let them know the benefits to Tennessee produced by Israel?”

4. Build on Strengths…

Republican Red dominates America’s heartland, while the main Democratic enclaves are concentrated in densely populated urban areas on the East and West coasts. While looking for ways to cultivate new supporters, Israel cannot afford to forsake its rural base. “Rural America, by and large, possesses a very deep respect and appreciation for Judeo-Christian values, and those voters are sensitive mainly to a combination of the bible and national security. That combination holds great potential for Israel.”

5. While Playing the New Demographics

America’s demographic map has shifted from the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt over the past 50 years, while the map of Israel’s consulate generals in the US has remained static. “There has been almost no change in the location of the consulates or in the number of people serving in each consulate, and this impacts the capability of Israel to influence the new demographic balance.”

6. Go With the Flow