Defense sources say that Israel can expect tension, if not action, on the northern border soon. Not with Syria, the main theater of conflict for the last two years, however, but rather with Lebanon.

That’s because the Israeli army now believes that Hezbollah possesses improved attack capabilities. What’s more, many of its soldiers who were fighting in Syria have returned home.

Israel’s refocus on Lebanon comes as a result of Russian pressure on Iran. Moscow had slammed Tehran for blunting efforts to bring stability to war-torn Syria. Former intelligence head Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, today president of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), last week expressed publicly what many high-ranking officials had only alluded to in the past — that due to Russian intervention in Syria, the Israeli-Iranian conflict zone had shifted.

“An unstable Syria does not sit well with the Russians,” Yadlin said. “Israeli strikes have dropped to almost zero — not because Israel doesn’t want to strike, but because the Iranians changed tactics, transferring operations to Lebanon.”

Three months ago, in a speech at the United Nations, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel was monitoring efforts by Iran and Hezbollah to build production lines for precision arms inside Lebanon. Recently, evidence has come to light that airplanes full of Iranian arms that would previously have unloaded in Syria are now instead continuing straight to Beirut.

Thus, Israel’s defense establishment is facing several unpleasant simultaneous developments in Lebanon: an Iranian attempt to open production lines for precision arms; a greater Russian interest in Lebanon after reinforcing the anti-aircraft umbrella in Syria; and the return of Hezbollah home after the Syrian civil war has largely ended.

At the same time, Hezbollah’s suspicions have also been raised vis-à-vis Israel’s plans. At the end of last week, Hezbollah disseminated a video showing aerial photos of Israeli sites, including the IDF’s defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, with the caption, “If you dare attack, you’ll regret it.”

The IDF spokesman responded with a well-known proverb, delivered via social media: “Those in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.”

All this is happening less than two weeks after Netanyahu delivered a televised speech to the nation in which he warned of a stormy period ahead for Israel. At the time, he delivered the comments to persuade members of Bayit Yehudi to remain in the governing coalition, but the exact meaning of his words was vague. Now, two weeks later, the security situation is becoming clearer: Netanyahu wants to avoid a war with Hamas at all costs precisely because of renewed threats from Hezbollah.

Still, a defense source told me that we are not yet witnessing a chain of events that will inevitably lead to war. After all is said and done, it’s worth remembering that Israel and Hezbollah have weathered other tense periods in the past, and have nevertheless succeeded in maintaining a peace along the northern frontier, where 12 years ago one event led to another, until the eruption of the Second Lebanon War.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 738)