2

Let’s imagine that the results are in, and Harris has won. Can you explain in retrospect why Trump lost?

Binyamin Rose

Trump has been bombastic on the campaign trail. Many voters either loathe him, or fear he will be vindictive if re-elected and will be more destructive than constructive.

Seth Mandel

The Democratic Party’s Election Day messaging and managing is superior to the GOP’s. Democrats have a solid get-out-the-vote system and it’s become even better, I think, since Roe v. Wade was overturned and they were able to get abortion on state ballots. Trump, meanwhile, has a habit of telling his voters that the system is rigged against them and their votes might not count anyway. I can easily imagine a scenario in which Harris simply outworks Trump on gameday and that’s all it takes. If she goes into Election Day with a slight lead and a team that refuses to get out-hustled, perhaps she can counteract the pro-Trump momentum we’re seeing now.

Maury Litwack

If Trump loses, it’s because he squandered a month trying to figure out how to attack Harris. His campaign was caught off guard for far too long on how to define Harris after Biden stepped down. It was a disaster, and if he loses, this will be pointed to as the reason he lost. Tying Harris to the incumbent Biden has only begun in earnest this past month. It shouldn’t have taken his campaign so long to message such an obvious point.

Stu Loeser

The Trump campaign “let Trump be Trump,” and the Harris campaign has been masterful at showing skeptical voters every time Trump has a brain freeze. And some of the draconian new Republican anti-abortion laws are, understandably, very hard to defend. In razor-thin states like Georgia, disproportionately more women have voted early. These aren’t radical leftist voters. They are women — like many, many in our communities — who are personally unlikely to seek an abortion for themselves but are scared about mostly male lawmakers limiting what doctors can do, instead of couples and their doctors making decisions (with input from pastors or rabbis).

Eli Steinberg

There are two big gambles the Trump team is making on this election. They know they are strong with males, and are leaning in to that demographic. At the same time, they are also having a lot of outside vendors doing a bunch of the GOTV — the “ground game” of elections. While there are indicators that these are good bets, both from registrations in swing states and how many low-propensity voters are returning early vote ballots, it is a risky bet to make, since that demographic is not known to be a strong voting bloc, and traditionally, outside groups are not used to drive a ground game.

3

Now let’s reverse things and explain why, despite all the hype around her campaign, Kamala Harris lost.

Binyamin Rose

The American people didn’t buy the hype. The party elites overestimated the value of identity politics and underestimated Harris’s glaring weaknesses. Harris was considered a laughingstock for most of her term in office. She did little to change the trend during the campaign, where she came across in interviews as whiny and inarticulate, with no grasp of the issues and no detailed policy prescriptions. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

Seth Mandel

Harris is a terrible candidate. Sometimes that means nothing about whether the person will be a good or bad executive. But if Harris loses, it’ll likely be because voters decided that her poor handling of interviews and interactions with voters and the media were signs of things to come. She’s vulnerable to this mostly because voters don’t really know her outside of the campaign, so she has no solid brand to fall back on.

Maury Litwack

If Harris loses, it will likely come down to Pennsylvania, and not picking Josh Shapiro will be a decision that is revisited. The VP selection rarely hurts, but this will be pointed to as not only a mistake but as a missed opportunity . Did the Walz pick help her in any swing states? If not, why didn’t she pick the guy who could help her win the biggest swing state?

Stu Loeser

The Republicans have emphasized porous borders and illegal immigrants — which has proven time and again to be the single most effective election issue in rich countries across the world and especially Europe. Most of what Trump and Vance have said on the topic have been exaggerated lies, but they are based on smaller truths. Immigration plus a more far aggressive approach to disinformation is a strategy that works.

Eli Steinberg

If Kamala Harris loses, it is because she never had a real shot at winning. While she certainly benefited by being able to avoid the cost and bruising nature of a primary, what the Democrats missed out on was the clarifying aspect — which prepares the party for the general election. Skipping that meant that Harris, who could not get out of a primary in 2019, assumed the nomination, and had to balance a coalition made up of factions diametrically opposed to each other. She could not commit to one without alienating the other. So she committed to nobody.

Also, she didn’t pick Josh Shapiro.

4

On a scale of 1 to 10, rate the messaging of both campaigns in terms of attracting and retaining voter bases.

Binyamin Rose

Trump gets an 8. Aside from convincing his followers that life was better when he was president, his return to the scene of his assassination attempt in Pennsylvania showed resilience and courage, and flipping burgers at McDonald’s was a campaign stunt that both discredited Harris and showed him as a billionaire with empathy for people earning the minimum wage.

Harris gets a 2. She can’t articulate positions, and the fact that Obama had to chide black men to vote for her because she’s black shows that even her own ethnic group doesn’t connect with her.

Seth Mandel

Harris has been competent in retaining but not attracting new voter bases. Trump has the reverse problem. Together, they equal one truly competent campaign.

Maury Litwack

I would give both a 10. The base is turning out for both of these candidates. The Trump base is passionate and hasn’t gone anywhere. Harris likely deserves more credit for turning out a Democratic base that she never had to rally before. That being said, this election will come down to independents and those who don’t feel comfortable with either party label.

Eli Steinberg

The Trump campaign was a classic “are you better off today than you were four years ago,” with the added wrinkle of Trump having been the president four years ago. The answer to the question is an undeniable no, and that gets them a 10.

The Harris campaign was dealt with a tough hand. She had to try to be the change candidate, but acknowledge that she was in power the last few years. So they went with “a new way forward” and ran hard against the “past” of Trump. They get a 6.

5

Harris has leaned heavily on the “Trump is a threat to democracy” front, but in an era when even the Washington Post has jettisoned its “Democracy Dies in Darkness” slogan, was that a good idea?

Binyamin Rose

Using scare tactics to discredit an opponent is part of the political game, but it doesn’t work as well against Trump, who was president for four years and didn’t dismantle democracy, despite his best efforts on January 6, 2021. Trump is more of a threat to Democrats than to democracy.

Seth Mandel

No.

Maury Litwack

I spoke to some smart campaign folks who cringed when Harris started this. The feeling is that Trump does best when you play in his sandbox. Direct attacks on him not only keep the media spotlight on him but allow him to rally his base without adding to the Democratic base.

Stu Loeser

It’s not a great idea for a business to ask people for their money every day in service to a big unifying idea like the continuation of the free world — that’s not something people will pay money for every month. But it is a good idea to frame a once-every-four-years vote for president in big terms like the continuation of the free world. And for voters who have still not made up their minds with ten or so days to day, Harris emphasizing Trump’s fascination with fascists and the ways Trump himself says he wishes he could be more like Adolf Hitler is a smart strategy. The job is to get those last votes to count for her campaign, even if they are voting against Trump more than voting for her.

Eli Steinberg

Of course not. At a time when most people are feeling the struggle of paying their bills, the idea that they should eschew that because of a political slogan is just ludicrous. At the end of the day, Americans lived through four years of Trump, and guess what — democracy didn’t end. And they know that, too. So Democrats had to lean even harder into that, essentially comparing the man who was the 45th president to “Hitler” while ignoring the fact that win or lose, nearly half the country is still voting for this man.

6

Trump tacked to the center on abortion. Will that move help him or just frustrate his conservative supporters?

Binyamin Rose

Polls show that abortion is far from the most urgent issue for most voters. Trump’s newest position that individual states should pass their own abortion laws is a classic, constitutionally conservative position that gives states more power vis-á-vis the federal government. Trump was politically pragmatic to lower the flames on such a politically divisive issue, even if it costs him a few hard-core evangelical votes.

Seth Mandel

I think he has probably helped himself by tacking to the center in a general election in which abortion is so high-profile an issue, but it’s still an issue advantage for his opponent at the moment.

Maury Litwack

I heard from conservatives that they were upset by his tacking to the center on this and some other issues. I don’t think it helps with that base. It may help with independents but not with conservatives.

Stu Loeser

Trump used this campaign to make it crystal clear to his strongest and earliest supporters that he doesn’t reward their loyalty. He revels in the way he left them isolated with no other choice. This is the most important single thing this election has shown pro-Israel voters: putting all of our support behind Trump has the opposite effect of what it would if Trump were a normal, loyal person.

If you live in a state where the election is close and you care about Israel, you cannot make Israel a one-party issue. By walking away from abortion opponents, Trump has shown Israel voters exactly what not to do.

Eli Steinberg

Well, this depends. For hardcore pro-lifers, it is frustrating. But Trump already delivered more than anyone could have imagined on the issue, overturning Roe and allowing states to set limits on abortion where they want to. If these activists can’t win on the state level, that’s on them, not on Trump for not embracing an issue that is a motivating one for women in this country. See how Ron DeSantis was able to own the issue in Florida? That is the template.

7

Kamala Harris had a tough job on her hands to run as a vice-president while disassociating herself from her boss, Joe Biden. Has she succeeded in that balancing act?

Binyamin Rose

No, and it was probably too much to expect. She had to be loyal to her boss, who also coronated her, while at the same time creating separation. She could have done so by praising Biden for a half-century in public service while clearly articulating two or three important areas where her new approach tailored to the 21st century would differ from his. She doesn’t have the diplomatic skills or the grasp of policy to pull this off.

Seth Mandel

I might have said yes before that Hallie Jackson NBC interview, but oof.

Maury Litwack

Initially yes, but once the Trump campaign stayed on message, it became much harder. Al Gore famously ran while distancing himself from Bill Clinton. It was a colossal failure. It’s impossible for a VP to distance from the principal but take credit for the victories.

Stu Loeser

I think that yes, she has. It’s never easy to replace your boss unless it’s a father-son transfer, because you can’t simultaneously satisfy the people who love him and the ones that don’t. And while Kamala Harris was good friends with Biden’s son Delaware attorney general Beau Biden, she has different priorities and life experiences. It’s hard to show gratitude to the person who gave you your biggest break when you also have to detail how you’ll be different, but she’s done a decent job at it.

Eli Steinberg

No. Win or lose, Harris has never been able to answer any questions in a way that allows her to put some daylight between herself and the administration. At the same time, she desperately needs to be able to give herself some sort of authority, so she needs to act as though she’s the incumbent. Together, it’s a mess.

8

How good are the Trump and Harris campaigns respectively in the ground get-out-the-vote game and how much does that matter?

Binyamin Rose

Turnout is the whole game. At press time, Republicans are running even or even slightly ahead of Democrats in early voting, which also means there is less likelihood of any overnight reversals in the results that bred suspicion in 2020.

Seth Mandel

We don’t know yet, but recent history suggests Harris has the advantage here.

Maury Litwack

I used to think it mattered, and then I watched Trump ignore the traditional organizing principles in 2016 and 2020, and then again throughout the 2024 Republican primaries. I think the Democratic Party has once again been better on this, but I’m not sure it will matter.

Stu Loeser

Trump continues to have little to no local organization. A good ground game can get you three or four points — in close states, it could make the difference.

Eli Steinberg

This is one of the big unanswered questions. Will outsourcing be better than doing things in-house? Time will tell.

9

It’s a truism of US politics that Americans vote on kitchen table issues and foreign policy doesn’t factor that much into peoples’ presidential picks. Could the emotion surrounding Israel’s war change that, and if so, how?

Binyamin Rose

Again, most polls show the war in the Middle East is not a high-priority issue for voters.

Seth Mandel

All eyes on Michigan.

Maury Litwack

I don’t think it will. Polling hasn’t shown this. Exit polling in swing states are going to show the economy and immigration being the top two issues.

Stu Loeser

My longtime boss and mentor Mike Bloomberg frequently says that every vote is about jobs and housing — my job and my house. He’s almost always right, except maybe not this time. If you live in an eiruv or near a shul in a state that’s close and vote for Harris when your neighbors strongly voted for Trump in the past, you will be sending a clear sign to a Harris White House that they have more than just liberal pro-Israel voters on their side, and they better act in a way that keeps us on their side.

Eli Steinberg

These are factors that can make people decide not to vote for someone more than to decide to vote for them. So, for example, if you were a Democrat and you were unhappy with how Harris approached the Israel issue, it would more likely cause you to sit the election out than to vote for Trump. The big X factor here is the campus aspect of this issue, which, being domestic, is more likely to motivate a vote for Trump than regular support for Israel.

10

There’s been lots of talk— including in these pages— about a Jewish vote swing toward Trump as a result of the Biden administration’s perceived reluctance to fully back Israel. Are there any signs of that, in polls or anecdotally, and what level of swing would help him across the line?

Binyamin Rose

A Manhattan Institute poll taken in the first week of October reported that Harris is on track to perform worse with Jewish voters in this year’s election than any Democratic presidential candidate since the Reagan era. Still, my feeling is that while Trump will win more than the 31% Reagan won in his 1984 re-election bid, he will fall short of the 39% Reagan won during his first bid in 1980.

Seth Mandel

There are certainly signs of it, but Trump would need a very large vote swing in Pennsylvania for it to make a difference.

Maury Litwack

Popular vote is irrelevant, and that’s where most of the Jewish vote resides. Most of us don’t live in swing states. That being said, I am hearing anecdotally that in these swing states, there are still many undecided Jewish voters. I think rising anti-Semitism and a post–October 7 world is simply making the Jewish vote harder to predict or assume.

Stu Loeser

No president has ever moved US forces toward Israel to support it until Joe Biden did after October 7. No US commander in chief’s military has ever directly shot down Iranian projectiles over Israel, like Biden’s did. Republicans have won the popular vote in the US only once since Ronald Reagan was in office. Entirely rejecting Biden sends a sign to future Democrats that even if you do more to support Israel than Reagan and the first Bush did, you’ll get voted against. What does that do for Israel’s future support here?

11

Another entrenched narrative is that polls are useless because they failed to predict the 2016 Trump win. Is that true, or are any polls worth watching?

Binyamin Rose

I follow the Real Clear Politics average poll, as most professional pundits do. RCP claims that by averaging polls, they effectively increase the number of respondents and decrease the margin of error. Two days before the 2016 election, the RCP average showed Trump within the margin of error in every state that he had to win, and he ended up winning. In 2020 they showed Biden ahead all the way, and he won.

Seth Mandel

The polls haven’t been nearly as bad as people say, and therefore the sites that aggregate poll averages are quite useful.

Maury Litwack

Just continuing on our last question. I spoke to a pollster who said the shy Jewish voter is a real thing and should be accounted for. If you now have not just the shy Trump voter but also the shy Jewish voter, it is hard to recommend a particular pollster who can definitely predict the outcome.

Stu Loeser

I publicly predicted Trump’s victory in May 2016 at the Skybridge Capital SALT Conference in Las Vegas because I was seeing strong support for him from a lot of former classmates who graduated college but were not really prospering. The polls in 2016, I thought, were working off of fundamental misconceptions about how major chunks of voters were going to act. They are better this time, but are any really accurate? I can’t tell.

Eli Steinberg

We know a few things about polls. First, they criminally undercount the Trump vote. Second, nobody knows whether or not they are reliable. So, as individual predictors, polls are more or less worthless. However, one thing we do see from polls is movement, and the last few weeks have shown an undeniable and steady movement toward Trump. That doesn’t mean he’s for sure going to win, but it means his position is certainly improving.

12

What’s the best one-line closing message for Trump and Harris respectively?

Binyamin Rose

Trump: When were you and the world better off? In 2016–2020, or in 2020–2024?

Harris: Let’s progress toward a better future and not backslide into a divisive past.

Maury Litwack

Four more years?

That’s for both.

You want to scare Trump supporters, tell them it’s four more years of Biden if they lose. You want to scare Harris supporters, tell them it’s four more years of what Trump delivered in 2016 if they lose. Fear is a giant motivator at the polls, and fear of a second term for either party is what will determine the outcome.

Stu Loeser

Trump’s campaign has always been about his glory and who he is angry at. It works for him, and he should stick with it.

Kamala Harris should close with the message that she’s the candidate for Americans who don’t want to have to worry about their president and his moods everyday — she’ll just do the things most Americans want done.

Eli Steinberg

For Trump, it’s “Restoring America’s Greatness, and Bringing the Economy Back.”

For Harris, it’s “Hey, I’m Not Trump, Isn’t That Enough?”

13

It’s money time, so let’s make some bold predictions (minimal hedging, please). Who wins the presidency, and who wins the House and Senate?

Binyamin Rose

Trump wins with 296 to 312 electoral votes. Republicans win the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 and the GOP wins the House with 225 seats.

Maury Litwack

I think it’s a red wave. I think Trump wins.

Senate is at 53 seats for the GOP and they take control. But I think the wave stops in the House. The GOP wins the House but only by five seats, not seven.

Stu Loeser

Harris wins with at least 30 more Electoral College votes than she needs — a healthy margin, though likely not a landslide. Dems definitely take the House, and the Senate. The huge early votes — even in states where the presidential is not close — are almost certainly a sign of Democratic strength in the House and Senate.

Eli Steinberg

There’s so much uncertainty, but if I had to bet, I would say a clean sweep for Trump and the Republicans, and we likely know this to be the case on Election Night.

14

What surprises should we watch for on Election Day?

Binyamin Rose

Senate races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin where the Republican candidates have closed the gaps with their Democratic incumbents. One or more Republicans may pull off an upset.

Seth Mandel

Whether or not we go to bed knowing who won.

Maury Litwack

I think race will be called earlier than expected. I don’t think this will be a multiple-day nail-biter.

Stu Loeser

Trump was campaigning last week in Florida — a state that he’s allegedly winning by double digits. That only makes sense if Republican internal polls show their Senate candidates, like Rick Scott, are starting to lose ground. And remember that the late October slippage by Democrats running for Senate in 2016 was the early indication that Trump was going to win.

Trump flying out of his way to Miami may be the canary in the coalmine for Republicans. His show at Madison Square Garden this week is solid proof that they think Republican House seats are in bad shape in and around New York.

Eli Steinberg

How the states count the mail-in and early votes. Will it take more time than anticipated? Will it be surprising in face of the data we already have and what we know? Not addressing this issue properly is the single greatest driver of the growing lack of confidence in our elections, and it is a crying shame that all states do not count votes as they do in Florida.

15

October 7 has made this election seem uniquely pivotal. During this war, early Biden support for Israel gave way to embargoes on critical arms. Many believe a stridently pro-Israel Trump administration is far preferable to a Harris one. Is that true?

Binyamin Rose

It should prove to be true as both Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress would give Israel far more leeway to fight to win rather than to a draw. Trump has a strong track record of pro-Israel support. Many of the names bandied about for key foreign policy positions in a Harris administration are very problematic for Israel.

Stu Loeser

President Biden and Vice President Harris have given Israel almost everything it’s asked for, including shooting down Iranian missiles and repeatedly stationing military personnel near Israel as a warning to Iran. At the same time, Russian president Putin bragged about his “very close” links with Iran at his first meeting with Iranian president Pezeshkian. Israel’s latest attacks on Iran’s military installations have shown the world just how thin Iran’s defenses are — right when Russia says it wants to arm and empower Iran. As president, Donald Trump shrugged off everyone who cautioned him against praising Putin. Voters don’t have to believe everything some people in the media try to tell them about Putin and Trump, but they can see with their own eyes that Trump idolizes Putin in a way that no American president should. Every voter worried about delays on US arms shipments to Israel should be terrified by Putin bragging about arming Iran — and they have to ask if Trump standing alone is really the world’s best defense against Putin and Iran acting as partners. I say he isn’t.

Eli Steinberg

As frum Jews we need to remind ourselves that lev melachim v’sarim b’yad Hashem and Israel’s security doesn’t depend on who’s president. That said, you’d always rather have allies who want you to win your conflicts. So, yes.

16

With anti-Semitism rife on campus, is this election a last chance to address this wave of hate?

Binyamin Rose

I will be addressing this in more detail in next week’s election supplement, but for now, youth surveys show that despite the on-campus incitement, most college-age students don’t have strong or well-formulated positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Jewish organizations should show more confidence and forcefulness, combined with using our Jewish seichel to influence the debate against very well-funded opponents.

Maury Litwack

I believe when the election is over that there will be a serious conversation and internal reckoning on the left. They will lose races because of organizations like the socialists still running rampant in parts of the Democratic Party.

Stu Loeser

When a torch-bearing mob took over Charlottesville, Virginia — a city with a Jewish mayor — they were screaming, “The Jews will not replace us,” and wanted to eliminate Jewish people because they’ve been told a complete lie that the Jews are leading a fight against them. I got my degree many years ago from one of the secular universities with among the worst Israel protests and can report that there have always been overheated and shallow arguments on campuses. We shouldn’t feed into them — and voting for Trump doesn’t hurt any anti-Semites and actually helps the ones that he supports.

Eli Steinberg

The question assumes universities are still redeemable. I don’t think they are. Sadly, the new wave of anti-Semitism (which isn’t new, just mainstreamed) is here to stay, and as long as there are people in power covering for it, it will continue to grow.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1034)