O

nce again, a deadline is looming for the draft law. And once again, the government is making every effort to pass a new law that will be acceptable to its fractious and narrow coalition.

On Erev Chanukah, December 2, the latest three-month extension from the Supreme Court will lapse and, theoretically, all yeshivah students and kollel scholars will automatically become eligible for the draft. But don’t expect hordes of military police to swoop down on yeshivos to ferret out defectors if the law lapses. Rather, short term, the expiration will result in problems for yeshivah students wishing to travel abroad, renewing passports, and other related issues. More significantly, until the draft law is resolved, the budget for yeshivos will stand at zero.

It’s no secret that in recent months the chareidi factions have been divided over the law. The Moatzos Gedolei HaTorah of Degel HaTorah and Shas support the law with a few necessary changes, whereas the chassidic Moetzes of Agudas Yisrael had voiced all-out opposition — threatening to leave the coalition and bring down the government if the law were passed. In recent weeks, however, Agudas Yisrael has softened its stance and now demands essential modifications in various clauses.

Agudah’s change of heart gave MK David Amsalem the green light to restart discussions pending the law’s second and third readings, which had been brought to a screeching halt during the summer session. Following one especially productive meeting, there was cautious optimism among chareidi supporters that it would be possible to resolve the law’s three main snags: whether the law’s intent is only to draft a minority of yeshivah students, or it’s intended as an opening to something more dangerous; what will happen in eight years if the chareidi public doesn’t succeed in meeting quotas; and how economic sanctions on yeshivos would play out.

Everyone believed that there was a good chance all the hurdles would be cleared. Then, the day before the committee was scheduled to meet for a final time to put an end to the whole matter, Avigdor Lieberman shocked the political world by resigning his post as defense minister and leaving the coalition.

As of this week, things don’t look great. It’s highly unlikely that the High Court will grant another extension, especially after it already agreed to two, one in Elul 2017, and another in Elul 2018. According to the chareidi factions, the blame for this mess lies with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

“A narrow government with just 61 MKs is a major headache,” said Degel HaTorah MK Uri Maklev in an interview. “That’s not what we had in this government’s first year, when all the coalition partners were on board. Now, at the end of the term, everyone is looking for the first escape route they can find.”

It’s clear to all that Netanyahu is playing for time. He wants to work through a failed military operation in Gaza, and certainly doesn’t want to go to elections with echoes of Lieberman accusing him of displaying weakness in his dealings with Hamas. He also doesn’t want it to appear as if others set the date for new elections.

Between one coalition crisis and another, Netanyahu is anxious to pass an amended draft law, even without the changes that the chareidi parties are demanding. In fact, his advisors are convinced that the law can be passed without chareidi support. And in the event that he can’t pass a law and the government falls as a result, that’s okay too. The prime minister will simply call new elections and blame the chareidim for rejecting the draft law as the cause.

“We don’t want elections called because of the draft law,” Maklev, a member of the draft law committee, told Mishpacha. “Even if the law isn’t ideal for us — and there are still plenty of clauses that we’re not happy with, such as sanctions and what will happen in the future if, chalilah, quotas aren’t met — still, there’s nothing in it that harms the status of bnei yeshivos or the spiritual independence of the Torah world. For us, it would be best to pass it now, and to make any necessary amendments in the next government.”

Maklev notes that the law would also enshrine the right to Torah study as part of the Basic Law, a significant achievement. “When 50,000 bnei yeshivah would automatically be eligible for the draft, we don’t think it’s the right time to declare war over [a few] clauses that in any case have no chance of passing.”

Agudas Yisrael, on the other hand, believes the best strategy is to employ a wait-and-see attitude. “We already have the law that Lieberman pushed through, and even Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid supports it,” said a representative of the party. “So why should we rush to accept it? Let’s wait for the next government. If it’s better than the last one, we’ll try to pass a better law. And if it’s worse, well, we already have Lieberman’s law. Why should we support it already now?” (Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 737)