There are three distinct camps that are wrestling over control of the Democratic Party, over the future

Six months ago, Joe Biden led the Democratic Party. One month ago, Kamala Harris led the party. Now? I can’t see who is running this party. Three weeks ago, a red wave washed away the conventional wisdom about the blue party. But there is something happening now, a fight brewing. There are three distinct camps that are wrestling over control of the Democratic Party, over the future. Each camp believes their strategy will pave the way to victory. This fight will be determined over the next few months.

1

Socialist/Far Left

Their Pitch:

How could the far left possibly win after the red reckoning we just witnessed? Their belief is that as the opposite of MAGA, their left-wing agenda could win back the hearts and minds the party lost to Donald Trump.

Their Voices:

“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.” —Bernie Sanders

“At the end of the day, the ultimate problem is our ability to clearly and forthrightly advocate for an agenda that clearly champions the working class.” —Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)

“Leaders in Congress like the Squad have shown us another way of doing politics is possible and represent the promise of uniting our fractured nation and represent the promise of uniting our fractured nation into a multiracial democracy where everyone thrives and no one is left behind.” —Justice Democrats

Why They Could Win:

They argue that they know what the most active and vocal segment of the base wants, and that the base hasn’t been heard. They have produced the Squad, the Bernie Sanders campaign, and an active and energized social media presence.

Why They Won’t:

This segment of the Democratic Party is key to winning primaries where the party faithful show up. I don’t think they can point to wins in purple states or in many competitive general elections. Also, last time I checked, two members of the Squad had lost their primaries.

2

Obama-Biden-Harris “Old Guard”

Their Pitch:

We have won three out of the past five presidential elections. Ignore the losing Harris campaign, which had to run on a shortened timeframe. We know how to win and expand the base of the Democratic Party. Follow our model and organizing principles and we will see a return to victory.

Their Voices:

“If they said, ‘Well, what should we do? Who should lead the party?’ I would take Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, and I would bring him back from Japan and I would appoint him chairman of the Democratic National Committee.” —David Axelrod

“It was a privilege to spend the last 100 days with @KamalaHarris and the amazing staff led by @jomalleydillon who left it all on the field for their country. We dug out of a deep hole, but not enough.” —David Plouffe, in a tweet he later deleted

Why They Could Win:

Axelrod and Plouffe are both former Obama campaign strategists. Plouffe just served as an advisor to Harris. They have driven the campaign car before and argue that this past election cycle was an outlier, and their methods and strategies were not strictly followed.

Why They Won’t:

I think the Obama-Biden control of the Democratic Party will follow a similar arc to the Clintons’ former dominance. It’s over. Like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama was a generational politician who isn’t easy to replicate. Parties that try to replicate lightning in a bottle usually get injured. Harris seemingly was that candidate, and then she wasn’t.

3

Voices of 2028

Their Pitch:

The voices of the far left are not competitive in general elections. The voices of past campaign cycles are still going to be hired as consultants and talking heads. Those of us who want to win re-election in purple states and win back the White House have the drive and tenacity to win in 2028.

Their Voices:

“All of the very hard-left kind of ‘woke’ things [Republicans] loaded up into the clips… are unloaded on the backs of all of us in purple states, and we’re paying for all of the things that our colleagues might say in these hard-blue kinds of districts. —Senator John Fetterman

“People are being left behind, their regions are being left behind. We as a party will be history if we don’t heed the call to address the economy.” —Governor Gavin Newsom

Why They Could Win:

Fetterman won a purple state. Newsom is currently the governor of the largest state in the country and a leading candidate for president in 2028. These are people who have won general elections recently, and that is something that matters tremendously for the future builders of the Democratic Party.

Why They Will Win:

Defeat in elections has tremendous medicinal properties. As much as parts of the Democratic Party don’t want to hear from a moderate like Fetterman, they must listen to a guy who for months predicted much of Trump’s Pennsylvania success. As much as older Democrats may not want to hear from Newsom, he has a platform that gives him a staying voice in the party for the next four years. These voices will shape the future and remake it.

But is any of this enough to save the Democratic Party?

Will the Democratic Party Rise Again? Ask Me in Two Years

Their first test will be in 2026. Remember, politics is cyclical. In 1984, President Reagan won 49 states, and the Democratic Party was pronounced all but dead. In 1986, a new party had arisen, and they won a net gain of eight Senate seats and four House seats. It is a mistake to write off the Democratic Party. New leaders will gain control and make them competitive in two years, setting up a far more competitive showdown for 2028.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1038)