Is America's softened tone a sign that Bibi has folded?

Photo: Flash90

Aside from the low probability of a formal cease-fire ending Israel’s war against Hamas, there are a few unambiguous signs that Israel will ramp up — and then wrap up — its offensive against Hamas’s last major stronghold in Rafah in the coming weeks.

One such clue comes from the Biden administration’s change in tone. After the IDF incorporated many US concerns about the invasion into its battle plans, the US dropped its vociferous objections and now at least grudgingly admits that the IDF evacuation of Gaza civilians has gone better than expected and that IDF attacks haven’t crossed any red lines that would cause the administration to stop rearming Israel.

Two weeks into the invasion, Israel was in control of more than 70 percent of Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, which is Hamas’s major smuggling route for weapons, money, and other contraband that supports its black-market economy.

If the US can hold its tongue while Israel expands its reach so it can locate and eradicate an estimated 50 tunnels, and perhaps capture or eliminate Hamas’s leaders — and, best of all, find and free the remaining hostages — Israel could conceivably wrap up this phase of the operation in two to four months, according to estimates from current and former top IDF officials, depending on the level of resistance Hamas can muster.

Another sign that the US will give Israel the time it needs comes from an apparent slowdown in the timetable for negotiations with Saudi Arabia on a three-way pact that would include Saudi recognition of Israel. Shortly after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia and Israel, reports circulated that the deal was almost final. A couple of days later, administration officials were more cautious, saying it was “weeks away.”

Those could be the weeks that Israel needs to complete its search-and-destroy operation in Rafah, as there is no chance that Saudi Arabia, considered the leader of the Arab world and the gatekeeper to Islam’s holiest shrines, would sign an agreement with Israel with the battle still raging.

This presents both an opportunity and a potential trap for Israel.

The IDF needs the time to operate freely in Rafah and to stop Hamas from regrouping in other parts of Gaza. At the same time, the clock is ticking on the Biden administration, which badly needs a foreign policy victory — among other things that they need to fall their way — if they want to win re-election.

If the administration closes with the Saudis, they could present an agreement as a fait accompli to Israel. If that includes any wording that commits Israel to paving a pathway to a Palestinian state, Prime Minister Netanyahu has already said he will reject that.

That would open the door for the administration to portray Israel as the obstacle to peace in the region, and say: “Look at all we’ve done for you, we’ve brought you the grand prize — Saudi Arabia — and you’re telling us no?”

While administration officials who briefed Israeli reporters last week indicated they would prefer not to play that tough, the closer we get to the November 5 elections, the more desperate Biden could get. If he feels he is on the ropes, he might decide that Israel is a convenient punching bag. Israel could end up taking the blame for spoiling Biden’s finest — and perhaps only — foreign policy achievement.

Goes Without Saying

Prime Minister Netanyahu is the political grandmaster when it comes to boxing himself out of corners. Still, he has to play mistake-free political chess between now and the election, which includes steering clear of US partisan politics, even though the administration has not been shy about interfering in Israeli politics.

The temptation is there, considering Republicans are also making efforts to facilitate a tripartite US-Saudi Arabia-Israel agreement. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of the Senate’s toughest questioners, displayed his Southern gentility to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who testified last week before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations to discuss the State Department’s budget for the next fiscal year.

Both Graham and Blinken agreed there should be bipartisan support for both the Saudi Arabian deal and sanctions on the International Criminal Court for its quest to seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

Graham has turned himself into an important Republican Party backchannel. He met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) at the end of March, after which he reported the content of his talks to the Biden administration.

That report also included Graham’s mid-meeting call with former president Donald Trump, who reportedly spoke with MBS for about five minutes. CNN reported that aside from Trump touting his lead over Biden in the polls, their conversation consisted of exchanging pleasantries and casual chatter about the upcoming presidential election.

Graham is a seasoned diplomat, and he wasn’t going to Saudi Arabia to play partisan politics, or to promote Trump, who can do a better job than anyone of promoting himself.

However, it strains the imagination to think that Trump or one of his confidants hasn’t whispered in MBS’s ears: “Hold off, you’ll get a better deal from me.”

Or perhaps that doesn’t need to be said, because it goes without saying.

An anonymous Trump campaign advisor told CNN that Trump wasn’t going to inject himself into this issue now, for one, because he feels the “dynamics” for such a deal “aren’t there,” and also because he would rather focus his campaign on issues far more important to American voters, such as the economy, immigration, and crime.

That’s wise of him, and having said that, Netanyahu and all of the other tweet-happy members of his cabinet should resist any and all temptations to take sides, or suggest publicly which president or party can bring them the best deal.

The negotiations have reached a sensitive stage. What Israel must do is make its red lines known to the Biden administration and clarify exactly what it will take to get a green light from Jerusalem.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1013)