Where does the DNC leave the presidential race, and the future of Israel support in the Democratic Party?

Photo: Shutterstock/ Wirestock Creators

On the evidence of last week’s convention in Chicago, the Democrats are a party reborn. Just weeks after jettisoning Joe Biden as their 2024 candidate, and borne aloft on a combination of relief, surging fundraising, and impressive political discipline, the convention feted Kamala Harris as an undisputed champion — despite her primary-less ascent.

Evident also at the Democratic National Convention was the internal battle over the party’s soul when it comes to Israel, with the party’s mainstream walking a fine line on support for Israel and struggling to suppress the surging anti-Israel sentiment at the margins.

With the clock running down to the elections, and Republicans scrambling to find their footing, those internal disputes matter more than ever.

Where does the DNC leave the presidential race, and the future of Israel support in the Democratic Party?

The Harris Candidacy

Binyamin Rose

We’re There to Engage Rabbi

A.D. Motzen

Everything Has Changed

Stu Loeser

The Joy. The Hope. And the Hype

Binyamin Rose

IF television ratings are predictive, Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.

Each morning during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the DNC committee issued news releases with glowing Nielsen ratings showing how more Americans tuned in to the Democratic convention than did the Republican convention last month in Milwaukee.

The Democratic edge peaked at 40 percent on the second night, when Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, spoke. However, Harris’s acceptance speech at the convention finale drew 28.9 million viewers compared to Trump’s 28.4 million, which is less than a hundredth of a percent and probably a better indication of how close this race will be.

It’s not surprising the DNC would push such a superficial statistic, considering the four-day convention in Chicago was long on show biz and short on content. The theme of the convention was joy. The Harris-Walz ticket projects joy and positive energy — green, of course — compared to the Trump-Vance combo that smacks of negativity and laments America’s decline.

“Something wonderfully magical is in the air, isn’t it?” said Michelle Obama in her opening remarks. “It’s the contagious power of hope.”

Whether it’s hope, hype, or a combination of both, reporters played along. Scenes of joy, lightheartedness, music, and dancing sedated conventioneers into overlooking high food prices, unaffordable housing, and unavailable medical care, at least for four days and nights.

Maybe high prices don’t matter after Harris promised that when she becomes president, she will slap price controls on greedy, price-gouging corporations with one signature on an executive order. Even left-wing media outlets denounced Harris for that proposal, but they didn’t let it dampen the joy.

MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow admitted on air that her whole crew in the network’s “mothership,” as she called the broadcast booth, were “stamping and clamping” as Tim Walz delivered his speech accepting the party’s vice-presidential nomination. Outward shows of partisanship are a violation of protocol and could be grounds for having convention press credentials revoked, but that didn’t faze Maddow, who added there was nothing like watching members of the high school football team Walz coached, marching on stage wearing their old uniforms.

That was a bit of copycatting, as Michigan delegates to the 2012 Republican convention wore dark blue Michigan Wolverines college football jerseys with the same #48 that former president Gerald Ford wore when he played for the team.

There’s nothing like some nostalgia to liven up a tedious gathering. And it’s probably good for the television ratings.

Who’s Better at PR?

Relieved and hopeful, the DNC was high on energy and expresidential star power

There are other reasons that Democrats receive more favorable coverage than Republicans.

Pollsters disagree on which of the two major parties has more members, but the country is split around 50-50. If Democrats and independents had reservations about voting for Biden the octogenarian, they have no such qualms about Harris, who is young enough to be Donald Trump’s daughter.

Second, a Gallup poll from late 2021 shows that 50 percent of Democrats consider themselves liberal. A Pew Research Report from 2021 shows that a further 12 percent of Democrats define themselves as progressive. To these folks, liberal and progressive are not pejorative terms — they are valid political viewpoints that many media executives and reporters identify with.

I didn’t attend the Democratic convention this year because of the matzav in Israel, but I covered both the Republican and Democratic conventions in 2012 and 2016 and the GOP convention this year. Based on personal experience at five conventions, the Democratic Party beats the Republicans hands-down when it comes to providing detailed logistic support and guidance to the media, both in advance of and during the convention; accessibility of working space for the press; access to off-site events; and drumming up interviews.

While each party released lists of events so that media members could RSVP in advance, a much larger percentage of DNC events were open to coverage than were GOP events, the majority of which were labeled “closed press.” DNC volunteers emailed me during the convention, even though I wasn’t there, offering suggestions for interviews and storylines.

I’ll suggest one more reason why Democrats draw more viewership. They’ve got more blasts from the past on their speaker’s list.

Aside from Jimmy Carter, whose health is failing, Democrats can count on two popular former presidents — Bill Clinton (the last president to preside when the federal government ran a budget surplus) and Barack Obama. Clinton sounded as if he’s past his prime too, but Obama is still a fan favorite.

Republicans only have one former living president — George W. Bush — who, since leaving office after two terms in 2009, has avoided Republican conventions like the plague. Others say the party is avoiding Bush, because his second term ended with the subprime mortgage scandal that caused the worst financial market collapse since the Great Depression. But still, there is value and prestige to an ex-president who makes an appearance and displays party solidarity.

The Last Chance Debate

Following the convention, some polls showed Harris expanding her lead to three points over Trump, while the latest Real Clear Politics (RCP) average poll at press time showed Harris leading Trump by 1.5 percent nationally. That was before RFK Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, a move that was expected to shrink her lead fractionally.

More polls due later this week will show whether Harris’s convention bump will grow or dissipate, but the relevance of polling on the popular vote is questionable.

Presidential elections are won or lost in the Electoral College. At press time, the RCP average poll with no toss-up states showed Trump with 287 electoral votes, or 17 more than he needs to win. The 270toWin consensus forecast has Trump leading 235 to 226, with 77 graded as tossups. Harris leads in two other polls I watch: The 538 Forecast model had Harris ahead 251 to 219, and the Race to the WH survey showed Harris leading 288 to 250, with no toss-up states.

Two weeks ago, Fox News’s Jesse Watters argued that the polls showing Harris ahead are deliberately interviewing a larger percentage of Democratic voters, and that’s skewing results toward Harris.

Sean Trende, RCP’s senior elections analyst, analyzed that claim, and, without refereeing it, noted in his blog that pollsters may not be doing this deliberately. Trende explained that there is a sound social science concept known as “partisan non-response bias.”

“The idea is this,” Trende writes. “When events favor one political side or the other, partisans become more (or less) likely to take a poll.” Trende contends that Democrats are overwhelmingly engaged right now. “They have reason to believe they just avoided a near-death scenario and potential wipeout. They have a new presidential nominee, about whom they are overwhelmingly excited, and they like the vice-presidential selection. They would love nothing more than to talk to you, or a pollster, about the 2024 election.”

If you can chalk up Harris’s lead to the initial excitement, then that portion of her lead will fade as the weeks go by, but the one event that could trigger a dramatic shift in the polls is the Trump-Harris debate, scheduled for Tuesday, September 10, in Philadelphia.

Trump is considered the more experienced debater and better with the ad-libs and stingers that are often decisive and memorable during debates. But Harris’s acceptance speech was both an impressive showing of stage presence and the fact that she could deliver her message in about a third of the time that Trump took.

She has also developed a knack for getting under Trump’s skin. She recognizes his personality flaws and his legal woes and she contrasts them skillfully with her experience as a crime-fighting prosecutor in Oakland and as California’s attorney general. Her track record in those roles is debatable and controversial, but she knows how to spin them to her advantage.

Harris also knows how to play on those who fear Trump. Trump in the Oval Office would usher in “a presidency without guardrails,” she said, while labeling her opponent as an “unserious man.” That’s a clever tactic. That’s exactly how Trump treats Harris, and if Trump tries to insult her during the debate, she is going to lash back.

Showbiz aside, Kamala Harris has morphed into a serious contender, whether you agree with her politics or not. The Democratic Party has rallied behind her, dispiriting Trump and the Republicans who are now on the defensive and must find ways to break out of their malaise.

We’re There to Engage

Rabbi A.D. Motzen

Photo: Jacob Willner Photography Agudath Israel

“W

hat’s he doing here?”

Such was the reaction when Vivek Ramaswamy, the former Republican presidential candidate (and fellow Cincinnatian) passed through my vicinity at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago’s United Center, followed by a gaggle of reporters.

I assume he didn’t agree with much of what he heard at this convention. Then I stopped to reflect on my own presence at the DNC. As a registered Republican (who occasionally votes for Democrats) representing the Torah values of Agudath Israel — did I belong here?

The simple answer is that I work for Agudath Israel of America, which, as a 501(c)3 tax-exempt organization, can’t endorse or oppose any candidate or party for office. But our gedolim have mandated that we be effective shtadlanim, or advocates, for the Orthodox Jewish community.

That means showing up on Capitol Hill and in statehouses and city halls across the country. You can’t be effective if you aren’t at the table, engaging with elected officials and influential people in both parties. And pursuant to the guidelines established by our rabbinic leaders, we also attend nominating conventions.

While the focus of these conventions is on the presidential candidates, there are tens of thousands of local, state, and federal officials and party activists in attendance. That’s why I also attend GOP events, including last month’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, and a speech by Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, just a few days earlier to hear how he was going to combat anti-Semitism.

Obviously, the RNC and DNC present very different visions of the future, but there was also a stark difference in how the conventions handled protests. There are protests at all conventions, but this time, I was the target.

Most people found out about Agudah’s event on the sidelines of the DNC thanks to a viral video of a handful of protesters standing in the hallway screaming about the need to “dismantle Zionism” before they were quickly hauled away by our private security team. Many decried the need for Jewish groups to hide the location of their events for fear of being disrupted by these agitators. However, these stories failed to report on the bigger story of Agudah’s event.

Inside the room, more than 150 local, state, and federal elected officials and party activists mingled with Jewish leaders from across the country. The event was not an endorsement of the Democratic Party or its platform, but rather an opportunity to help educate public officials and activists about our community and engage them in important conversations.

Democratic officials stood in silence as the Neutra family spoke about their son Omer, who has been held hostage by Hamas since October 7. In addition, there were banners posted around the room highlighting the need to condemn anti-Semitism by name, and not simply lump it together with ritual denunciations of “all other forms of hate,” and pointing out that a majority of anti-Semitic assaults around the country involve those who are identifiably Jewish — the Orthodox community.

The elected officials who spoke at this event condemned this abhorrent trend and explained how they plan to combat it with concrete action. For example, Congressman Josh Gottheimer, who earlier this year voted to censure his colleague Congresswoman Tlaib, urged every participant to push Democratic senators to bring his bipartisan bills to combat anti-Semitism to the floor for a vote.

At a time when both major parties are accused of harboring anti-Semites in their ranks, we can’t afford to ignore either of them. For now, I’m encouraged that both parties feel that being perceived as the stronger one on the issue of anti-Semitism will get them more votes. Voters will ultimately decide who they believe.

The other goal of Agudah’s DNC event was to highlight the growth of the Orthodox Jewish community and its increasing electoral strength. Most Orthodox Jews live in blue states. Our message, delivered by such elected officials as New Jersey governor Phil Murphy, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, and Illinois state senator Ram Villivalam, was simple — ignore the Orthodox community at your peril.

Protestors notwithstanding, the event was a great success.

Vivek Ramaswamy was also at the DNC to engage people, but one exchange stood out. Ramaswamy bumped into Van Jones, a former Obama appointee and now a CNN commentator, and related that a statement Jones made a few months back caused his family to get death threats. Jones looked genuinely concerned, and, surprising everyone, he took down Vivek’s number and promised to call his wife personally to apologize.

I doubt that Vivek recruited anyone at the DNC to the Republican cause, but he proved that when you engage honestly and directly with people who disagree with you, you may be surprised at how they respond.

As I drove home from Chicago late Thursday night, I revisited my question from a few hours earlier: Did I belong at the DNC? Like Vivek, I was there to share our agenda and not to accept theirs. How could I not have attended?

Rabbi A. D. Motzen is the national director for state relations at Agudath Israel of America. He resides in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Everything Has Changed

Stu Loeser

T

he last time I was in Chicago’s United Center, it was the 1996 Democratic National Convention. I was working my first campaign job ever: checking the credentials that conventioneers wear on lanyards around their necks to see if they were authorized to go onstage. This year, I returned wearing a “floor guest” credential. I found that the structure hasn’t changed all that much in 28 years, but almost everything else has. 

Language Transformed. Homages night after night to revered Republicans like Ronald Reagan and John McCain. Dozens of speeches about “freedom” and the need to keep the federal government from meddling in Americans’ private lives. Former soldiers and current sheriffs addressing the crowd. These were all features of the 1996 Republican National Convention, and only the Democrats’ in 2024. Our agenda is bracingly normal, which is not how I’d characterize the other party’s priorities.

A Crowd Transformed. My biggest shock in 1996 was how frequently I heard delegates talking about their good old days. The Democratic Party was reaching for change back then, but some individual Democrats were still longing for some lost golden age. But those kinds of people aren’t around anymore. Every person in Chicago, not just the speakers, was excited to work for a better future.

A Menu Transformed. I don’t remember much about the kosher food stand in 1996 other than that it was hard to find. This year, Mordy’s Kosher offered what people said was the best food by far in the whole United Center, and the wide range of Americans waiting patiently on line with folks like Shabbos Kestenbaum (who led the anti-Semitism lawsuit against Harvard University) was proof. Mordy’s somehow served everyone without ever running out of food for those of us who couldn’t eat from the other stands — something a certain baseball team in the Bronx still hasn’t learned to do.

Data Transformed. At my company, I teach executives how data analysis has transformed the way news organizations work — and how they can use that to their advantage. During a daytime DNC session, I was thrilled to learn that elected officials can now map small changes in voting patterns against the issues those voters care about — so far advanced from even just four years ago when I worked on Mike Bloomberg’s campaign for president. This matters a lot for geographically coherent communities, like those in close walking distance to shuls in swing states. There’s thankfully no way whatsoever to track individual votes, but neighborhood-level shifts from Trump in 2016 and 2020 to Harris-Walz in 2024 would send a signal loud and clear: We aren’t always with you, and we very well may not vote for you next time if you don’t continue to take Israel’s security and right to defend itself seriously. James Baker III, George H.W. Bush’s campaign-manager-turned-secretary-of-state, was being honest when he openly admitted that the Republicans weren’t backing Israel’s 1991 loan guarantees because pro-Israel Jews “don’t vote for us anyway.”

Israel Transformed, too. That brings me another undeniable change: Support for the Palestinian cause is voiced more forcefully than ever in the Democratic Party. That’s a fact, but it’s not the only relevant fact. Elected Democrats are still overwhelmingly pro-Israel. Vice President Harris stood up strongly for Israel and the need for the US to help Israel defend itself. She loudly decried October 7 and specifically highlighted the evil nature of the attackers’ violation of Israeli women, which no pro-Palestinian activist ever mentions. And her statements of sympathy for the Palestinian cause were not new; it’s about the same policy that the Republican Party pushed post-9/11 and throughout the second Bush presidency. Also in Chicago, hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s parents were warmly embraced by an arena thundering with “Bring Them Home!” chants.

When anti-Israel protesters disrupted Agudah’s excellent event about anti-Semitism, Rabbi A.D. Motzen and his team flipped their vile hate back onto them as proof to the world that “anti-Zionism” is really anti-Semitism — and Democrats cheered. And when a protester attacked New York state assemblyman Jeff Dinowitz outside a Democratic Majority For Israel event, he reached into his suit pocket and pulled out a medium-size Israeli flag, which he waved in front of their camera while calmly but forcefully arguing back.

In every way, Democrats in Chicago showed that they are a whole lot closer to the Republicans of just a few years ago than the Republican Party itself is today. Mishpacha readers in swing states might look at more than just the convention moments they disagreed with most as they think about November.

Stu Loeser is a Democratic communications strategist who has worked on three presidential campaigns as well as congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. His media strategy firm helps companies in crisis.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1026)