Polling is too tight for this debate to not matter. Whoever makes a big error, whether on policy, style, or personality, will lose

Photo: AP Images

T

ake a deep breath. The political roller coaster we’ve been riding still has a ways to go.

With two months left until the election, we are confused, nauseous, and perhaps a little scared. We have gone up and down in the polls, switched to a new presidential candidate, met a couple of new vice presidents, watched conventions, and now it is almost over. We want to get off the ride, but a few loop-the-loops remain.

One of the biggest is the upcoming debate. One political colleague told me he believed it would be the most viewed debate in political history. Kamala Harris will face Donald Trump for the very first time. The last debate upended the entire race. Will this one? How will Harris fare in an unscripted environment? How will Trump fare now that he is the oldest candidate?

Buckle up, this ride is far from over.

Implosion Pending?

I want to disabuse readers of one possibility circulating among my WhatsApp chats, shul conversations, and dinner table discussions: Neither candidate is going to implode in this debate.

Republicans are excited about the prospect of Harris finally receiving questions in a setting that throws her off of her carefully constructed campaign narrative. This hopeful thinking is based on Harris’s avoidance of interviews and improvisational situations. While it is true that many voters will be seeing Harris in a setting unlike any other she has been in for the last month, it is unlikely that she will falter badly on the debate stage. Harris is a former prosecutor who is used to these impromptu settings and will not suddenly shrink from the moment.

Democrats are excited about the prospect of Trump, who is 18 years older than Harris, appearing as elderly and worn down on camera as Biden did in the first debate. This hopeful thinking is based on the 2008 debates between Barack Obama and John McCain, which highlighted their 24-year age gap to McCain’s detriment. While this may excite Democrats, it is doubtful that Trump will present as poorly as Biden did. Yes, their age difference will be evident, but Trump has yet to stumble repeatedly or demonstrate a complete breakdown in his public presence to the extent Biden did.

Given that, net-net, age versus impromptu setting means that neither candidate will have an edge here, where will the battle lines be drawn?

Harris’s Case: “No Guardrails”

The signature line of Harris’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention was intended to drive home the point that, freed from the constraint of needing to seek another term, Trump’s worst instincts will be unleashed. This hit the hardest because it required viewers to think about everything that Trump is associated with: January 6, his indictments, his polices that they disagree with.

This last perception may be Harris’s strongest argument. For example, abortion continues to poll as a top issue. Her campaign will argue that if you don’t like the current status quo on that issue, “Imagine President Trump with no guardrails.”

Harris has already telegraphed that this will be her central line of attack in the debate by insisting that Trump’s microphone be unmuted at the debate. Under the debate’s original framework, the Biden campaign had gotten Trump to agree to having the microphones muted, so that Trump couldn’t interrupt when Biden was talking. From the Harris campaign’s perspective, unmuting Trump would show that he drives through the guardrails and can’t control himself.

While Harris is preparing this strategy, Trump will also be planning an offensive of his own.

Trump’s Case: “She’s Had 3½ Years”

During their national convention in Milwaukee, the Republicans tried relentlessly to tie Kamala Harris to the unpopular policies of the Biden administration. This is a smart attack on Harris, and I suspect it will continue in the debate. Trump will make the argument that every new idea Harris is proposing now could have been implemented while she’s been vice president.

Harris is trying to launch her campaign on a “hope and change,” anti-incumbency platform, like Obama did in 2008. But she is not an outsider, she is part of the current administration. And just as Trump will attack her new proposals on the basis that she’s already had her chance to suggest changes, he will also point out that as an incumbent, she bears responsibility for all the things the current administration has done wrong.

Immigration and the economy are polling as top issues with voters, and they give negative marks to the Biden administration’s handling of them. Trump will have an easy time pinning blame on the Biden-Harris administration. His campaign has signaled this line of attack by repeatedly trying to anchor Harris to concerns over Biden’s age. Repeatedly, Trump’s surrogates have questioned the political intrigue of Harris helping to shelter Biden’s decline from the public eye, then pushing him out to seek the nomination herself.

Whose Case Is Stronger?

I believe Trump’s anti-incumbency argument is far stronger than Harris’s “Trump with no guardrails” pitch. The American public couldn’t possibly list every issue, scandal, or careless remark associated with Trump. I understand that it is a compelling message that turns out the Democratic base, but I am just not sure how convincing it is for undecided voters. Perhaps a different candidate would be damaged by such an attack, but not a candidate like Trump.

Contrast this attack with the anti-incumbency argument and it collapses even faster. Americans who are upset about pocketbook issues, safety, or immigration are feeling that pain now and pointing at the White House as part of the problem. Attaching Harris to the current administration is a strong argument that not only helps turn out Republican voters but also motivates undecideds.

Who Is under More Pressure?

I believe most of the pressure in this debate is on Harris. This is her first presidential debate, her most significant unscripted moment to date, and her first time having to respond to Trump in real time.

What Should We Watch For?

Will one interrupt the other and turn off audiences? Will one announce a major policy proposal that excites or frightens the audience? Will one look terrible on camera that night?

Polling is too tight for this debate to not matter. Whoever makes a big error, whether on policy, style, or personality, will lose.

And what comes next?

The next loop-the-loop. No matter what happens in this debate, there are still more debates to come. More polling. More ups and downs.

Sit tight and enjoy the ride.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1027)