Every two years in the US, the country experiences the climatic event of congressional elections

T

he recent sweltering heat on the East Coast has made life uncomfortable, but incoming thunderstorms brought relief. Bad weather often changes suddenly due to other atmospheric events, giving rise to phrases like “calm before the storm” or “eye of the storm.”

Similar patterns hold sway in politics; every two years in the US, the country experiences the climatic event of congressional elections. Often, these elections see one political party sweeping into power and the other swept out. Pundits label such decisive elections “waves,” either red or blue, depending on which party wins.

Like a meteorologist, we can read patterns that are forming now to help predict who will win the critical 2026 midterms, which will determine whether Trump and the Republicans maintain majority power or the Democrats sweep them out.

Blue Splash

Forecast:

The Democratic Party gains a few Senate and House seats but falls short of regaining a majority in either house. Republicans avert the historical trend of midterms hurting the majority party and claim victory.

Atmospheric Patterns:

Kamala Harris has announced she’s not running for California governor. This was a telling sign. What does Harris know about 2026 that we don’t? Does she think she’d have a harder time winning a Democratic primary as her party veers to the far left? Or did she take into account Richard Nixon’s experience in 1962? Nixon had dusted himself off after losing the 1960 presidential election to JFK and ran for California governor, and lost. That year the GOP fell short of dealing JFK heavy losses in the midterms, managing only a surprising “red splash.” Perhaps Harris views 2026 with trepidation about Democratic chances.

Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York. Many speculate that Mamdani has become the Republicans’ new campaign poster child, replacing their more popular targets of AOC and Nancy Pelosi. Could Mamdani damage Democrats’ chances and drive Republican turnout?

Could Trump’s policies start to pay off? Will the impacts of the Big Beautiful Bill and the tariffs be beneficial to the economy come 2026? These factors could make Trump more popular among independents while driving Republican turnout.

Likelihood:

I would assign this forecast a chance of 10 percent, if not lower. It is highly unlikely that the Republicans are more motivated that the Democrats. Consider Trump’s last midterms in 2018; Democrats gained the largest House majority since Watergate. There is a historic political weather pattern here that is impossible to ignore. Also, although Mamdani is a polarizing figure, there is no doubt that views like his are popular, as we will explain.

Blue Wave

Forecast:

The Republicans maintain a healthy Senate majority, sustaining only a few losses, while Democrats handily reclaim the House majority by winning 10 to 20 seats.

Atmospheric Patterns:

New Democratic voters. Mamdani didn’t just win the New York mayoral primary; he motivated 18- to 25-year-old first-time voters to turn out in historic numbers, and registered tens of thousands of new voters. Mamdani and his far-left policies may certainly be outside the mainstream, but if Democrats have such built-in enthusiasm 18 months before the midterms, they could cruise to victory in November 2026.

Republican civil war. MAGA is at war with itself over conspiracy theories and who will lead the party in 2028. If this continues, expect competitive and vicious primaries in 2026 that will distract and divide the GOP.

Clear versus murky opponents. The Democratic Party has a clear opponent to rally against in President Trump, while the Republican Party doesn’t. This is the issue when you are in the majority. Pelosi isn’t in power and other Democratic leaders like Mamdani won’t have national power. Without a clear opponent, it’s harder to motivate your voters to turn out.

Likelihood:

I would give this outcome a 60 percent chance, or a little higher. The Republicans are facing off against history, playing defense while already fighting among themselves. The Democratic Party has a much easier job simply sending a strong message against a clear opponent. It will take a lot of changing political weather patterns for the Democratic Party to mess this up.

Blue Tsunami

Forecast:

The Democratic Party takes all the competitive Senate seats and 40 to 50 House seats. This blue tsunami makes it nearly impossible for Trump to move anything legislatively in his last two years.

Atmospheric Patterns:

Medicaid being cut is disastrous for the Republican Party. I haven’t talked to one Republican activist who has told me otherwise. Defending Medicaid cuts is an impossible position for the average Republican congressman to be in, and it will dominate the next year of campaign politics.

Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) is jumping into his state’s open Senate race. Harris may be nervous about her chances in California in 2026, but landing a marquee name like Cooper means that Democrats likes their chances.

Trump is picking unnecessary fights. This week, Trump went after Senator Susan Collins (R-ME). She is likely the only Republican who can keep that seat red. Attacking her is not only a way to potentially lose that seat but also to signal to other moderate Republicans that they may face costly primaries, with the president leading the charge. This climate will make it harder for them to field competitive candidates in swing districts.

Likelihood:

I would give this a 25 percent chance. A week is a lifetime in politics, and there is so much time left on the political calendar that it is hard to imagine the Republicans not finding a way to avoid this devastation. Still, Democrats must like their chances in an environment where small things such as candidate recruitment, party registration, and defending Medicaid have put them in a strong position to win.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1073)