An insider’s guide to politics

Photo:AP Images

“I try to learn from the past, but I plan for the future by focusing exclusively on the present. That’s where the fun is. And if it can’t be fun, what’s the point?”

—Donald J. Trump, The Art of the Deal

Right now, President Trump’s “present” is the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” (or OBBB) that he just signed into law. A whirlwind of over 900 pages of tax policy, legislation, and massive cuts to social safety-net programs that will massively impact the November 2026 midterms has just landed on the American public. The president certainly seemed to have fun passing it. But what does it mean? And will Republicans or Democrats be having fun in 16 months when Americans head to the polls?

What Just Happened

Trump may play for the future, but he also admits to learning from the past. He certainly did so when he looked at previous presidents’ big legislative bills. He knows that the momentum from winning elections can help pass massive legislation within the first year. Franklin Delano Roosevelt most famously did so in 1933 when he passed 76 laws in his first 100 days.

More recent presidents have faced a divided Congress and have therefore sought to dump policy, tax legislation, and relief spending together in massive bills. Examples are President Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act after the 2008 recession, and President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill following Covid-19 in 2020. Both Obama and Biden followed these bills with other giant packages of legislation.

The best analogy for this modern dynamic is to imagine you’re taking a dozen feuding toddlers to the grocery store. Would you rather deal with the whole shopping list once a month, or daily? When dealing with an ornery Congress, presidents prefer to cram as much as they can into one bill and use all their credibility to pass it. Trump has done the same thing; he’s just far better at naming his legislation than his predecessors.

What’s in the Bill?

Space won’t permit me to summarize all 900 pages of the OBBB, but the details of what it’s in the bill aren’t so important. The question is, what will the average American remember? I think two things will stand out.

Tax Credits and Deductions — Among other things, this bill includes an extension of the child tax credit and an increase of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. The most important item for Jewish families is the historic passage of a national educational tax credit. Numerous other deductions and credits from tips, to cars, to benefits for seniors will be of interest to those in the pertinent industry or tax bracket.

Medicaid Cuts — To pay for the credits and deductions, there will have to be cuts on the spending side. The one that will be most publicized and discussed is the $1 trillion hit toMedicaid and other federally funded health care programs. The Congressional Budget Office claims that it will impact 11.8 million people over the next decade.

These two memorable parts of the legislation will drive the debate leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.

Battle Royale on the OBBB

It may feel like there was just an election, but the entire House of Representatives is up for election every two years. That reality creates a limited window for governing and an almost constant campaign culture. The Democrats are in the opposition, and their goal is to attack everything the Republicans do. The Republicans, as the majority party, must defend their actions. Each will stake out one of the two memorable parts of this OBBB in this battle. Democrats will attack the Medicaid cuts; Republicans will try to defend those, and sell the tax cuts.

The Democratic Playbook

There’s a rule in politics never to cut a program that people are dependent on. The reason is that doing so emboldens a new voting bloc angered over what was taken away from them. Democrats will leverage this rule by charging that the Republicans are taking away benefits from millions of Americans. Although the Medicaid cuts won’t really take full effect for years, this messaging strategy assumes that most Americans won’t read a 900-page bill and will vote based on fear for their medical benefits being taken away.

The Republican Playbook

The Republicans will try to go all out to sell the tax cuts and credits. The massive bill has a wide array of benefits for average Americans, but selling these benefits to each segment will require constant messaging. On top of this, the Republicans will have to defend the Medicaid cuts and explain why the Democratic argument isn’t accurate. Notice that the Republicans have a two-pronged position as opposed to the Democrats’ one-pronged attack.

My Big Beautiful Prediction

Democrats will have a far easier time attacking this bill than the Republicans will have in defending it. The biggest issue for the Republicans is that time is simply not on their side. If you thought it took a long time to pass this legislation, just imagine how slowly it will move through the bureaucratic machinery of government.

During that long period, the Democrats will stay message-disciplined in attacking this bill. Being the opposition party offers far more benefits during a campaign cycle than being in power. The attacking party simply needs to stay focused while the controlling power is placed in a defensive position.

The Republicans are going to have a nearly impossible task holding the House while defending this bill. This is not to say that there aren’t things in this bill that may help the Republicans in 2028, but my predictions for 2026 is that this OBBB safeguards Trump’s long-term legacy while setting up the Democrats to take back power in the short term.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1069)