Europe prepares for Trump 2.0

Donald Trump’s first term slew almost every sacred cow upon which postwar Europe was built — immigration, NATO, and free trade, which seemed like settled issues — were all up for debate post-2016. Now, on the eve of a potential Trump return, the continent has undergone profound changes, and is girding itself further for another showdown with the world’s most powerful democracy.

Immigration

The 2016 Brexit vote was the canary in the coal mine of anti-immigration anger, but it was Trump’s rhetoric and policies that really put immigration liberals on notice. With a more violent and autocratic Middle East, and Latin America ravaged by gang wars, the borders of Europe and the US have been overrun. Western leaders previously sheltered behind postwar humanitarian treaties, but voters have had enough and care little for the 1949 Geneva Convention in 2024.

In Germany, Italy, and Poland, anti-immigration policies are being implemented. France’s Emmanuel Macron is clashing with the border hawks in his new government. In Hungary, the Netherlands, and Austria, the populist right is in power. With the border one of the Democrats’ key weaknesses, European leaders know there’s little room for error on this emotive issue.

NATO

It was a very convenient system, until Trump came along and started asking awkward questions. For decades, European leaders pinched pennies on defense, and the US picked up the tab. The former businessman and dealmaker was outraged at this perceived unfairness, and threatened to withdraw from the alliance if Europeans failed to stump up the cash. Fast-forward a few years, and NATO members have done just that; defense spending has risen from 1.47% percent in 2014 to the 2 percent target in 2024.

NATO’s support for Ukraine is another potential weak spot, where US support is not guaranteed, and NATO officials have told CNN they’re preparing for the US to take a lesser role in the alliance under a Trump presidency.

Free Trade

In 2016, Trump capitalized on the anger of post-industrial America, which globalization had hollowed out, and vowed to impose tariffs on the foreign imports flooding the US. Brussels tried de-escalating by only partially retaliating to tariffs in 2018, but Trump, hardly the conciliatory type, only doubled down, threatening tariffs on EU car exports. Brussels’ cadre of smug globalists were shocked at how readily Trump upended global supply chains and traditional alliances. This time, the EU are taking no chances and have prepared a raft of punishing retaliatory tariffs.

“The Commission has prepared substantial retaliation so that we push Trump for a deal in the first round,” one diplomat told Politico, arguing that, with the German auto industry in Trump’s sights this time round, the alternative would be a damaging tit-for-tat vortex that could cripple multiple EU economies.

Payday at Microsoft

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella certainly broke the stereotype of the greedy tech exec when he asked his company board to reduce his pay on account of cybersecurity flaws and job cuts at Microsoft this year. Luckily for Nadella, the board refused his request and paid him $79.1 million, citing 16 percent revenue growth in the year to June 2024.

Most of the money is made up of stock options, with only $5.2million in cash, which the board’s compensation committee had reduced by half. Nadella’s 63 percent rise in year-in-year pay puts his earnings above both Apple boss Tim Cook ($63.2million) and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang ($34.2million), though it pales in comparison to Elon Musk’s potential pay packet of $56 billion, which is linked to Tesla’s share price. By every metric, it’s tech that’s proving to be the moneymaker of the future.

Labour’s Not Working

The UK’s newly reelected Labour Party had always planned for tough decisions to be made in their first weeks, when political capital is at its height, with the sweeties coming later, closer to the next election. So, armed with the (partially true) refrain that everything was their Conservative predecessors’ fault, they’ve embarked on a voyage for the truly politically courageous: releasing prisoners early to reduce overcrowding, removing winter fuel payments from most pensioners, and a tax raid of circa £40 billion, having promised during the election not to raise taxes on working people.

But all has not gone to plan. Operations at the center of government were mismanaged, leading PM Starmer to sack his chief of staff less than 100 days in, and bungled communications have contributed to Labour’s double-digit poll lead all but evaporating.

A series of questions over Starmer’s acceptance of costly freebies were allowed to run for weeks with no credible attempt to shut down the story. Newly released convicts were driven away from prison in supercars, and some are already behind bars again for re-offending. Outraged businesses facing tax hikes are crying foul over Labour’s absurd definition of “working people” — i.e., those who won’t see their taxes increase (“earning less than £100,000 and whose primary income is from employment rather than assets”).

It turns out governing is difficult, and Labour has been caught woefully unprepared.

Balancing Act

Few Americans have heard of Lina Khan, but they’ve definitely heard of the companies clamoring for her removal. The head of the Federal Trade Commission is an aggressive proponent of breaking up Big Tech firms like Google and Meta, and some of Kamala Harris’s wealthiest backers, like LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, and billionaire tech investor Mark Cuban, want her out.

But Khan’s been embraced by progressive candidates, including some fighting in swing states like Wisconsin. Socialist congresswoman AOC has threatened “an out-and-out brawl” were Harris to replace Khan after the election. Harris herself has yet to appear with Khan or openly endorse her antitrust agenda; the Democratic nominee is caught between establishment donors and progressive populists.

For now, Harris’s lips are sealed, but progressives are skeptical that there’s a pro-monopoly caucus among the moderate Republicans she’s trying to woo, and that it will be Little Tech champion and Republican VP nominee JD Vance who’s in step with the public on this.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1034)