Within the next four to six months one of the following is likely to occur: Either Iran will have succeeded in immunizing its nuclear program from an Israeli attack or Israel will attack the Iranian nuclear program.

Insulation from Israeli attack would mean that Iran will almost certainly achieve nuclear weapons capability. The United States could wait longer to attack because of its superior munitions and ability to fly far more sorties from a closer distance than Israel can. The United States could also do far more to destroy the Revolutionary Guard infrastructure and make the toppling of the regime more likely.

But ordering such an attack is a far cry from sending Navy Seals to kill Osama bin Laden and there is no reason to believe that President Obama would ever do so. More likely the United States will hold out the promise to strike later if sanctions are not effective in order to forestall an Israeli attack and then pull the rug out from under Israel.

If Iran achieves nuclear weapons capability Israel will be under mortal threat. Even if Iran never deploys nuclear weapons Hizbullah and Hamas which have close to 100 000 missiles aimed at Israel will thereafter operate under an Iranian nuclear umbrella and Israel’s ability to defend itself against missile barrages will become far more circumscribed.

Nor can there be any assurance that Iran would not use nuclear weapons. An Iranian government website recently published a “jurisprudential justification” to kill all Jews and annihilate Israel by Alireza Forghani who has close ties to the supreme leader Ayatollah Khameinei. Forghani argues that the opportunity must not be lost to remove “this corrupting material [i.e. Israel] ” and that Iran must “take the helm” of that project. Hitleryemach shemo taught us that when our enemies express their intention to exterminate us we should take them literally.

The greatest living student of Islam Professor Bernard Lewis has noted many times that from the theological perspective the threat of nuclear conflagration may be an “incentive” to the mullahs and Ahmadinejad — a means of hastening the “Hidden Imam.” There are other reasons as well why mutual assured destruction (MAD) cannot be relied upon to deter Iran. Unlike the United States Israel is too small geographically to absorb even one or two nuclear weapons and unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War Iran has no second strike capacity. These two factors combined argues Daniel Schwammenthal in the Wall Street Journal increase the temptation for Iran to launch a preemptive strike. In addition Iran could deliver nuclear weapons to terror proxies like Hizbullah against which MAD would have little effect.

One more threat from a nuclear Iran to Israel and the entire world: Numerous other Middle Eastern states — all of them unstable to one degree or another — have indicated they will pursue nuclear weapons if Iran achieves nuclear capacity.

But even if Israel cannot live under threat of nuclear Iran the possibility of a strike is little more attractive. Several miracles were needed for the success of the 1981 Osirak raid on a single Iraqi reactor. And that was relatively simple compared to widely dispersed and deeply embedded Iranian facilities today. Not to mention that Iran is farther from Israel than Iraq.

Even assuming a successful Israeli attack the aftermath would be brutal. Aside from Hizbullah and Hamas’s 100000 rockets capable of reaching every place in Israel Iran has intercontinental missiles capable of reaching Israel. Many of these would likely shower down on Israel in the immediate aftermath of an attack. Even the most optimistic civil defense scenarios speak of casualties in the hundreds in that initial barrage. Jed Babbin a former deputy undersecretary of defense estimates that Israeli air force suppression of Hizbullah and possible Syrian missile fire “will ignite a theater-wide war that Israel may not survive.” Even the entry of Turkey cannot be ruled out.

Nor would Jews outside of Israel be safe. Iran has served notice that it would treat an Israeli attack as an American attack and respond accordingly. Its terrorist proxy Hizbullah would likely unleash sleeper terrorist cells against Jewish and American targets around the world. Oil prices would spike at least initially in the immediate aftermath of an Israeli attack. No matter how secretly overjoyed European and Arab governments would be about the reduction of the immediate Iranian nuclear threat Israel would find itself diplomatically isolated especially if the spike in oil prices sent the already teetering European Union economies over the brink.

THE FOREGOING IS of course speculative. While it summarizes much of the prevailing wisdom there are many unknown variables. Nevertheless it is the necessary background for the question that has long struck me and was put poignantly last week by Rav Moshe Wolfson  mashgiach of Yeshivas Torah Vodaath (as reported in Hamodia): “Why is everyone so apathetic? Everyone is busy with narishkeiten [foolishness]; Don’t we hear the alarm? Don’t we know that we have to pierce the Heavens with our pleas for rachamim [mercy] from the Ribono shel Olam?”

Rav Wolfson emphasized that it is incumbent on every Yid to know of the “growing danger from Iran.… Everyone must know what is happening in regard to other Yidden. Everyone must know what is happening in Eretz Yisrael.

“The leader of Iran says clearly — he repeated it this week — that he wants to kill Rachmana litzlan every Yid in the world just like Haman.” Anyone who is not aroused to beseech the Ribono shel Olam and to strengthen himself in “Torah  tefillah and chesed ” said Rabbi Wolfson is guilty of being “a cruel person ” in the words of the Rambam because the situation will only get worse without teshuvah.

Rav Wolfson quoted the Pesikta that describes how in the year Mashiach comes there will be worldwide conflict beginning with the King of Paras (modern-day Iran) threatening Arabia which we see today. Then Arabia will ally with Edom (today’s Western world) triggering a world-wide war. (The Saudis have been vociferously urging President Obama to be more aggressive in stopping the Iranian nuclear program.)

After noting how similar this scenario is to what we are witnessing today Rav Wolfson told his audience “Maybe the time for Geulah has arrived. We must prepare for the Geulah.” Above all he said quoting Rabbi Yosef Rosenblum  rosh yeshivas Shaarei Yoshor we must know “Hashem is judging us both as a klal and as a prat.”

Speaking of Iran

Recently the Cambridge Student Union hosted a debate on the topic: “This House would rather a nuclear Iran than war.” Douglas Murray arguing against the resolution told the audience that there was little doubt that the House would follow in the path of Neville Chamberlain who proclaimed after the 1938 Munich Conference that he had achieved “peace with honor ” and ended up with neither.

In a tone biting with contempt Murray expressed his relief that not only would the vote of the Cambridge Union prove irrelevant so would anything done by the European nations. Europe lost all right to voice an opinion to Israel on matters concerning its survival in 1973 Murray argued.

Though Israel knew of the massing Syrian and Egyptian armies on the eve of the Yom Kippur War it was deterred from a preemptive strike by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who threatened that the United States would embargo all military resupply if Israel struck first. Only after the combined Arab assault resulted in heavy Israeli casualties and placed Israel on the brink of destruction did President Nixon order desperately needed arms to be sent to Israel.

Not one European country however allowed the American cargo planes to refill in Europe. Every single European country Murray pointed out opted for the end of Israel over offending Arab oil suppliers. And with that choice they lost any moral right to give counsel to Israel on matters of life and death.

Our Happy Cleaning Man

Our apartment building has a new cleaning man for the stairwells and shared areas. Our previous cleaner was a young woman from an underprivileged background and the sight of her sullenly cleaning always provoked guilt feelings on my part. So while I always tried to greet her in a friendly fashion we never had a conversation. When she quit after nearly 15 years in our building I was shocked to learn that she was going to the States to pursue graduate studies.

Our new cleaner is a frum English-speaker who is always smiling or singing. If we have not yet become intimate friends at least we have had a number of pleasant conversations. While learning Mesilas Yesharim this past week I discovered the source of his constant good cheer while doing what some might view as menial work.

In his discussion of kavod (ch. 11) the Ramchal is withering in his scorn of those who would rather take tzedakah or even starve than do work they view as beneath them. “Flay a carcass in the marketplace and do not say ‘I’m an important person; I am a Kohein (Bava Basra 110a).’$$separate quotes$$” As long as a person is concerned with his own kavod for whatever reason “he cannot be a faithful servant of His Master ” writes the Ramchal.

And the converse is also true: When a person overcomes his concern with this own kavod — for instance doing hard physical labor to support his family — he is able to enter into an intimate relationship with Hashem. That I suspect is why our new cleaning man is always cheerful.