Are Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom about to lose their power?

The crises enveloping the governors of America’s largest and fourth-largest states are gathering steam. Andrew Cuomo’s iron grip on New York appears more tenuous by the hour as an FBI investigation of his actions on nursing homes during the COVID-19 pandemic gets underway, while simultaneously accusers come forth with lurid harassment allegations against him. Across the country, a recall effort to topple Gavin Newsom from California’s governorship has long surpassed the required number of signatures.

The fall of either Cuomo or Newsom would mark the first major political loss that Democrats have taken as a result of the pandemic. But would Republicans gain? While watching Democrats squirm gives the GOP a good feeling, the most likely successors in a blue-on-blue fight are other progressives.

Cuomo Collapse

Cuomo’s steep fall is as abrupt as it gets. He was flying high just a few months ago: he published a best-seller touting his leadership during COVID-19, and his daily televised press conferences netted him huge audiences and an Emmy award. Friendly media organs floated his name as attorney general in the Biden administration. When Vice President Kamala Harris held up his nomination for that post, Cuomo even called New York state attorney general Letitia James to intercede for him.

But as Cuomo chatted with James, she was preparing a report blaming him for the deaths of over 15,000 nursing home residents and a subsequent attempt to cover it up. Cuomo’s order forcing nursing homes to accept any patient released from a hospital contributed to the wildfire of fatalities that swept through nursing homes, consuming 40 percent of their residents.

As bad as that was, as Nixon learned so many years ago, it is the cover-up that gets you into hot water. A furious Cuomo read in the paper that Assemblyman Ron Kim, a South Korean–born Democrat, had criticized his nursing home polices. As Kim was bathing his children, the governor called him, giving him a ten-minute lashing and threatening to “destroy” him if he didn’t retract his words.

Cuomo followed through on his threat the next day, rattling off to a stunned press corps a list of alleged financial crimes Kim had committed years before. The reaction was swift. Lawmakers quickly sided with Kim, citing their own experiences with bullying phone calls from Cuomo.

“That’s classic Andrew Cuomo,” New York mayor Bill de Blasio told MSNBC. “A lot of people in New York state have received those phone calls. The bullying is nothing new.”

This was not something that Cuomo could deny away — most members of the media who cover him had also been on the receiving end of such calls.

Then, Stage II began. Lindsey Boylan, a candidate for Manhattan borough president, posted an article describing the hostile work environment fostered by Cuomo. The governor’s office responded with a classic Cuomo move — Boylan’s disciplinary record was “leaked” to the media. It was obvious — and this was confirmed to me by an administration insider — that they were prepared for her.

They were not ready for the next shoe, which dropped on Saturday. The New York Times detailed new harassment allegations from a second former Cuomo staffer, Charlotte Bennett. That blindsided Team Cuomo, and they struggled the entire day to respond. First came a denial — “and we will have no further comment.”

Calls for an investigation mounted, but Cuomo named his own investigator — retired Judge Barbara Jones, who just happened to be a former law partner with his advisor Steve Cohen. This brought massive pressure from the White House and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. After attempting to refer the investigation to Chief Judge Janet DiFiore — whom he had appointed — Cuomo finally caved, and referred the investigation to state attorney general Letitia James.

The administration insider described to me how working for Cuomo involved constant yelling, belittling, tantruming. It meant not letting anything, even a spouse, come between you and Da Boss. And being prepared to accept blame for anything that went wrong. Yet when I asked if he was surprised at the reports, he took a deep breath.

“Am I surprised?” he asked. “Am I surprised?” he repeated. Long pause. “Well, I’m surprised by some of it. But listen, you have to have a thick skin to work there.”

The insider, who refused to be named, described the governor’s office as having a funereal atmosphere since the allegations were lobbed.

“It’s very sad,” he said. “A lot of us believed in him, and you can’t take away from him the work that he did.”

Replacing Cuomo

Despite the gravity of the allegations against Cuomo, those who know him say there is no guarantee he’ll be pushed out. The dearth of allies arising to defend the embattled governor points to a badly kept secret — that Cuomo is feared more than loved. He has accumulated more power in his decade in office than most of his predecessors, and he will not go down without a fight.

“Look,” one Albany source told me, “if there is anybody that can get past this, it’s Andrew Cuomo.”

So far, the heads of the state senate and assembly have issued only brief statements calling for an investigation. But many members, particularly Republicans and progressive Democrats, are demanding resignation or impeachment.

“You are a monster,” tweeted State Senator Alessandra Biaggi, a Bronx progressive, “and it is time for you to go. Now.”

Taking over from Cuomo at this time will present a particular grind. The governor has special emergency powers to unilaterally impose Covid regulations, which Cuomo has liberally taken advantage of, many times on a daily basis. These are likely to be curtailed, but it will probably just mean a board named by the legislature to veto any rule within a certain time frame.

In addition, budget negotiations are scheduled to begin shortly, with a deadline at the end of March. It is unknown how lawmakers will navigate that stream if Cuomo is still in office. Three names come up frequently in the discussion of possible Cuomo successors: Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Attorney General Letitia James, and Mayor Bill de Blasio.

Kathy Hochul

Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul would take over if Cuomo resigns or is impeached, but would only serve to the end of his term. A former congresswoman with a moderate streak, she has been sidelined by Cuomo to such an extent that she makes zero appearances in his latest book.

“She is irrelevant, perfect for ribbon cuttings,” says one person who has dealt with her a few times. “She is totally out of the loop.”

She is an assiduous worker, though, making a half dozen speeches or visits every day across the state.

“You’re never ready to take over as governor of New York,” the administration insider said. “But there will be a transition, like there always is.”

Hochul has relationships with the Orthodox community and is not expected to be worse on the community than Cuomo has been, an askan said. But elections are next year, and Hochul is not expected to be a serious contender.

Letitia James

The preliminary front-runner to the governor’s office is the person leading the charge for bringing him down. Letitia James was elected state attorney general with Cuomo’s blessing after her predecessor, Eric Schneiderman, was ousted in 2019 following allegations similar to those now being brought against Cuomo.

James is said to be seeking the governor’s seat. Despite Cuomo endorsing her for attorney general, Albany insiders say there is no love lost between the two. A former city councilwoman from Crown Heights, she became New York City’s public advocate in 2013. She has warm relationships with the Orthodox community and has filed several lawsuits to enable frum communities to grow in neighborhoods that weren’t welcoming.

James is seen as the candidate most acceptable to the widest range of voters. She is a woman, black, liberal, and is close to the Jews.

Bill de Blasio

New York City’s progressive mayor has also not ruled out a run. Bill de Blasio has long been a nemesis of Cuomo, his former boss when they both worked in the Clinton administration, and the governor seems to relish undercutting and belittling him whenever possible.

“Cuomo is a bully and de Blasio is incompetent,” one Albany wag once dryly tweeted. “Rinse, wash, repeat.”

The mayor’s reputation notwithstanding, he was attentive to the Orthodox community’s needs before Covid hit. If someone such as Public Advocate Jumaane Williams were to run for the seat, as widely expected, de Blasio would be seen as a safer alternative.

The ultra-liberal mayor is extremely unpopular outside the city, and just slightly less so inside — a survey showed Donald Trump to be more popular among state voters than de Blasio. But polls suggest that in a crowded field, de Blasio could eke out a win.

The Newsom Recall

While Cuomo is engulfed with calls for impeachment, California governor Gavin Newsom is under a very real threat of recall. Nearly two million Golden State voters have signed petitions to remove Newson, well in excess of the 1.5 million signatures required under state law.

“He takes bad advice, shows poor judgment, and he makes bad decisions,” said Orrin Heatlie, self-proclaimed leader of the recall movement. He cites a litany of complaints that has galvanized voters: “The highest homelessness in the nation, highest taxes in the nation, he released 20,000 prisoners and added 20,000 people to the homeless count, he created a sanctuary state.”

But the main complaint against Newsom has been his Covid policies. As Cuomo did, Newsom signed an order forcing nursing homes to accept residents from hospitals, even if they tested positive for Covid. And he was repeatedly caught violating his own rules. After ordering closures of eating establishments, he was photographed dining with a large group of health care lobbyists at a restaurant, and just last week was again seen at a party in a diner.

“He’s just not very bright,” Heatlie said. “We have to find solutions, and he’s part of the problem.”

The deadline for submitting recall petitions is March 17; by then Heatlie hopes to have over two million signatures. The recall election would then happen in late summer or early fall, with two questions on the ballot — whether Newsom should be recalled, and who should replace him.

Conservatives are spearheading the recall movement. Organizers are not legally permitted to support a replacement, but they hope that in a crowded field, a Republican could shoulder aside rivals and follow in the footsteps of Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

There is recent historial precedent for a recall: Democrat Gray Davis was recalled in 2003. Heatlie said that the lesson he drew from that was that “you have to be very organized and you have to have a plan.” The effort claims 20,000 volunteers, 5,000 of whom are active, 150 administrators, 27 regional managers, three state supervisors, and one overall supervisor.

Newsom and the Jews

Dr. Irving Lebovic, a California askan, says he has mixed feelings about the recall effort. Newsom is disliked by many in the local Orthodox community due to his outspoken advocacy of progressive issues.

“But I don’t think they understand what the political ramifications are and what the alternatives are,” says Dr. Lebovic.

“I have a personal relationship with him,” he notes, “which is very helpful. This helped in keeping shuls open and allowing yeshivos to reopen during Covid.”

Dr. Lebovic says that the governor is working to overcome his bad image, though this conversation took place before Newsom was again caught violating his own Covid rules by dining at a restaurant.

“If you had asked me this question three or four months ago, I would have said they will never get the signatures,” he says. “But he’s taking this seriously, he’s trying to get things open. When the numbers in California were good, he was doing great. When they went down, his ratings dropped. When the numbers get better, his numbers will also rise.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 851)