If Netanyahu fails, there is no guarantee that his rivals would reap the fruits of their stubborn resistance

The normally unflappable Binyamin Netanyahu has now proven to be quite fallible.

His strategy of divide and conquer — grooming political rivals, then pitting one against the other to weaken them — backfired on him when those rivals won more seats than expected. Flush with success, they refused to play ball with Bibi.

The “anyone but Bibi” forces — the declared, like Yair Lapid, Gideon Saar, and Avigdor Lieberman, and the undeclared, like Naftali Bennett — are the majority. They were holding firm at press time, just 24 hours from the deadline for Netanyahu to either finalize his coalition or return his mandate to President Rivlin.

Both Bibi and the anti-Bibi forces were working around the clock to find the unlikely combination that would cobble together a coalition, or at least keep their hopes alive even if Rivlin handed the mandate to someone new.

If Netanyahu fails, there is no guarantee that his rivals would reap the fruits of their stubborn resistance. This group, who converged to purge Bibi, run the gamut from right to left, Jewish to Muslim, and everyone in between. A bunch of folks with wildly different backgrounds, perspectives, and political goals.

But they worked hard at coalition building. If they were to get the nod, and succeeded, the face of the State of Israel would change dramatically, and not only because they wouldn’t have Bibi to kick around anymore. For Israelis who’ve grown accustomed to a Likud-led coalition, it would be a shocker.

In short, a new center-left Knesset majority could very well push through laws to change the status quo on religion and state, and curtail the power of the rabbinate to allow for civil marriage, simpler conversions, and public transportation on Shabbos.

Financially, a center-left government, especially with Avigdor Lieberman as finance minister, would slash child support payments that help chareidi families make ends meet in favor of higher pensions for retirees. A Lapid-Lieberman government would also push through a much tougher draft law with higher quotas for chareidim and stricter enforcement and penalties for failure to meet those quotas.

The ramifications for Israel’s foreign policy, with a coalition that includes Labor and Meretz, combined with the malevolent destabilizing forces of the Arab parties from the “outside,” could be far-reaching and potentially dangerous. Would a new Palestinian intifada, or escalation of rocket attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran be met with force, or with concessions to assuage the guilty consciences of the Israeli left?

This could all come to pass even if Naftali Bennett or Gideon Saar, who are considered right wing, head such a coalition, and even though most of their partners, like Lapid, Lieberman, and Benny Gantz, are center-right on foreign policy. They will ultimately be beholden to Labor, Meretz, and Arab support.

As neophyte leaders with a need for public approval to cement their standing, they will be showered with flattery and encouragement by the left-wing media, which will contrast their enlightened ways with Netanyahu’s Neanderthal approach — much as the US media denigrated Donald Trump, who could do no right, and now adulate Joe Biden, who can do no wrong.

The conventional wisdom is that such a patchwork government, if it came to pass, would not last long. Considering Israel’s chronic political instability of the past two years, that’s a safe assumption; however, much will be dependent on whether the Knesset minority, which would include the Likud, the chareidim, and the religious Zionists, can mount a robust and effective opposition.

Attracting New Chareidi Voters

Part of that is contingent upon how quickly the Likud holds new primaries, and whether they decide to elect a new party head to replace Netanyahu.

Stripped of the perquisites that come with being prime minister, Netanyahu would be burdened with his trial on breach of trust and bribery charges. He will go down in history as one of the world’s great leaders of the current century, but as his trial progresses, the chances increase that he will seek a plea bargain under which he agrees to leave public life in return for dropped or reduced charges.

The Likud is long overdue for a major housecleaning. That includes a new party leader, and ending the stranglehold of longstanding apparatchiks by replacing them in primaries with a younger and more dynamic slate that is more representative of Likud strongholds in so many cities and towns in rural Israel. In the last election, the Likud was plagued with comparatively low turnout. They need new names and faces to energize their base.

As for the chareidi parties, many of their MKs have noted that they have survived in the opposition before and will make peace with that again, if they have to, but it rings a bit hollow this time.

In the March 2021 election, while overall voter turnout dipped by 3 percent, the vote totals for both Shas and UTJ dropped by 10 percent from those of the previous election in March 2020. Both parties need to combat this erosion and come to grips with the fact that their combined representation in the Knesset has remained static at 16 seats in the last four elections, despite a sharp rise in eligible first-time, 18-year-old voters.

Perhaps the provocative actions taken by a center-left government — cuts in popular stipends, or a draconian draft law — might re-energize that base in future elections, but some chareidi voters might become disillusioned and cast about for alternatives.

Some exit polls showed that about 3 percent of chareidim cast their votes for Bezalel Smotrich’s religious Zionist party. But that doesn’t account for all of the erosion from previous elections, including lost votes from the growing class of “balabatish” chareidim whose needs and horizons are more comprehensive.

Chareidi politicians, in consultation with the gedolim, may want to sponsor creative programs and policies that include small business loans and cutting red tape for chareidi entrepreneurs, and broader educational and job opportunities in suitable settings, including the public sector. Perhaps the time has come to be proactive in spurring chareidi aliyah from Jews in chutz l’Aretz who have grown increasingly concerned about anti-Semitism from the left and the right, the intrusion of increasingly warped values, and a steep decline in both public discourse and morality.

If the Likud, and the chareidim, do end up serving time in the opposition, but emerge stronger after reinventing themselves, then that time will have been spent wisely, and might also be abbreviated. It would also be far more productive than just sitting back and waiting for the center-left to self-destruct, which could end up being a self-defeating strategy.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 859)