Israel still hopes it can square its position with the Biden administration

Photo: Flash90

Danny Danon won’t ever forget his conversation with world-renowned Holocaust survivor and historian Elie Wiesel at the United Nations on International Holocaust Remembrance Day in 2015, when Danon was Israel’s ambassador to the UN.

Negotiations were at a peak then between Iran and the P5+1 nations — which included the United States — on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known in the vernacular as the Iran nuclear deal.

Iran had threatened to wipe Israel off the map. The US promised to never sign a deal enabling Iran to build nuclear weapons. Wiesel dispensed some sage advice to Danon: “He told me I should listen more carefully to the threats of our enemies than to the promises of our allies.”

Danon retold this story to members of the foreign press in Jerusalem on Holocaust Remembrance Day last week. He was trying to convey Israel’s growing concern over the Biden administration’s waltz in Vienna last week to entice Iran with unilateral concessions to return to the JCPOA. Danon also expressed Israel’s frustration with the US decisions to restore funding to the Palestinian Authority and to UNRWA — the agency responsible for perpetuating and overstating the Palestinian refugee issue.

When I asked Danon whether members of Biden’s foreign policy team were hostile to Israel, Danon drew back.

“We are not in a position to give grades to the appointees of President Biden,” Danon said.

However, there is no denying that many key appointees, including Rob Malley — the US envoy to Iran — and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, brokered or supported the JCPOA when they served in leading roles in the Obama administration, which inked the deal.

Danon said he prefers to look forward, not back, but either way, the view is disconcerting.

“We don’t judge them by their previous statements,” Danon said. “We judge them by the decisions they come to today. And yes, we are worried about those decisions.”

While several Republican senators warned Biden against lifting economic sanctions on Iran, there is little they can do as long as Democrats hold a Congressional majority.

Danon says Israel still hopes it can square its position with the Biden administration.

“We have a quiet dialogue and we speak about everything,” Danon said. “We value it. It’s very important for us. At the end of the day, the one to make the decision will be President Biden, and I hope he will not approve the voices that are trying to push the US to re-enter the JCPOA as it is.”

Pressure Is a Two-Way Street

Another topic I probed with Danon was the conventional wisdom that the Biden administration is not interested in pursuing an Israeli-Palestinian peace track. Danon suggested that like most countries, the US is preoccupied with battling the COVID-19 pandemic, but once that battle is won, he expects to see more engagement from a lot of directions — for better and for worse.

“You can look at it as an opening for more pressure [on Israel],” Danon said, “but I look at it as an opportunity to continue the momentum we built with the moderate Arab countries in the region, and I believe the US will be able to help us.

However, the Biden administration has taken a few steps backward there as well. It announced a review of Trump’s decision to sell F-35 fighter jets to the UAE, and is also reassessing relations with Saudi Arabia. Lacking strong US support, the Saudis are highly unlikely to establish any form of overt, diplomatic relations with Israel.

That being the case, I asked Danon if Israel’s pursuit of warmer relationships with Arab and Muslim nations is futile without the US dangling goodies like F-35s as a reward.

“If you look back,” Danon says, “and I was involved in these negotiations, it was very helpful to have the US as a mediator. We did a lot of things quietly at the UN with some of those countries, but once you had the US pushing us to do things publicly and put things together, it definitely helped.”

Painting Saar into a Corner

Today, Danon is chairman of World Likud, which operates in 46 countries as the party’s global communication and networking wing. While that role doesn’t give him any say in the current coalition negotiations, Danon does have his opinions, and here, too, he is cautiously optimistic.

“Look at the Knesset,” Danon says. “Last year we had eight factions. Today, we have 13 factions. That’s the story of the election. There are many small parties — from the left to the right — that understand that if they go for [a fifth] election, they will not come back. Those are the powers that will push the system to come together. Maybe it will not last for long, but I believe we will see a new government [formed].”

All of the political jockeying will be frontloaded early in the week as Israelis take a break Wednesday and Thursday for IDF Remembrance Day and Independence Day.

Reports surfaced on Motzaei Shabbos that Naftali Bennett told Prime Minister Netanyahu he would join forces with him if Netanyahu can convince religious Zionist party leader Bezalel Smotrich to allow formation of a coalition with external support from Ra’am, an Arab party.

For Smotrich, that’s a major red line. He sees that as a point of no return that would empower Arab parties as perennial power brokers and endanger Israel’s status as a Jewish state.

For Bibi, it represents a political opportunity to paint Likud rebel Gideon Saar into a corner. Saar too has set a red line — he will not serve in any coalition with Netanyahu as prime minister.

Bibi would love nothing more than to somehow persuade Smotrich to cross his red line, or at least keep him quiet long enough so the message gets across that Saar remains the sole impediment to Bibi’s ability to form a majority coalition of the center-right, national-religious, and chareidi parties.

That way, if Saar doesn’t cross his red line and join in, Bibi can tar him with the blame — either for forcing him into a coalition that requires Arab support, or for forcing a fifth election, which could make Saar’s New Hope one of the small parties that Danon suggested may not make the cut the next time around.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 856)