In the Middle East chess game, Bibi sacrifices Gaza for Iran 

T

he return of Israel’s final deceased hostage, Ran Gvili Hy”d , brought a measure of closure to his family and Israel in general, and means that for the first time since 2014, there are no more Israelis held in Gaza.

The 11th hour battle over whether to proceed with the Trump plan for Gaza, even before all the hostages had been returned, encapsulated the behind-the-scenes struggle over Gaza’s future.

Bibi Netanyahu is careful to keep his disagreements with Donald Trump behind closed doors, but the president’s frontmen and their plans for a postwar Gaza are a different story.

“Witkoff has become a lobbyist for Qatari interests and is taking revenge on Netanyahu for refusing to open the Rafah crossing before the return of the hostage Ran Gvili,” a senior Israeli official was quoted this week in Yedioth Ahronoth, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The newspaper that sits at the heart of Netanyahu’s legal cases is anything but a pro-Bibi mouthpiece, to put it mildly. Yet at the present moment — when Sheldon Adelson’s Israel Hayom has turned its back on Netanyahu and adopted a friendlier posture toward Naftali Bennett — this was apparently the last remaining platform for conveying such a message.

The anonymous briefing was telling. Every time the news channels that are hostile to Bibi publish something negative about Netanyahu-Trump relations, the Prime Minister’s Office rushes to issue a swift denial. This time, however — from Sunday morning, when the report was published, until these lines were written on Monday — there was silence on the subject. Statements were issued, but there was no denial of the official’s remarks.

“Witkoff pushed to bring our greatest rival, Turkey, right up to our border,” the senior official continued. “The clock is ticking toward a confrontation with Turkey, which would pose a real threat to our security. Can you imagine the United States agreeing to China sending forces to its border? He’s pushing to open the crossings to Gaza and move to the next stage of the peace plan. Witkoff has become a committed lobbyist for Qatar’s interests — the same Qatar that has turned into a poison machine against Jews and Israel.”

On Monday morning, this time in Israel Hayom, the other side of the same coin was presented, with a headline quoting an Israeli source claiming that Witkoff is working to prevent an American strike on Iran.

Under Democratic administrations, Netanyahu enjoyed the privilege of confronting the president directly and turning lemons into lemonade, in the face of Israeli public opinion and Republicans in the United States. With Trump, confrontation is not an option, and caution is meticulously observed, even as resentment mounts.

Netanyahu’s message got through to the Americans on the same day that Witkoff and Netanyahu hurried to meet and later reported a productive dialogue. Publicly, not a bad word would be said, but behind closed doors Netanyahu made himself heard.

What’s Netanyahu’s strategy?

In a multifront war, Netanyahu, a chess enthusiast, prefers to sacrifice a rook in order to capture the queen. With eyes fixed on Washington in anticipation of Trump’s moves vis-à-vis Iran, Netanyahu has no interest in opening a front with the administration over Gaza. The prevailing assumption in Israel is that as long as Turkish or Qatari soldiers are not stationed on Gazan soil, Netanyahu will grin and bear it in the interests of a united front against Iran, which remains an existential threat.

Within the cabinet, that position costs Bibi political capital to sustain. Before Ran Gvili’s repatriation, Minister Dudi Amsalem, voicing right-wing sentiment, explained that making this clause a condition for moving to the next stage of the Gaza plan is the real test. “If we give in, we return to October 6, 2023 — when our word meant nothing. The region needs to get used to the fact that things have changed, and what is agreed with Israel is carried out to the end.”

Away from the politics, the return of the final hostage means that the yellow-ribboned hostage release campaign can finally close up its operations, and the many images of Ran Gvili that have fluttered over intersections for the past weeks can come down.

Inevitably, attention will refocus on the country’s daunting security challenges.

Eyes remain fixed on Tehran, and in the nearer Gaza arena, the next round is approaching. Only the future will reveal who breaks first — Hamas with its weapons, or Israel with its promises.

Shuffling the Deck

Israeli governments often come to an early end — but will one that was in power during Israel’s worst disaster defy the odds? Netanyahu’s internal meddling in Agudas Yisrael this week was intended to pave the way for that to happen.

This serves Netanyahu on two fronts: First, by engineering the appointment of Yisrael Eichler as deputy communications minister last week, paving the way for Yitzchak Pindrus of Degel HaTorah to enter the Knesset in his place, Netanyahu secured an additional chareidi vote — a Degel HaTorah MK instead of an Agudah one — in favor of the draft law.

Second, it was a demonstration of strength to the rest of the bloc, proving that his desire to continue the term is genuine and that he retains full control over mergers and breakups.

Netanyahu views completing the term as an achievable goal, and this week his office spoke of advancing elections to September 2026, just over a month before the legally mandated date, in order to avoid campaigning during October, when various memorial ceremonies are held.

If the draft law is put to a divided vote under differing directives from the Ashkenazic Moatzos Gedolei HaTorah — with Agudah’s Moetzes taking a firm stance against the law, and Degel HaTorah’s Moetzes allowing a vote in favor — the only ones who could cite this as grounds for a breakup would be the Agudah members.

But here’s the thing: According to polls Netanyahu presented ahead of the previous elections, the electoral threshold danger hovers mainly over Agudas Yisrael, not Degel HaTorah. From a pure realpolitik perspective, Agudah lacks the leverage to threaten withdrawal.

The only faction that could numerically carry out such a threat, theoretically, is Degel HaTorah. Netanyahu, therefore, emerges only strengthened by the move, while fragmentation abounds on the political left.

The combination of a draft law and a budget will allow Netanyahu to buy time and nearly complete a full term — something that seemed impossible just over two years ago.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1097)