US military aid to Israel will end sooner than expected, says Bibi

Photo: Shutterstock/ Maxim Elramsisy

T

he era of Israel’s dependence on US military aid is drawing to a close sooner than expected. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu explicitly made this point during an interview with the Economist’s editor in chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, noting that the topic arose during his recent meeting with President Trump, and that a plan to taper US military assistance to zero within a decade is “in the works.”

Senator Lindsey Graham (R–SC), a prominent supporter of Israel, promptly responded, tweeting that he intends to introduce legislation to accelerate this timeline. Doing so would avoid the need to negotiate a new ten-year US military aid package for Israel to replace the one set to expire in 2028. This would win broad support from both the US Congress and the Knesset.

If Israel procures its military equipment independently, using its own resources, it will gain more strategic autonomy. Israel’s detractors would have a much harder time arguing that aid to Israel is a one-way street or that Israel is an economic burden. Israel’s move toward greater military self-sufficiency will allow the US to reallocate aid to other priorities, reducing the likelihood of US intervention in Israel’s defense.

Netanyahu told the Economist that he deeply appreciates US military support to date, but that within the next decade Israel will have a $1 trillion-a-year economy and that Israel “has come of age,” signaling its readiness for a new age of self-reliance, within limits.

“That’s not saying I don’t want to fight for the allegiance and support of the American people — I do,” Bibi added. “You have to be crazy not to. And it’s deep.”

An Israeli declaration of independence from US military aid in 2026, as America celebrates its 250th anniversary of independence from Great Britain, could help Israel regain bipartisan support amid waning backing from both Democrats and Republicans.

Recent economic developments indicate the timing is right.

The shekel recently reached its strongest level against the dollar in four years, trading at approximately 3.15 to the dollar. At that exchange rate, America’s $3.8 billion annual military package is less than NIS 12 billion — just 10% of the NIS 112 billion the cabinet allocated for defense in the 2026 budget. While substantial, it remains manageable, given Israel’s total budget of NIS 662 billion, with defense expenditures accounting for roughly 17%. This period presents an optimal time to leverage the strong shekel for necessary acquisitions.

Beyond its national budget, Israel is tapping the cash-flushed international markets for support.

Just last week, the Ministry of Finance raised $6 billion in international bond markets to cover military expenses and rehabilitate war-damaged infrastructure. The bonds, with maturities of five, ten, and 30 years, carried interest rates just 1.2% to 1.5% higher than US Treasuries of comparable maturities. For those who like to claim Israel is internationally isolated, Gulf State Arab nations purchased several hundred million dollars’ worth of bonds. Five major global financial institutions collaborated on the underwriting: Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. Demand was brisk, and the offering was oversubscribed sixfold, meaning Israel could have raised $36 billion if it had chosen to do so.

With these resources secured, Israel must set new military procurement priorities, deciding which weapons systems and munitions to acquire externally or through joint production with friendly, reliable nations, and which to develop domestically to avoid supply chain vulnerabilities.

Israel must act decisively and follow the lead of its neighbors. Egypt, Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia all buy American, but they also procure weapons from a variety of other countries, including China and Russia, without worrying that Uncle Sam will wag a finger.

Whether they admit it publicly or not, it is clear that Arab countries respect Israel more when it shows independence from the US. As Ron Dermer, Bibi’s former top advisor, has noted, the Abraham Accords came after Israel defied President Obama over his Iran nuclear deal.

The more Israel asserts itself and makes its own decisions about war and peace without seeking US permission, the more its unruly neighbors will respect and fear it. —

Is J.D. Vance Inevitable?

Labeling a presidential hopeful as “inevitable” carries significant risk for the bearer. Hillary Clinton learned this the hard way.

Vice President J.D. Vance, the latest to bear this label, should be chafing at the neck nearly three years before the 2028 presidential election.

Vance may hold a 37-point lead over potential rivals in the Real Clear Politics Poll Average, but the designation feels premature. The 2026 Congressional midterms are still ten months away. Anything can happen. The midterms will be a crucial indicator, boosting momentum for the winning party’s candidate and potentially affecting perceptions of that candidate’s inevitability.

Vance will also have to run on the Trump administration’s track record, and who knows what that will look like in 2028. Already, Congressional Republicans have begun breaking with Trump. Last week, five Senate Republicans voted to limit his power to launch further military strikes on Venezuela. Several prominent Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, oppose seizing Greenland, while 17 House Republicans joined Democrats to extend Obamacare subsidies for three more years.

Republicans have good reason to break with Trump on health-care subsidies, a major pocketbook issue. While it’s too early to call this a trend, watch closely how Republicans who defy Trump fare in the midterms. The better they do, the less inevitable J.D. Vance will look.

The Biggest Winners of Trump 2.0

The left-leaning Foreign Policy polls its network of analysts, past and present politicians and diplomats, commentators, and journalists, this week asking: “Who’s the biggest winner of President Trump’s second term?” Here are the results:

• 43% Saudi Arabia
• 30% China
• 13% Argentina
• 10% Pakistan
• 4% Syria

He Was Almost Our Vice President

“Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences.”

—Minnesota governor Tim Walz explaining his decision to halt his reelection campaign due to the widespread welfare scandal affecting his state

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1095)