In terms of election outcomes, global conflicts and resolutions, and the ongoing struggle between good and evil?

1) Republicans Hold on to Congress: A Contrarian Perspective

Admittedly, this prediction contradicts prevailing expert opinion and historical patterns. Pollsters nearly unanimously forecast a Democratic takeover of Congress in the November midterms. In the past 100 years, the president’s party has gained seats in midterm elections only twice.

I base my prediction that Republicans will retain control partly on the Cook Political Report, which has a strong track record, and partly on instinct. Cook’s latest survey, before we went to print, shows Republicans favored to win 53 Senate seats, holding on to their slim majority, and 210 House seats, compared to 208 for Democrats. It takes 218 seats to win a majority, so both parties are close. Of the 17 tossup races, Republicans currently hold 12 seats and Democrats five, giving the GOP a slight mathematical edge, unless voters go to the polls thinking, when in doubt, vote them out.

Beyond the numbers, instinct shapes my view. The economy should improve, and interest rates and inflation are poised to fall. President Trump may not be on the ballot, but he’s gearing up for a vigorous campaign. Democrats are at a disadvantage because they lack a clear, compelling standard-bearer to rally their base.

2) The Israeli Right Retains Power: Common Ground

This call is somewhat contrarian, as most polls — except one — show the opposition parties either ahead of or neck-and-neck with Netanyahu’s bloc. The exception is Direct Polls, founded by Netanyahu ally Shlomo Filber, which indicates the center-right would secure enough seats to maintain a majority.

A recent Direct Polls survey I cited in last week’s column shows opposition voters backing Netanyahu on security issues. Center-left parties have about 1.5 million votes, enough to keep elections close. They are motivated voters, driven by concerns that a popular, reelected right-wing coalition could trigger a constitutional crisis with the High Court, which is the left’s last bastion of power. However, despite their motivation, the opposition faces a significant challenge: They lack a figure with Netanyahu’s international prominence. Without a leader of his stature to rally around, the opposition remains fragmented, making it challenging to present a cohesive and compelling alternative to the right-wing coalition.

Netanyahu’s coalition is fractured, mainly among the chareidi parties frustrated by Bibi’s unkept promises. Despite some grumbling, chareidim remain loyal and will continue voting for chareidi parties. They have little choice but to align with the center-right, not the center-left parties that advocate sanctions against chareidim who don’t serve in the IDF. Elections must be held by November, but Bibi may set an earlier date to leverage his alliance with Trump, who remains popular in Israel.

3) China Delays Action on Taiwan: Until Further Notice

The latest round of Chinese military exercises threatening Taiwan has sparked new fears that 2026 could be the year Beijing makes a decisive move to conquer the island. China continues to maintain its longstanding claim that Taiwan is an inseparable part of mainland China, decades after Taiwan’s leaders fled to the island following the Communist takeover of mainland China.

Since 2021, the Pentagon has assumed that China has set 2027 as a target for invading Taiwan, a move that would be a financial bonanza for China, aside from a political victory. Taiwan produces two-thirds of the world’s semiconductors and almost all of the advanced chips that power electrical grids, AI, computing devices, and automotive systems.

That said, it’s more likely that China is using the military exercises to pressure Taiwan into yielding and reunifying with the mainland on Beijing’s terms.

Financial market analysts who have modeled a Chinese invasion argue that such an invasion would be disruptive and disastrous for the global economy, given China’s central role. Taiwan is also highly defensible, and while China isn’t intimidated by the US or President Trump, that doesn’t mean it’s ready to pick a fight that might draw US and even Japanese military intervention.

4) Trump Ends Russia-Ukraine Mediation: Time Waster

Despite his best efforts, President Trump and his envoys have failed to end the war, which Trump insisted would never have begun if he had still been in office when fighting broke out.

The differences between Russia and Ukraine are irreconcilable. Ukraine’s constitution formally prohibits ceding the territory that Russia has captured. Vladimir Putin would risk domestic backlash and jeopardize his rule if he appeared to be caving to Trump. Even if the two sides reached a territorial compromise, Putin also opposes many of Ukraine’s demands for long-term security guarantees, especially those that include NATO, which Putin sees as an ongoing threat to Russia.

Putin also doesn’t trust the US or Trump, which is another reason American mediation has not produced results. As the midterms draw closer and domestic politics supplant foreign policy as a voter concern, Trump and his team may decide to withdraw from the mediation and focus on more achievable goals.

5) Regime Change in Iran: Ready or Not?

Predicting regime change, its timing, and who takes over is chancy. At press time, open-source intelligence reports we follow indicate that Iranian leaders were fueling their “getaway vehicles” in case they’re forced to flee amid the riots engulfing Iran. It would be a miracle from Heaven if Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile threats, along with its global export of terror, ended without Israel or the US having to fire another shot, but the American armed forces’ raid on Venezuela and its daring heist of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in broad daylight show that regime change is rarely peaceful. More likely is that Iran splinters into rival governments, as in Libya, or follows the Syrian model, in which new extremists replace the old ones.

Iran’s ruthless Islamic Revolutionary government, over 46 years of rule, has established a legacy rooted in fanatical religious devotion to its cause. It has also run Iran’s economy into the ground, so Iran faces years of hardship, regardless of whether a kinder, gentler government emerges.

6) Anti-Semitism Cools as Hot Button Issue: Losing Steam

The following might fall into the realm of wishful thinking, as anti-Semitism is ancient, structural, and often irrational. That said, it’s also cyclical. In recent years, anti-Semitism has drawn significant attention, frequently dominating headlines and political debates. However, recent developments, particularly revulsion over the Chanukah terror attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, have raised public outrage and political mobilization against anti-Semitism.

People also get bored easily and look for something new to hang their hats on. The podcasters and influencers making a fortune by pushing anti-Semitism will need new material to keep their audiences rapt. Prominent political figures or respected celebrities could spur this badly needed shift by setting a goal of elevating public discourse.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1094)