The Trump administration would love to make a deal with a reliable Venezuelan leader

Photo: AP Images

President Trump and members of his administration have offered many good reasons to pick a fight with Venezuela and its president, Nicolas Maduro.

The State Department has declared Venezuela a “major drug-transit country” and a key corridor for illegal drugs entering the United States.

In addition to its role as a drug dealer, Venezuela’s oppressive dictatorship has driven hundreds of thousands of citizens to flee their failed homeland and become illegal immigrants in the US.

Political instability has led to significant financial disputes and the near-total disruption of oil exports.

Venezuela still owes US oil giant ConocoPhillips nearly $9 billion in damages stemming from the expropriation of the company’s Venezuelan oil assets by Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s predecessor, in 2007. Both Chavez and Maduro fired oil industry executives and workers in a series of labor disputes, triggering a brain drain and a precipitous 75% drop in oil production over the past 20 years. Venezuela still holds the world’s largest known untapped oil reserves. The Trump administration would love to make a deal with a reliable Venezuelan leader to unlock this potential.

Beyond economic considerations, Venezuela’s geopolitical alignment is a huge concern. It is one of Iran’s top South American proxies and harbors Hezbollah terrorists posing as legitimate Lebanese immigrants, providing financial and logistical cover for illicit weapons production. The animosity with the US has led oil-rich Venezuela to embrace Russia and China, undermining America’s security and economic interests. Trump would like to win them back.

Finally, ousting Maduro would add momentum to a trend seen in a half-dozen South American countries over the past few years, in which voters have ousted leftists at the polls in favor of right-wing governments.

In its 2025 National Security Strategy Report, the administration added a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, formulated by President James Monroe in 1823, reiterating the need for American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.

Tiberio Graziani, president of Vision and Global Trends, explained that Trump’s updated version aims to prevent powers from outside our hemisphere, such as Russia and China, from gaining control over critical infrastructure, natural resources, and digital networks, and from flexing their political influence in America’s backyard.

Taken together, these factors provide strong reasons for US intervention; however, they face counterarguments, making the case for intervention far less compelling.

Venezuela is a relatively small player in the global drug trade, accounting for an estimated 8% to 13% of illegal drugs reaching America. The same holds for unlawful immigration. Just 4%, or about 486,000 of America’s estimated 14 million unauthorized immigrants, hail from Venezuela, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

Regarding the oil issues, the ConocoPhillips lawsuit has dragged on for 18 years. Good luck collecting, no matter who’s in power. Oil refiners prize Venezuelan “heavy” oil for producing jet fuel and diesel for ships and trains, but for years, Canada and Mexico have made up the bulk of the Venezuelan shortfall. It would take nearly a decade and a $100 billion investment to bring the debt-ridden, dilapidated Venezuelan oil industry back to full capacity.

Similarly, concerns about Venezuela’s international alliances may be overstated. In the axis of evil, Venezuela is a spoke in the wheel. Iran is in the driver’s seat. Who would you target first, if you were president?

The current emphasis on Venezuela appears inconsistent for a president who has positioned himself as a peacemaker in conflicts worldwide and has set a personal goal of winning a Nobel Peace Prize, not a Nobel Prize for War.

It could also become politically costly, testing the patience of the president’s MAGA supporters. For now, most are giving the president the benefit of the doubt, but the longer the standoff drags on, the more MAGA natives will get restless, unless Trump keeps his word to avoid foreign entanglements and focus on the economy.

The November 2026 midterms are 11 months away, by which time Trump will be nearly two years into his second term. Voters will judge him and the candidates he supports on his wins and losses, at home and abroad, and not on Joe Biden’s track record.

If the Midterms Were Held Today

The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrats hold a 3.7% advantage over Republicans. Seventeen of the 18 polls conducted in the past month show Democrats leading. Only one, Scott Rasmussen’s RMG Research, shows Republicans ahead (by 4%).

China Won’t Back Down

The US and President Trump aren’t the only ones formulating long-term strategies.

In May, China released a white paper characterizing the US as its primary rival, accusing it of pursuing a policy of strategic encirclement through sanctions, trade wars, and military alliances, and citing China’s right to an “active defense” to protect its interests.

If China has no intention of backing down, how can America counter this?

Ryan C. Berg, director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote a paper last year saying the US is paying the price for decades of “strategic neglect” in Latin America, but when it comes to competing, better late than never.

Berg recommends focusing on the future-trending economic sectors, including semiconductors, telecommunications, AI, critical minerals, green technology, and cloud computing, and then applying the full weight of American financial clout to provide Latin American governments and businesses with a viable, cost-competitive alternative to any Chinese offer.

“For too long, the Chinese offer has been the best offer for partners and allies — too often because it has been the only offer,” Berg adds, noting there is ample time to push back, and the Trump administration can still leave a legacy of placing the US on a more competitive footing with China.

Repeat after Me

When Prime Minister Netanyahu meets with President Trump next week, keep in mind what America’s UN Ambassador Mike Waltz told Yonit Levi of Israel Channel 12: “We can be friends and allies and have tough conversations. The relationship is strong, and sometimes we have strong views and are passionate about the issues, as we should be.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1092)