This column has made it a year-end tradition

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ow many individuals get involved with moving policy, shaping politics, or running presidential elections? It’s tough, arduous work. But anyone can take a stab at predictions. This column has made it a year-end tradition. Here are my: 6 Big, Bold Predictions for 2026

1) The Democratic Party Flips the House

I don’t see a scenario where the Democrats don’t retake the House. History is on their side. The midterms are typically catastrophic for the party in power. This year, that’s the Republicans, who won’t have Trump on the ballot. Adding to this are a slew of Republican House retirements. You have a perfect storm. I predict that the Democrats ride this storm to victory with a 12-seat majority that allows future Speaker Hakeem Jeffries to firmly control the House.

Additionally, I believe that deep-red states Texas and Florida will also see several of their Republican seats flip blue, despite Texas redistricting. Yes, I believe the wave will be that big.

2) Rise of the Democratic Governors

What do Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, and J.B. Pritzker all have in common? They are Democratic governors running for reelection in 2026, in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively, and are all considered in the mix for 2028. All three will win their reelections.

The country also will have a half-dozen new Democratic governors, including those recently elected in New Jersey and Virginia. Out of this crop of state chief executives will come the Democrats’ next leader. Face it, the Obama-Biden era is over, and so is the Bill-Hillary era. A new leader for the Democratic Party will emerge from one of these 2026 gubernatorial winners. The Democrats know they can’t win in 2028 with a warmed-over version of a previous ticket; they will seek an entirely new name.

3) Trump Wins the Nobel Peace Prize

December saw two peace prizes given out, one to President Trump and one to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Machado received the highly coveted Nobel Peace Prize while Trump received the newly created FIFA World Cup Peace Prize. A soccer organization giving the prize to Trump isn’t as prestigious as the famous Nobel Committee, but it’s the beginning of a drumbeat.

Trump has been credited with achieving peace in the Middle East, and he is inching closer to a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which would help him lay claim to the Nobel prize. I would expect a full-court press by Trump and his world allies to secure this prize.

4) Supreme Court Justice Retirement

It’s just a hunch, but I think we’ll see a Supreme Court retirement this year. I am doubtful it will be a liberal justice, due to the risk that President Trump would fill the seat with a conservative. Next year Clarence Thomas will be 78 next year and Samuel Alito will be 76. If their calculation is that a Democrat may win in 2028, it would be give them even more reason for them to retire and ensure that their seats are passed to new conservatives.

5) Noem and Hegseth First to Leave Cabinet

Early exits by cabinet officials are common in every administration, but I believe Kristi Noem and Pete Hegseth are going to be the first to leave. They are the faces of immigration, drug enforcement, and homeland security. These are grueling 24-hour news-cycle positions, and they have garnered the highest level of media attention of any Cabinet members. This scrutiny will only ramp up if the Democratic Party looks poised to take the House. I believe Hegseth and Noem leave before the end of 2026, allowing them to reemerge as talking heads and position themselves for future political ambitions.

6) The Coronation of J.D. Vance

“If J.D. Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.” This was what Secretary of State Marco Rubio said when he was asked about the prospects of Vice President Vance running for the Oval Office. I expect 2026 to be the year that the Republican Party coronates Vance.

Other contenders will interpret this Rubio line to mean they should defer to Vance. Vance continues to be in good standing with the president and party leaders. I predict next year he will take the presumptive 2028 front-runner status to the next level.

My 2025 Predictions Scorecard

Whiffs

Dysfunction in the GOP-Held House

Count me as a skeptic that was proved wrong. I doubted the Republican majority in Congress could stay unified, and I was a cynic when it came to the belief that the tax bill would be as large as it ultimately was. Not only did it tackle tax relief, but it also included energy incentives, SALT cap deductions, and major education reform legislation. The Republicans remained unified and Trump deftly used his early political capital to get this across the finish line.

Closing the Department of Education

I was equally skeptical that Trump would close the Department of Education. Forgive me for this pick, but 20 years ago I was part of original congressional discussions around this issue, and they went nowhere. I couldn’t imagine that President Trump would be able to pull this off, but he did — more evidence that when it comes to President Trump, all bets are off.

Wins

Elon Musk Leaving Washington

I correctly predicted that Elon Musk would get bored with Washington and prove unable to navigate the massive bureaucracy. This came true early in Trump’s second administration, and Musk himself has since admitted that he wouldn’t do DOGE again. Could you blame him? He’s trying to become the first trillionaire, and I’ve never heard that word paired with “bureaucrat.” This was a marriage that was never going to work.

The Rise of Gavin Newsom

You know what marriage did work? Gavin Newsom and social media. Newsom’s rise to relevancy and dominance of 2028 Democratic presidential polls has a lot to do with his mastery of social media. Longtime readers of this column know how nervous I was about Newsom’s up and down 2025, but then it stabilized once he began dominating the leading medium of our time. Newsom isn’t going away, and his star will continue to rise in 2026.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1092)