There is now media buzz about another potential lame duck, President Donald Trump

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hen I first entered politics, I had an offer to work for one of the most powerful people in Washington, the retiring House majority leader. I was excited at the prospect of my immediate entry into the upper halls of power — until I heard the word “lame duck” associated with my prospective employer’s name. This is a toxic term in politics that defines a politician who has lost power. The retirement of this House majority leader meant I would be working not in the halls of power but simply in the halls of a lame-duck elected official. There is now media buzz about another potential lame duck, President Donald Trump. Suffering a massive defeat earlier this month and predictions of a likely electoral drubbing in 2026 midterms, and a massive amount of infighting and defection within his own party, the question is if Trump is losing power and entering the dreaded title of lame duck.

What Is a Lame Duck?

The term lame duck originated in the 18th century, when British politician Horace Walpole wrote to Sir Horace Mann: “Do you know what a Bull, and a Bear, and a Lame Duck are?” Walpole was referring to the London Stock Exchange and the categories of relevant players, including the financially strong bull, the financially weak bear, and finally the lame duck that couldn’t pay his debts. The term later evolved to mean a politician who couldn’t keep up with the rest of the political flock. Like an injured duck, a politician losing political power can’t quack, flock, dive, or fly with the other political birds.

There are two ways a lame duck can be classified in politics. The first is the easiest to classify — an incumbent politician who has lost office to an incoming politician. This is happening as we speak with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Mayor Adams and Governor Murphy have all the technical power of the job as they still legally retain the office, but the political power has mostly transferred to Mayor-Elect Mamdani and Governor-Elect Sherrill. The second is trickier — the politically helpless. It’s not that another politician has succeeded to the actual office, but that circumstances have crippled a politician’s ability to hold power. Think Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal, Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal, or Woodrow Wilson’s second term, when his physical infirmities prevented him from engaging in power politics. All three of these presidents weren’t facing a successor, they were confronted by an environment that hindered their political effectiveness.

Why Is Trump Being Discussed as a Lame Duck?

Cascading electoral dates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forcing the discussion.

Blue Wave in 2025: There is no sugarcoating how bad it was for the Republicans in 2025. Losses throughout the country, a Republican party polling terribly, and one startling realization: When Trump isn’t on the ballot the rank and file suffer massive losses. A great politician is always thinking about the next election. The fear of 2025 is driving fear by the House and Senate Republicans of a…

Blue Tsunami in 2026: There is palpable fear in Republican ranks that they will lose the House of Representatives in 2026, driven by blue turnout and the lack of ballot-driving Trump. Rank and file Republicans don’t want to lose their seats and can’t blindly follow the president if it will cost them their seat. A Democratic takeover in 2026 would also cripple the president’s ability to make progress on many of his initiatives in his last two years. There is a feeling of inevitability about 2026 that is creeping in and making many politicos think forward to…

Presidential election of 2027 and 2028: Gavin Newsom is ascendant. He won the California redistricting battle, has mastered the use of social media, and is leading political polls. The jockeying for president has already begun and will launch in earnest right after the midterms. Vice President Vance admitted as much when asked about his presidential run: “After that (the midterms) I’m going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it. If we do a good job, the politics will take care of itself. If we do a terrible job, the politics will take care of itself in the other direction, so I’m just going to focus on the job that I have.”

In this temporal cyclone of electoral speculation, it is no surprise that Trump’s political effectiveness and ability to keep up with the political pack is being questioned.

Why Trump Isn’t a Lame Duck… Yet

Signs from the right and left are telling us that Trump still holds massive political power, despite all the electoral handwringing.

On the left we have such a sign from newly elected Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani reached out to the president immediately after his election. Mamdani and Trump held an Oval Office meeting this past Friday. Mamdani is ascendant in Democratic political circles and wouldn’t meet with Trump if he didn’t still hold massive political power.

On the right we have Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG), who, after a massive fight with the president, announced that she will be resigning from Congress. Although having MTG defect reflects poorly on Trump’s caucus unity, very few rank-and-file Republicans came out to defend her. This is a sign that Trump continues to lead the Republican party and is not perceived as someone that the party-faithful will take on in fights. MTG is an extreme figure and has yet to coalesce enough MAGA Republicans to break with the still strong president.

Bottom Line

Trump continues to lead the flock as he holds the most powerful political position in the world, with both the left and right of American political classes still recognizing that role. Looming electoral defeats may chip away at his power, but the tell-tale sign will be the 2026 midterm election results. Should the Democratic party sweep to power and end his majority, the world may watch as the most dominant figure in American politics risks becoming its most prominent lame duck. —

Heard on the Street — When Redistricting Goes Wrong

“This has been a disaster for us,” one Republican campaign expert lamented to me. This was after a court struck down the Texas Republican redistricting maps. The Republicans pushed for redistricting and the Democratic party countered. So far, it may end up backfiring on the Republicans. As of this writing, CNN predicts that when it comes to redistricting, it is plus 6 Democratic seats to only 4 Republican seats. Things may change, but if Texas is moved off the map it will be hard for Republicans to catch up.

Honoring Cheney: When Political Rivals Come Together

It was nice to see prominent Democrats like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Jamie Raskin, and Adam Schiff in attendance at former Vice President Dick Cheney’s funeral. Dick Cheney was frequently attacked by the Democratic party’s leadership during his lifetime, and to have some of these same people in the room honoring him is a fitting tribute to both Cheney and the capacity for both parties to come together.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1088)