Why is this redistricting fight so cutthroat? Who will win this epic clash? Where does the fight go next?

W

hy was Texas law enforcement on the lookout for Democratic lawmakers who had fled the state? That question might sound silly, but consider the domino effect that the 2025 Congressional redistricting fight will have on the average American.

The process of reallocating the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives is only supposed to happen after the decennial US census, taken in years ending in zero. But Republicans have demanded an unprecedented mid-decade recount, on the charge that the 2020 census figures included a large number of illegal aliens in blue states, thereby skewing the distribution of US House seats. Democrats are not taking this lying down, and are formulating plans to retaliate.

During August, this fight has moved from the White House to Texas to California to Illinois to Missouri. It’s likely coming soon to your home state. Republicans and Democrats are trading barbs and laying out plans to grab power, gerrymander, and change the course of the 2026 elections.

Why is this redistricting fight so cutthroat? Who will win this epic clash? Where does the fight go next?

Why Is Redistricting So Important?

Redistricting is the process that determines the geographical boundaries of Congressional districts. When these borders get redrawn, the politician who represented you last year may have his district lines moved half a mile down the road. He still represents your neighbor, but you have someone completely new.

Each state has a redistricting commission that decides on these lines. But where does the data to draw the maps come from? The US Census Bureau, which takes a population count every ten years. The growth in population does not result in an increase in seats in the US House of Representatives, however; that number has stayed at 435 for nearly a century, since the Reapportionment Act of 1929, even though the national population has nearly tripled over that time.

That means that faster-growing states get additional House seats at the expense of slower-growing states. Those changes can determine which party ultimately wins majority power. This is why you hear about New York and New Jersey losing House seats to Florida and Texas. State legislatures each have their own rules and processes for mapping the Congressional districts.

It all seems straightforward enough — until we insert politics into the equation, thanks to one of America’s Founding Fathers.

The First Gerrymander

Elbridge Gerry was governor of Massachusetts in 1812 when he approved his state’s new map of Congressional districts. These lines overtly favored his Democratic-Republican Party, with districts carefully drawn to exclude the opposition from holding a voting majority anywhere. One district had the odd shape of a salamander. A creative newspaper editor termed it “Gerry-mandering,” and from then on, it has referred to a state legislative body carving up the map to ensure more seats for whoever holds the majority.

For over 200 years, elected officials across the country have carried on this proud American tradition. There is nothing more predictable or more American than partisan redistricting. I wish I was being sarcastic.

What makes the process unique now is that the next US census won’t be conducted for another five years. So why fight now? To answer that, we must understand President Trump’s motives.

The Domino Effect

The Trump administration realizes that Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms. So they began discussions with the GOP-controlled Texas state legislature about redistricting, to pick up five more Republican House seats in advance of 2026 — critical when they hold a majority of only 219 to 212.

You may be asking, how is that possible? How could a state redistrict before the 2030 census? First, each state has its own laws on redistricting, and some allow it in off-years for special reasons typically relating to legal issues or emergencies. Second, Texas previously engaged in a non-census year redistricting battle in 2003, which makes it the perfect state for the Republicans to try it again.

This move created a domino effect. Texas Democrats lost their minds and did whatever they could to not aid in the redistricting process by ordering their legislators to flee the state, which prevented a meeting due to a lack of a quorum. The Texas “exodus” also led to retaliatory discussions by Democratic-run legislatures about redistricting in their states.

Governors J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Gavin Newsom of California have both threatened redistricting in their blue states to make up for the loss of the Texas seats — although both have already engaged in such effective gerrymandering that there are hardly any Republican seats to pick up. (In one entertaining press conference, Massachusetts governor Maura Healey promised to even the score with Texas, even though there is not a single GOP House member in her state.)

On the Republican side, we have red states like Indiana, Florida, and Missouri all discussing redistricting in this now growing colossal battle. It seems a day won’t go by without a blue or red state weighing in on what they will do to tip the scales of power.

The question now is: Who will win?

An Epic Clash

I think the Republicans will win this redistricting battle. The Texas legislature has accomplished this before, and I believe they will be able to do it again. Contrast this with the many blue states that have never engaged in this kind of battle in a census off-year. When these other states propose redistricting, it grabs headlines, but it’s a very arduous process to redistrict in an off-year.

Democrats will have to hope that the traditional historical pattern with opposition party victories in midterms will give them a blue wave that delivers enough seats to render the Texas redistricting irrelevant.

Where Does This Fight Go Next?

I think that since most states can’t redistrict now, the fight will move past 2026 and on to the 2030 census. Trump has already begun that discussion by stating that illegal immigrants shouldn’t be part of the 2030 census. Such a policy would impact states with large immigrant populations — many of them blue.

Perhaps this is a move by the president to keep Democrats on the defensive, but if he were successful in enacting such a change, it could impact hundreds of congressional seats and completely upend the House.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1075)