MAGA is on the verge of civil war

I

suppose none of us should be surprised that it came down to a conspiracy theory to truly divide MAGA.

Anyone who’s been following Donald Trump for a long time will remember that after decades in the public eye, his first sustained foray into politics was his promulgating the idea that Barack Obama wasn’t born in America and was thus ineligible to be president. With this “birther” conspiracy theory, Trump didn’t just fashion a durable political weapon he could wield against those in power but also drew throngs of followers to whom he dished out more red meat.

He utilized some conspiracy theories against his Republican political opponents, such as when he floated the idea that Ted Cruz’s father was with Lee Harvey Oswald prior to the JFK assassination. Others he employed for foreign policy purposes, such as when he repeated the rumor that Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau could be the son of Fidel Castro. He likely brought up many of his theories, including claims about celebrities, business leaders, and ethnic groups, simply to keep his base entertained and motivated. Honestly, the list is far too long for this column.

During the Obama and Biden presidencies, Trump was able to control the narratives around these theories because he was in the opposition. During his own first term, his cabinet members were not doling out conspiracy theories. In fact, he was surrounded mainly by mainstream Republican figures who generally abstained from such behavior, including individuals he ultimately broke with, such as Mike Pence and Jeff Sessions.

In these prior environments, Trump could float a theory by his MAGA following, but there was no subsequent activity in his movement to close the loop on the theory. Essentially there was no deadline or requirement for a specific action to bring the theory to a satisfactory close. But now, in his second term, Trump has MAGA conspiracy theorists throughout his cabinet — and they are authorized with the ability and power to investigate and determine if a theory is true or false.

Trump Is Losing Control of This Narrative

Now his own appointees can investigate the conspiracy theories he put in motion. And when their investigations result in… basically nothing, it causes turmoil in the MAGA rank and file.

I am reminded of a great Mark Twain quote: “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes.” The truth is way out of bounds for the MAGA world due to a conspiracy theory’s attraction; it  takes so many twists and turns as different versions multiply that there is no way to quelch its power. When MAGA leaders put down their megaphones and take hold of the mechanisms to act, it can’t come close to satisfying the movement’s hunger for more information. In fact, the MAGA FBI and Justice Departments are now themselves a chapter in a growing and uncontrollable conspiracy theory.

Now MAGA Is on the Verge of Civil War

Anybody outside the Trump administration can now lead this civil war. When people point fingers at what’s wrong with government, their target is now the Trump administration. That’s the danger inherent in conspiracy theories; they can quickly boomerang on you, especially if you manage to attain power. The list of former Trump insiders now on the outside who are disgruntled:

• Steve Bannon, former White House advisor and rumored potential 2028 presidential candidate, has warned Trump on his podcast: “You’re going to lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement.”
• Elon Musk, former DOGE head, went on a social media posting storm against the administration’s handling of conspiracy theories, and raises charges of a “cover-up.”
• Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has gone from being a Trump supporter to being a Trump critic. He has apparently decided that the best course of action is to add another layer of conspiracy theory by implicating Israel.

This growing list of rabble-rousers outside of government and traditional media will continue to stoke the fires within the MAGA movement, because it grows their base and keeps people angry and upset. This is an important tactic because Trump is term-limited, and the leadership of the movement will be up for grabs in 2028.

What Does This All Mean for 2028?

MAGA outsiders will grow in strength while the insiders will suffer.

MAGA needs conspiracy theories. It’s part of the brand, and integral to how they have built their movement. Unless something supplants this need for regular conspiracy theories, those who wield this messaging will wrest control of the movement away from Trump.

It is going to become harder for those inside the Trump administration, including the president himself, to control this aspect of MAGA. Vice President J.D. Vance offers a prime example of this difficulty. Vance has been widely considered the front-runner going into 2028 — but how can he maintain that pose, if he is at the heart of a government that the conspiracy theorists believe is the source of all the problems?

Outsiders like Bannon, Musk, Carlson, and hundreds of other podcasters and political voices living outside the Beltway will continue to grow in influence simply because they can lob theories without being responsible for resolving them — unlike the White House.

The outsiders have only to gain from continuing to inflame emotions, while the insiders will try their best to keep their heads down, protect their political futures, and try their best to end the civil war.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1071)