If the US does make the F-35 available to other Middle Eastern nations, this would undermine Israel’s military advantages

PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK/VANDERWOLF

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srael’s fleet of F-35 stealth fighters has been a game-changer over the last two years, with the Israeli Air Force deploying them to destroy Hamas tunnels in Gaza, a large portion of Hezbollah’s missile stocks in Lebanon, Houthi hideouts in Yemen, and to pulverize Iran’s air defenses.

Israel is the only Middle Eastern nation who possesses the F-35. This is primarily due to a 2008 US law that requires any proposed sales of military equipment to Israel’s adversaries undergo Congressional review to ensure they do not compromise Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) — essentially, its military superiority.

Israeli intelligence officials are expressing new concerns that Israel’s regional military superiority faces a new threat from a global consortium aiming to compete with the US arms industry.

Michael Sweeney, a reporter for Intelligence Online, a France-based service that tracks and deciphers global intelligence activities, reported last week that a Mossad liaison cell in Tokyo has issued a stark warning about the potential involvement of Saudi Arabia in a Japanese, UK, and Italian consortium known as GCAP to develop sixth-generation fighter jets, with capabilities superior to the fifth-generation F-35.

GCAP, which stands for Global Combat Air Programme, is designed to carry twice the weapon payload of an F-35, fly across oceans without needing external refueling, and, most importantly for the consortium, will not be beholden to any American regulations regarding how they operate it or to whom they sell it.

Intelligence Online cites sources that after Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni expressed public support for Saudi Arabia’s entry into GCAP, Mossad liaison figures cautioned their counterparts in Tokyo that collaborating with Saudi Arabia would threaten to “fundamentally change the geopolitics of the Middle East as well as risking weapons-technology leakage to Russia.”

“That move would undermine Washington’s ‘qualitative military edge,’ a strategy designed to ensure Israel’s supremacy in the Middle East,” Sweeney writes. “This is reportedly the reason why an F-35 deal was included in the $142 billion worth of weapons sales announced during President Trump’s visit to the kingdom earlier this month.”

It’s still unclear whether the F-35 will be part of the defense deals President Trump agreed to with the Saudis, Qatar, or the UAE. Congress will have a large say in the matter. However, if the US does make the F-35 available to other Middle Eastern nations, this would undermine Israel’s military advantages.

“The rationale for the QME is that Israel must rely on better equipment and training to compensate for being much smaller in land area and population than most of its potential adversaries,” notes Jeremy Sharp, a specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs for the Congressional Research Service.

The QME is an advantage that Israel must vigorously defend, as it also serves to deter adversaries who recognize that Israel can acquire advanced weaponry long before they can, or access systems unavailable to them.

Until now.

The Saudis’ Real Deal

The GCAP presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the United States. Intelligence Online highlights that Japan’s commitment to assume a greater share of the costs tied to securing the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in relation to China and North Korea, aligns seamlessly with the Trump administration’s objective of urging allies to contribute more to their defense responsibilities.

America is also developing its own sixth-generation fighter jets, primarily the Boeing F-47. Although the GCAP jet won’t be ready for delivery until 2035, it will still present significant competition to US arms sales. This may help explain why the Trump administration is eager to provide F-35s to its Arab Gulf State allies, including Saudi Arabia, and the feeling is mutual.

Some analysts argue that the Saudis are prepared to invest billions of dollars to ensure that part of the new fighter jet’s development occurs in Saudi Arabia. However, this claim is dismissed by Bilal Saab, director of TRENDS Research & Advisory — USA, in an article he wrote for Breaking Defense in January.

Saab argues that the costs would outweigh the benefits and suggests that the Saudis are publicly expressing their desire to join the GCAP to pressure the Trump administration.

“If the public flirtation with GCAP is enough to tip American leaders to finally clear the F-35… then Riyadh will likely be content to wave goodbye to its sixth-gen ambitions and happily take a more proven, currently-in-production jet — one which Israel has reportedly used against the Saudis’ traditional foe, Iran, over the last year,” Saab writes.

Deterring Bad Behavior

Saudi Arabia isn’t the only country Israel worries about regarding the purchase of F-35s; Turkey is another.

Earlier this month, Eric Edelman, a former US ambassador to Turkey, told a JINSA podcast that QME considerations have never been applied to US arms sales to Turkey. However, that might have to change, just as the Trump administration has lifted some arms sanctions on Turkey, potentially clearing the way for Turkey to purchase F-35s. This is problematic, considering how Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ramped up his inflammatory rhetoric against Israel.

“We need to make sure that we don’t have US military equipment that ends up being used against Israel,” Edelman said. “That would be not just against Israel’s interest, but against America’s.”

On the same podcast, JINSA scholar Svante Cornell warned that dangling US sales of the F-35 as a carrot to make the Turks behave differently is not realistic.

“We’re going to have to see some type of very serious and very public change in the way Turkey is behaving, primarily in the Turkish rhetoric, but also in terms of Turkish behavior vis-à-vis Israel and the Israel-Gaza conflict before the United States can make any such determination [on the F-35].”

All this and more will be points of discussion when Israel and the US renegotiate a new deal to replace the existing ten-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which allocated $38 billion in US defense aid to Israel and is set to expire in September 2027.

Many fresh ideas will need to be considered that will contribute to Israel’s security, enhance US interests, and ensure that the world’s most powerful warplanes don’t pose a threat to the US or its allies.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1063)