The opposition missed its last chance, and for them, this Pesach will be all maror

Photo: Flash90

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Who would have thought that a year and a half after the worst massacre in the history of the state, Prime Minister Netanyahu would be stronger than ever, having torpedoed the opposition’s last chance to bring down his government? This rhetorical question has an answer — the only one who kept the faith was Netanyahu himself. Now, he’ll likely be able to dissolve the government and go to elections at a time convenient for him — and only for him.

In Israel, the passing of the state budget represents a unique opportunity for the opposition. If they can prevent it from passing by the end of March, the government collapses automatically. This year, the opposition’s outlook was fantastic at the start, with Ben-Gvir outside the government and Agudas Yisrael chair Yitzchak Goldknopf threatening to resign and vote against the budget unless a draft law was passed.

The strongest cards were held by someone who’s not even in the Knesset — the prime minister of public opinion polls, Naftali Bennett. His position as a non-incumbent put him in pole position to undermine the Likud and woo its MKs across the political divide.

The reason for this is simple — like the grounds for Ronen Bar’s dismissal. Per Israeli election law, an MK who’s been declared a defector by his party is ineligible to run in the next election with any other party that was represented in the outgoing Knesset. The legislation is designed to prevent vote theft, whereby the opposition guarantees a coalition defector a seat in the next Knesset in exchange for toppling the government.

Alone among the other opposition leaders, Bennett held the key to disaffected Likud hearts. On the assumption that he starts an entirely new party ahead of the next election, instead of trying to revive the defunct Jewish Home Party, he could guarantee defecting Likud MKs a seat in the next Knesset by promising them slots on his party’s list.

The week of votes on the state budget was Bennett’s golden window for winning over defectors, something Bibi successfully did to Bennett’s change government in 2022. For Bennett, it was a one-time opportunity to take the country to elections now, as polls predict he’ll win the most seats in the next Knesset.

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Netanyahu’s sensitivity to any political ferment that might endanger his government is revealed in the following anecdote. The slight, mild-mannered deputy minister Uri Maklev, second on the Degel HaTorah list after chair Moshe Gafni, is a wily political operator, going back to his days as deputy mayor of Jerusalem.

Last month, Maklev entered the prime minister’s office on the second floor of the Knesset building, which is always buzzing with diligent reporters armed with cameras. But Maklev, who has a way of slipping under the radar, made it in without an invitation and without being photographed, bearing sensitive information from the chareidi side.

“I would keep an eye on Babchik and Ben-Gvir,” Maklev warned Netanyahu, referring to Goldknopf’s senior advisor Motti Babchik, who had already conspired once with Ben-Gvir against the “Trapped Profits” bill.

At the time, readers may remember, Netanyahu rose from his hospital bed like a wounded lion to make it to the vote and quell the rebellion. On his way to the chamber, he managed to split the Agudas Yisrael faction, drawing Belz representative MK Yisrael Eichler back into the coalition fold.

The bill squeaked over the line, and Ben-Gvir later had to apologize to Netanyahu for forcing him to show up to the vote during his recovery from a difficult surgery. You don’t have to apologize for a win, and Ben-Gvir came across like the man from the parable who was lashed, ate the rotten fish, and then paid for it.

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There was briefly an opening to toppling the government, but as always, it was Netanyahu who seized the moment, reinforcing his coalition and passing the budget with a majority of no fewer than 68 votes.

In five moves, Netanyahu brought the wayward son Ben-Gvir back into the government, stopped the flow of electricity and humanitarian aid to Gaza, set a date for the cabinet meeting to discuss the dismissal of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, announced Shin Bet head Ronen Bar’s dismissal, and, of course, resumed the war in Gaza.

At the same time, Ben-Gvir’s return to the government and Gideon Saar’s integration back into the Likud outflanked Agudas Yisrael from the right and the left, making its threats to vote against the budget hollow. Sure enough, the ultimatum was dropped, thanks to a promise by Netanyahu to address the draft issue after Pesach.

The opposition missed its last chance, and for them, this Pesach will be all maror.

The Scoop

Getting the Job Done

A quick stroll around the Knesset corridors will leave anyone confused by the massive entourages of aides and security guards surrounding every junior minister. This pomp and circumstance often goes to their heads, leading them to delegate key tasks to their army of aides.

But not Netanyahu. When he needs to get his hands dirty, he does the job himself, not trusting anyone else.

This characteristic was on display over the past few weeks, just as on the eve of the last elections, when I watched him personally mediating between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, Degel HaTorah and Agudas Yisrael, to prevent the smaller right-wing factions from crashing under the electoral threshold.

Despite the weight of the renewed fighting, his exhausting testimony in his trial, and his complex health situation, Netanyahu acted on his own to break down the pockets of resistance and rebuild his government. Hu v’lo malach, hu v’lo shaliach — l’havdil, of course.

That’s Israeli politics in a nutshell. There’s Netanyahu, and then everyone else.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1056)