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Trump’s Seismic Change    

President Trump has done the seemingly impossible and closed the Department of Education

Photo: SHUTTERSTOCK/DCSTOCKPHOTOGRAPHY

I

was working in Congress 23 years ago when a bill came forward to close the Department of Education. Many saw it as symbolic, not as a realistic proposal. The bill moved nowhere, life moved on.

Now President Trump has done the seemingly impossible and closed the Department of Education. This is a bureaucratic, political, and educational earthquake. Let’s look at the fault lines to understand why:

Political Earthquake

Candidates make promises all the time on the campaign trail. Most of them go unfulfilled. Trump campaigned on closing the Department of Education but few, including yours truly, thought he would do it.

Why would we? The Department of Education was started in 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, and has been a target of Republican criticism ever since. Conservatives have long argued that education should be in the hands of states, and more importantly, in the control of parents. They feel that the federal government has too much input into what is fundamentally a local issue.

Ronald Reagan famously campaigned on ending the Department of Education and stated his intent to cut it from the budget in his 1982 State of the Union address. Republicans have spent four decades since then talking about this without actually taking any concrete action. This is one of the things that makes Trump so unique — his ability to move longtime conservative campaign promises into action. It reminds me of all the half-hearted campaign promises to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem. Then Trump pulled it off in his first term.

This is a political earthquake because an elected official isn’t supposed to fulfill campaign promises this quickly — certainly not dormant ones. This type of action keeps political opponents guessing while shoring up support.

Educational Earthquake

President Trump closed the Department of Education with an executive order. That’s not enough to terminate the department; Congress could still take action to keep it afloat. The lawsuits that have been filed may also delay the implementation of the executive order.

But if the closure moves forward, this is an educational earthquake. Although state and local governments make up most educational spending, the federal government still funds anywhere from 10% to 15%, including vital resources like IDEA and Title I. These critical funding sources support not just public schools but also non-public school parents. Trump’s order doesn’t cut funding for IDEA and Title I but transfers them to other agencies.

The real tremor is that the Trump administration is intent on finding ways to put educational choice and dollars back in the hands of states, and ultimately parents. Trump’s other campaign promise was universal school choice. If he’s willing to close the Department of Education, could we see him invest serious political capital into a universal voucher or tax credit program?

Bureaucratic Earthquake

We’ve often highlighted in these pages the rapid pace with which Trump and his DOGE are rapidly rethinking and shrinking government. Federal funding continues to be cut, halted, and rolled back. The Department of Education, with over 4,000 employees, is not the biggest federal department, but it is one of the most recognizable.

This move is indicative of this administration’s willingness to completely reshape government. Every federal agency and department is on notice that Trump intends to continue his monumental overhaul of government.

Remember, earthquakes have aftershocks. When funding is cut in Washington, states and municipalities must make their own adjustments. A bureaucratic earthquake with its epicenter in Washington is reverberating around the country.

POLITICAL INTEL

I mentioned previously that I was hearing worried whispers in Republican circles about the 2026 midterm elections. That has turned into shouting and complete panic. A special election for a Pennsylvania state senate seat in a district where Trump won 57% of the vote just flipped to the Democrats. The passion we are at Democratic town halls and rallies is giving Republicans agita.

FEARLESS FORECAST
Scorecard

Bad Pick: Well, regular readers will know that I made an awful pick in guessing that Trump wouldn’t close the Department of Education. I just didn’t believe he would do it this early in his administration. I was flat out wrong.

Good Pick: I predicted that within a few weeks Trump’s address to Congress would no longer be newsworthy. I will take a victory lap on this call. These speeches are simply not as relevant as they were 30 years ago, or even a decade ago.

This Week’s Picks

No Heads Roll in Signal Scandal: This administration doesn’t follow conventional wisdom. I don’t see any terminations or resignations. I assume that all the parties involved will simply wait for it to move off the news cycle and that their base will forgive them.

Democratic Party Reclaims House in 2026: This is a massive early pick I am making. Here’s why. Trump pulled the nomination of Elise Stefanik for United Nations ambassador due to the need to hold her reliable vote in Congress. Speculation is rampant that there was an overarching fear that her House seat would flip Democratic in a special election. We have 19 months until the midterms, and if Republicans are panicking now, imagine what happens in 2026. This is a troubling early sign of Republicans’ nervousness over their ability to maintain their majority.

 

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1056)

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