As I often say in this column, “A week is a lifetime in politics”

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

—Yogi Berra

This amusing quote is especially applicable to politics. Players who seem relevant today who turn out to be irrelevant tomorrow, and vice versa. Last year, many of my predictions centered on Joe Biden, while Elon Musk’s pivotal role was then unforeseen. As I often say in this column, “A week is a lifetime in politics.”

Despite these challenges, readers want to know what is on the horizon. So, without further ado, here are my big, bold 2025 predictions.

Elon Musk gets bored with politics and returns to space.

A politico once astutely noted that there are great campaigners and great executives. Most politicians can’t do both. But what if one enters the game not as a politician but simply as a booster? In sports terms, a booster supports the team with resources and overall chizuk. Isn’t that what Musk was doing in the 2024 race? With a platform and sophisticated resources, he boosted the Trump campaign and was pivotal in his election.

But why would that make him a great executive in government? A great executive of Tesla, perhaps, but government is so much more complicated. It moves at a glacial pace and is laden with bureaucratic traps that boggle even the most brilliant minds. Musk’s challenge is to cut government red tape and bureaucracy — a herculean task for anyone, but even more challenging for him, considering that his new role has him outside of government. I don’t see it.

2025 Prediction:

After a few months of tweeting about government and posting a few announcements, Musk gets bored with the slow pace of government and returns to being one of the most brilliant visionaries of our time. Musk stepping into the political limelight and then dropping back out adds to the chaos of GOP 2025 priorities, leading to the next prediction…

Major tax reform squeaks in, but House dysfunction slows or halts everything else.

When I worked in Congress, my bosses took votes they liked and votes they didn’t like. They also had respect for the leadership and trusted that both the party and the House of Representatives had one leader at a time. Such a philosophy is now completely absent from the current GOP-controlled House. Every time there is a policy argument, there is talk about ousting the Speaker.

Adding to this chaos, the Republicans’ new razor-thin margin over the Democrats is a recipe for inertia in the House. Check out the fight over the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling. It’s not just about whether the Republicans can move legislation, but whether they need yet another leadership fight to get it done. This is untenable. Being in the majority means that your agenda and priorities get passed and implemented. Is that possible with this level of discord and fighting? I think not.

2025 Prediction:

Major tax policy gets passed. It must, because of Trump’s mandate and the number of Democrats who share a strong interest in passing tax reform before their own midterm elections. But other major items, like immigration, don’t see movement. How could they? The Democratic Party is better off opposing it, and as long as the House of Representatives remains divided against itself, they will have every opportunity to do so. That leads me into my next prediction…

The 2028 campaign begins earlier than ever before, and one name arises.

There is no upside for the Democratic Party in working with Donald Trump. They’ve finally learned what the Republicans have known for years — that the opposition party is rewarded with more power in midterm elections.

The Democratic Party may look like it’s in disarray now, but one ambitious contender will declare in 2025 that he will be running for office in four years. There is only upside for this challenger as the attention and press will be on him for the entirety of the Trump administration. He can take credit for Democratic victories, including a likely blue wave in 2026, and ignore Democratic failures by saying that he isn’t in Washington and thus not responsible for such failures. Who will it be?

2025 Prediction:

After some statements on the future of the Democratic Party and some touring nationally, California governor Gavin Newsom puts his name in the ring this year. He is far from Washington, thus insulated from the drama, but he has the benefit of the Los Angeles media, which will give him a platform to contrast himself with the president. As he positions himself, it will force Vance and other GOP hopefuls to also position themselves. Both parties will have to pay attention to a new group that can’t be ignored…

The Jewish community stays on a voting roll.

The New Jersey gubernatorial primary is scheduled on Shavuos of 2025. This disenfranchises frum voters who can’t vote on Election Day. When it was first discovered, there was mixed reaction in Trenton, with several key politicians saying, “Let them vote early.” When the community raised its voice, it couldn’t be ignored, and in record time, both the state senate and assembly voted to move the date forward.

This is a testament to what we witnessed this past year in politics: The Jewish vote can’t be ignored. In addition to the New Jersey governor’s race in 2025, there is also the New York City mayoral race. I believe the story is going to be that the Jewish vote is historic and decisive in both pivotal races.

2025 Prediction:

The Jewish vote shatters turnout records in New Jersey and New York City. It is now talked about as potentially decisive in the 2026 Florida and California governor races, in the upcoming midterms, and in 2028… 

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1042)