They are trying to sell themselves as moderates. But they made their mark as Islamist jihadis

Photo: AP Images

Celebration over the sudden downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s murderous regime in Syria has been tempered by pessimism over whether the rebels who took over are any better.

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel army and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who now hold power in Damasus, are trying to sell themselves as moderates. But they made their mark as Islamist jihadis, fighting to unite a war-scarred country divided into fiefdoms ruled by various militias.

Seth J. Frantzman, a journalist and Israel-based adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, has monitored Syria for decades and authored After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East. He speaks with Mishpacha about Syria’s future.

Paper Lion

“Assad looked strong on paper, but that was only because he was supported by Russia and Iran,” says Dr. Frantzman. “He was almost overthrown in 2011 — the county almost fell to ISIS. Syria’s army lost a third of its men in those fights and had trouble refilling the ranks. If you dug down, there were very few men and a lot of equipment that didn’t work.”

Sheep’s Clothing?

Mr. al-Julani’s pledges of tolerance and a vison of a diverse Syria have made him a hero to some. But his group’s past ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS are troubling.

Dr. Frantzman says history lends ample reason for skepticism. “These groups do not get nicer. Hamas didn’t moderate when it was hosted in Qatar.”

HTS claims to have broken ties with ISIS and al-Qaeda and evolved into an independent umbrella group of Sunni militias. Most of its fighters are Syrian, but it has also attracted Chechens and Uzbeks, who tend to be the most radical in their views.

The Threat to Israel

Dr. Frantzman says even if HTS ends up like the Taliban in Afghanistan, it poses far less of an international threat than did jihadi groups of the past: “The track record of these groups has become that while they are still quite extreme, they haven’t looked to export terror. They’re not the threat to world peace they used to be.”

The HTS threat to Israel has been reduced, in any event. In the chaos following Mr. Assad’s flight, Israeli strikes destroyed many of Syria’s weapons stockpiles and the IDF took up positions on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. It may prove to be wise strategy.

“If [al Julani] focuses on Syria, Israel will be fine, but history tells us these groups end up viewing Israel as an enemy,” says Dr. Frantzman.

A Bunch of Gangs

Can HTS effectively govern? The group controlled the northwestern Idlib province for several years, even as Mr. Assad held the reins of power in Damascus. HTS won fair marks for its administration.

But now it must find a way to rein in various rival forces: US-backed Kurds in the northwest, Turkish-backed forces in the northeast, and other groups in the southeast around the US al-Tanf military base.

“[Al-Julani] will have some trouble consolidating power,” says Dr. Frantzman. He adds that while some rival groups might be effective partners, the Turkish supported Syrian National Army are “a bunch of gangs, the worst type of people you could have to run a country.”

Iran Recalibrates

Mr. Assad’s fall is a sign of Iran’s further diminished power. Tehran has lost its land route for resupplying Hezbollah. HTS’s ascendence also puts Iran-backed groups in Syria on notice: Al-Julani’s declared goal is to rid the county of Shia influence. But don’t count Iran out.

“Iran will play it smart and not move troops in, but find an accommodation with HTS and get them to turn a blind eye to their smuggling and other activities,” says Dr. Frantzman. “It will hurt Hezbollah temporarily, but Iran will find alternative routes to deliver weapons.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1041)