Not for over a century in British politics has the Conservative-Labour duopoly been challenged like this

Since his Reform UK party won an unprecedented five seats in the July election, charismatic populist Nigel Farage’s fortunes have only improved. Having played a key role in splitting the right-wing vote, which cost the Conservatives up to 80 seats at the ballot box and handed Labour an extra 144 seats, Reform is now turning its sights on the party they helped elect.

Labour, originally jubilant at Reform’s resurgence, which was the decisive factor in their victory, is increasingly alarmed at the inroads Farage is making, this time at their expense. Ahead of local elections in May 2025, and parliamentary elections in devolved nations in 2026, Reform is predicted to make big gains. The party membership has recently passed the 100,000 mark, they’ve bagged some high-profile Conservative defections, and their momentum seems unstoppable. We take a look at their current position and ask if they can really redraw a century-old political map.

A Dying Duopoly?

Not for over a century in British politics has the Conservative-Labour duopoly been challenged like this. The first-past-the-post electoral system is ruthless at squeezing out fringe parties, but the populist right has built up a sufficient following in concentrated areas to make them a credible threat to Labour. In 89 Labour-won seats, Reform is in second place. Nationally, Reform polls at 20% on average, trailing the two dominant parties by only single digits.

Labour’s start in government has seen their poll lead evaporate and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings fall off a cliff. Swept into government by an electorate desperate to boot out the Conservatives, they’re now perceived to be a resounding disappointment, and a quickly disillusioned public is looking elsewhere. The much-diminished, still-soul-searching Conservatives have yet to offer a coherent alternative to Labour, leaving the field open for a challenger.

A Welsh Wave?

Labour has dominated the voting in Wales since 1999, but years of domestic incompetence are tempting voters to Reform. The poorest nation in the UK has seen declining public service and educational standards, despite record spending.

Farage’s outfit is eyeing the Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections in 2026 as a huge political opportunity. The Senedd is moving to a European-style proportional representation system, creating a uniquely favorable position for a fringe party like Reform. A recent poll had Reform tied in second place with Labour on 23%; a mighty fall for the ruling party, which once clocked 50% support.

Scottish Surge

Scotland has been dominated by the center-left since 1999 — first Labour, then the pro-independence Scottish National Party. In recent months, it looked like the SNP were toast, having been thoroughly trounced by Labour in the general election, but the Labour government’s woes are harming the party in Scotland, and polling indicates that Scottish Labour’s lead has vanished.

Reform are not expecting to win big in Scottish parliamentary elections in 2026, but with a partially proportional representational system, they’re confident of some gains. Scottish polling expert Sir John Curtice recently predicted they could take 8 to 12 of the 129 seats up for grabs.

Border Disorder

Perhaps the biggest boost to Reform has been recently published legal migration figures, which were revised upward after the initial figures were found to be missing data. For the Conservatives, who had consistently promised to reduce migration, they were damning indeed — 906,000 in the year to June 2023, though they fell to 728,000 by 2024 as a result of visa changes implemented by the Sunak administration.

Labour, who in opposition fought against every attempt to control migration, seized on the figures as evidence of their predecessors’ incompetence and disregard for voters’ wishes, but they have yet to offer a concrete plan to reduce legal migration, let alone deal with the tens of thousands arriving illegally by boat to England’s south coast. Immigration consistently ranks in the top three concerns of all voters, and Reform have ample evidence that none of the main parties are either willing or able to tackle this thorny issue.

Defection Watch?

A pair of ambiguous interviews, in which New York mayor Eric Adams did not rule out a switch to the Republicans and said he would fight for American values, whichever party he was in, has set off feverish speculation that the embattled Democrat may defect to the GOP, of which he was a member from 1995 to 2002.

Adams has been at odds with the Biden administration over immigration, and is set to meet Trump’s border czar Thomas Homan to discuss deportation of illegal immigrants from New York. Unlike most of his Democratic colleagues, Adams has been careful not to criticize Trump, and has spoken approvingly of Elon Musk’s appointment as efficiency czar.

Local Democrats are incensed at what they perceive as Adams’s efforts to wangle a pardon from Trump for the criminal bribery case in which he’s embroiled. Trump has previously expressed sympathy with Adams for what he sees as political “lawfare,” like the president-elect’s own legal woes. An Adams defection to the GOP would be a prize indeed. Watch this space to see whether Trump welcomes another high-profile convert to the MAGA fold.

Romanian Ruh-Roh

When pro-Russia, anti-EU independent Calin Georgescu finished first in Romania’s initial round of presidential elections on November 24, nobody saw it coming. Polls placed him fifth or sixth. Suspicions immediately fell on Russian interference; it would be in Moscow’s interest to have the anti-Western, pro-Putin populist in charge of one of Eastern Europe’s key power players.

The runoff contest was set for Sunday, December 8, but on Friday, Romania’s constitutional court canceled them, ruling that the first round had to be rerun. They cited declassified documents from Romanian intelligence, which revealed a concerted Russian effort to spread propaganda on social media and boost Georgescu’s profile with 25,000 fake supportive TikTok accounts. There were also allegations of undeclared foreign donations and campaigning during periods when it was prohibited.

Georgescu claims he’s been the victim of an establishment attempt to overturn democracy, and even his runoff rival Elena Lasconi denounced the decision. Georgescu’s vowed to stand again, though the date for the rerun has yet to be announced. In the pan-European battle between East and West, this election will be critical.

High on AI

The S&P is set to end 2024 up 27% annually, on top of a 24% surge in 2023, fueled largely by massive gains in AI stocks like Nvidia and server-manufacturer Super Micro Computer. The stock market platform hasn’t had such bullish runs since the dot-com boom at the turn of the millennium. Will the AI hype also evaporate?

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1040)