As the Harris-Walz ticket rockets, 4 experts weigh in on what to expect

Project Coordinator: Gedalia Guttentag

Our panelists:

BINYAMIN ROSE
is former news editor and current editor at large for Mishpacha, and a popular commentator on US and Israeli political affairs.

MAURY LITWACK
is the founder and CEO of the Teach Coalition, one of the nation’s largest faith-based lobbying organizations in education funding advocacy, and writes Halls of Power, a semi-monthly column in these pages.

STU LOESER
is a Democratic communications strategist who has worked on three presidential campaigns as well as congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. His media strategy firm helps companies in crisis.

TEVI TROY
is a presidential historian and former White House aide, currently a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center. His latest book is The Power and the Money: The Epic Clashes Between Commanders in Chief and Titans of Industry.

British prime minister Harold Wilson’s oft-quoted truism about political time frames — “A week is a long time in politics” — has never looked truer than over the last few weeks.

Entire eons of political and public life have passed before our eyes at breakneck speed, with conventional wisdom enjoying the lifespan of amoeba.

Remember when Joe Biden enjoyed wall-to-wall support from Democrats and media allies? His very public meltdown was thought to have doomed the Democratic Party to defeat. That narrative was reinforced by the stunning imagery of former president Donald Trump surviving an assassination attempt. Next came a triumphant Republican National Convention, as Trump unified the party underneath him and cemented his legacy by picking J.D. Vance, a critic turned MAGA star.

Mere weeks later, that outline is too outdated even to serve as fish-wrapper. Kamala Harris, who has garnered record-low approval ratings as vice president, has taken center stage, seemingly remade as an assured campaigner dominating news coverage, and picking a running mate who has sent Democrats into a delirium of joy.

For some wisdom among the upheaval, and to get a sense of what’s in store going forward, we’ve turned once again to the A-team of pundits.

1

Let’s start with an eat-your-yarmulke moment. When we last convened, Joe Biden had just dropped out and Kamala Harris was scrambling to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination. A number of you thought that she was a weak candidate, but Harris then took off like a rocket, energizing Democrats and edging ahead of Donald Trump in the polls. Where did that conventional wisdom go wrong?

Binyamin Rose

Since I was one of those who said Biden would be the weaker candidate, I’ll keep my kippah on my head and out of my mouth, for now. The Democrats have one goal: Beat Trump. And they will hype anyone with enough sizzle to be competitive. Harris has special appeal to the identity politics crowd, but I would say her spurt in the polls resembles a “relief rally” in the stock market. It will fade, but America has been a 50-50 country in the popular vote since 2000. This was always going to be a close election.

Maury Litwack

I’m not eating my yarmulke! In the last panel I said, “What we’ve seen to date isn’t necessarily who Harris is or how she will likely campaign.” I made that assertion because as vice president, her image had been overshadowed by President Biden. The vice president has run a campaign with little error and a lot of excitement right out of the gate because she is now the face of her party and their chances in 2024. That being said, that great start is likely unsustainable, and that good polling will likely not last over nearly 100 days of a grueling campaign.

Stu Loeser

In defense of these other good gentlemen, almost everyone thought Kamala Harris was going to be a wobbly candidate, at least at first. Many of the self-appointed brightest stars in the Democratic Party explicitly said she’d be terrible. So how did she manage the most successful campaign launch ever? Speaking to hundreds of different groups over the last three years without too much daily attention had a real benefit for her. She certainly exudes confidence at the podium now, staring down pro-Palestinian protestors at an event with her steely silence. But is there more to this transformation? It may be that, as vice president, she was deliberately careful not to make the president look even rustier than he was.

Tevi Troy

I still think she’s a weak candidate. But she’s benefiting from Democratic relief over not having a diminished Biden on the ticket and not having to go through a primary process. Primaries expose candidates’ abilities in a number of areas, including public speaking, talking to the press, retail politicking with regular voters, and speaking off the cuff. Thus far Harris has only had to display her public speaking skills. Staying wholly on script isn’t possible in a primary or an extended presidential campaign, but it is apparently possible when you are gifted the nomination in August.

2

Last week, Harris picked Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her VP. Rate that on a scale of 1 to 10, and explain why.

Binyamin Rose

For Democrats, I will give this pick a 7, a barely passing grade, and for the Republicans, I give it a 10. I will explain.

Of all of the candidates Harris was considering, Walz was her worst pick. He comes across to me as the progressive version of the old television character Archie Bunker — abrasive and opinionated. Choosing Walz is very revealing, in that Harris pandered to her progressive base. That’s a dead giveaway as to how she will govern if elected.

For the Republicans, it’s a 10, because Josh Shapiro would have helped Harris win Pennsylvania, which is the tipping state in 2024. Republicans will find a lot to attack in Walz, and they’re already leaning hard on his military service record and his other progressive stances.

Maury Litwack

Walz is a 5. One of the ideas of a vice-presidential pick is to “do no harm,” and that’s why he’s right in the median. I don’t think he harms her, but I don’t think it’s a huge net positive. Minnesota was already likely blue, but he hasn’t made truly negative headlines like Vance did, so that alone is a plus.

Stu Loeser

Ten, because this rating scale only goes up to ten. Walz himself is great — he talks and walks like a high school teacher and coach, and it’s refreshing.

On a second level, it’s also a brilliant pick, because the Democrats knew that the Republicans were going to immediately attempt to “otherize” the Dems — to try and paint Harris and her running mate as out of step with “regular Americans.” Picking Governor Walz instantly prevented the Republicans from using one of their favorite tactics, because he seems far more like a guy you’d see at Costco than any of the other candidates.

And on a third level, Walz’s obvious, fundamental decency draws a clear contrast with Trump’s salesmanship and tendency to always overstate everything, which is about the nicest thing I can say about Trump’s honesty.

Tevi Troy

The Harris campaign gets a 10 for their successful and effective rollout of the previously unknown Tim Walz as the vice presidential nominee.

But my concern — about what this shows about the dominance of the progressives in the Democratic Party, the ugly whispering campaign against Josh Shapiro, and what this means for Israel — is close to a 10 as well.

3

Okay, let’s talk about that. There was lots of hype around the option of Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro. Is there substance to the claim that he was left out because of his overtly Jewish and pro-Israel orientation? And how worried should Israel be about a Harris-Walz ticket?

Binyamin Rose

All politicians have enemies and rivals, and Shapiro has accumulated his share of both during his relatively short political career. Even his home state Senator John Fetterman reportedly argued against picking him, based on Fetterman’s knowledge of Shapiro’s positions. Influential Democratic pundits and donors let it be known that Shapiro’s brand of support for Israel and even his outward observance of Jewish tradition could harm the ticket among progressives nationally, and with Michigan’s large Muslim population. Overall, Shapiro is too centrist for today’s Democratic Party.

The Democrats’ support for Israel has been eroding ever since Obama took office. That erosion will get “progressively” worse under Harris. But Trump also recently reportedly sent an Arab confidant to a meeting of Muslims in Michigan to say he still ultimately supports a two-state solution. Israel needs to recalibrate, no matter who wins the election.

Maury Litwack

There is more than just substance to that claim — there was a serious campaign against a VP front-runner who was Jewish. Shapiro held the same positions on Israel as a majority of the other candidates, yet he was the biggest problem for these left-wing activists. One prominent newspaper referred to the fact that he was an “observant Jew” as a problem, while I saw another activist with a large social media following point out that he went to Jewish day school. There is a destructive, hateful wing of the Democratic Party that is anti-Israel, and this wing is troubling.

Stu Loeser

This is a GOP talking point and a risky one at that, because it insults Jewish voters’ intelligence. Less than a week after VP Harris picked Governor Walz, credible polls showed that they’d already jumped to a significant lead in Pennsylvania. Governor Shapiro was a solution to a problem the Democrats no longer faced, because the vice president is almost certain to win Pennsylvania anyway.

On Israel, I don’t agree with everything either candidate says or does. I’m actually more worried about the people Trump meets with, and I don’t just mean the prominent neo-Nazi and Holocaust denier who came for dinner at Mar-a-Lago. But Israel’s biggest threat is Iran, and I’m particularly worried about how easily North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un was able to woo Trump, because the Supreme Leader of Iran could easily try something similar.

Tevi Troy

The campaign against Josh Shapiro was a real thing — and Israel should be very worried about the Harris-Walz ticket — but his Jewishness was only one reason for the strong opposition he faced. Progressives didn’t like his support for Israel or his apparent moderation on school choice, and his rivals within the party didn’t want to see the ambitious Shapiro elevated and have a leg up on them for 2028 or 2032.

4

Moving over to the Republicans, there’s a narrative that Trump seems to be struggling to reorient himself, questioning how black Harris really is and relitigating 2020, instead of talking about what matters to voters. Is this just Trump being Trump, and his overall strategy is okay? Or is he in trouble?

Binyamin Rose

Ronald Reagan used to say a lot of wacky things also, and Republicans would say, “Let Reagan be Reagan.” Here too, Trump will be Trump, especially when he feels he’s been put on the defensive, which is 99.9% of the time.

It’s when Trump goes on the attack that he would benefit from a change in tone. The insults and ridicule are falling flat. He can attack Harris on her public record and personality, but not her skin color or ethnic background.

Trump will never let bygones be bygones, but he needs to cover up the bad blood between him and Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp, who’s got a strong get-out-the-vote machine. With the race tightening, Georgia becomes a must-win for Republicans. They need to win Georgia decisively without having to “find another 12,000 votes” after results have already been announced.

Maury Litwack

I’ve long stopped trying to predict Trump’s campaign strategy. I do believe there was a moment after the RNC when he and his allies believed the campaign was won, and the Biden retirement caught them off guard. Is what Trump doing now a strategy or him struggling? I truly don’t know.

Stu Loeser

Trump is in deep, deep trouble. He bragged this week about how his crowd sizes are bigger than even Martin Luther King’s were, which inadvertently revealed why he hasn’t done a single event in a close state since Harris became the nominee: He just cannot handle that Kamala Harris’s crowds are now a lot bigger than his.

Ever since Harris took over the campaign and did a couple of full-capacity events in the exact same sports arenas that Trump had recently been unable to fill, Trump basically stopped campaigning outside safe states. It devastated Trump, and got him to stop doing rallies, and Trump almost exclusively campaigns via rallies.

Tevi Troy

Trump is like a stand-up comedian who tries out different material to see what works. Questioning Harris’s blackness did not work and he will likely be trying out different lines of attack in the future.

5

Trump says that his Jewish support is “way up,” and there have been polls showing Jews souring on the Democrats. Is a big swing likely, and how significant would that be electorally?

Binyamin Rose

Trump won 30% of the Jewish vote in 2020 and could easily top that in 2024. The Jewish vote is up for grabs. Anti-Semitism on campus and university presidents’ appalling lack of moral clarity have led many influential Jewish mega-million donors to renounce the Democrats and announce their support for Trump.

Now, how does that translate to the ballot box downstream among rank-and-file lifelong, liberal Democrats whose only influence is their single vote? A lot of people I know are equally as worried about the Republican far-right as they are about the Democratic left, or more so, and that fear will mitigate a big Jewish stampede toward the GOP.

Maury Litwack

A big swing is not likely. Too many Jews are registered as Democrats. But Jewish support in presidential races hovers in the high 60s. Should it drop to the low 60s, it would be the Jewish community swinging more to the GOP.

Stu Loeser

A week or two before President Biden’s disastrous debate, I was in a small meeting with senior Biden-Harris campaign staff. We talked about a lot of things, but the part that struck me was the data that showed how Biden remained overwhelmingly popular among the broader Jewish community, like he always was, and there wasn’t much evidence yet that many Trump-voting Jewish Americans were going to switch and vote for Biden. So, I’m skeptical about any shifts Trump claims. I think that by November, we’ll see that Trump ends up losing ground among shomer Shabbos voters.

Tevi Troy

October 7 was a wakeup call to many Jewish voters, but the American Jewish community is still largely Democratic. The Republicans are not winning a majority of the Jewish vote anytime soon, but shrinking Democratic margins among Jewish voters can hurt Democrats in swing states.

6

On a related note, Israel supporters are celebrating the downfall of Squad member Rep. Cori Bush to an AIPAC-backed moderate challenger (aided by high local Jewish turnout). Is this a case of over-celebrating the silver lining, when in fact the cloud —  the loss of Democratic support — is far more significant?

Binyamin Rose

It’s important to keep in mind that the AIPAC-inspired United Democracy Project, whose candidates won eight of the ten races they invested in, also targeted Republicans such as Virginia’s Bob Good, whose track record on Israel was suspect, so this was a non-partisan effort.

It just so happens that most of the anti-Israel candidates for public office happen to be Democrats. Getting rid of incumbents such as Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman sends a message going forward that politicians should think twice before pandering to an anti-Israel crowd that’s boisterous but not numerous enough.

Maury Litwack

It’s not easy to be an incumbent and lose election. Now two of them have, and they were both members of the Squad. The destructive anti-Israel wing of the Democratic Party is demonstrating that they can’t protect incumbents, and that’s a message that their policies and positions are losers.

Stu Loeser

Representative Bush paid too much attention to winning clicks from social media followers who don’t live in her district and not enough attention to the people who could actually vote for — or against — her. But Representative Bush was also always an outlier among Democrats in Congress, almost all of whom are strong and steadfast supporters of Israel, even if they aren’t fans of Bibi Netanyahu.

Tevi Troy

It’s always a good thing when a Squad member loses. We should appreciate our victories when we get them.

7

Until Joe Biden’s debate meltdown, presidential debates were seen as yawn-worthy. With Harris and Trump scheduled to clash on air at least once, could the results be equally seismic?

Binyamin Rose

I would take issue with the premise that the debates are yawn-worthy. Ever since the first televised Kennedy-Nixon debate, presidential debates have produced noteworthy and quote-worthy material. The Trump-Harris debate should be a barnburner, with Harris having the most to prove. Can she think on her feet and hold tough against Trump, who sucks all of the oxygen out of the room? The Vance-Walz debate will also produce fireworks.

Maury Litwack

A new narrative is emerging that Harris hasn’t done any major interviews or put herself in a position to be caught off-guard or have to improvise an answer. The debates are the best opportunity to see if that narrative is true or not. Beyond that, I don’t think it will matter that much.

Stu Loeser

The debates will be cataclysmic. Donald Trump has been preparing for face-offs with an older man who has lost a few steps. He’s never had a one-on-one debate with anyone who is remotely as good a debater as he is. And people will tune in — at least one of these debates will attract as many eyes as an NFL playoff game.

Tevi Troy

The debates might be the first opportunity for the American people to see Kamala Harris in an unscripted environment. Trump is good at knocking opponents off balance, but if he takes it too far, as he did in his first debate against Biden in 2020, it could backfire on him.

8

This election season has been a blockbuster so far. What surprises could lie in store for both campaigns over the next month?

Binyamin Rose

I would continue to expect the unexpected. Does either Trump or Harris deliver a knockout punch in the debates? Does World War III get underway, like Trump says it might? On a smaller scale, I would keep my eyes on early-voting states that get underway in mid-September, shortly after the first debate. Are Republicans participating in force, or are Democrats dominating like they did in 2020? This is going to be a very close race, and in close races, only three things matter. Turnout. Turnout. And turnout.

Maury Litwack

I agree that it will come down to three factors: The economy. The economy. And the economy. Pocketbook issues are the number one issue for voters, and that will decide this election. Any more fiscal surprises or market meltdowns will move the needle.

Stu Loeser

We will learn a lot more weird things about J.D. Vance, and the Republicans will try to produce the same for Kamala Harris, but I doubt it will work. I’ve worked on several campaigns for district attorney and attorney general, and I’ve learned that people like Kamala Harris — who won both — are surprisingly boring. Instead, the big surprise that’s coming is going to be how much Harris-Walz surges in states where Republicans are usually safe.

Last week, I publicly predicted that Harris-Walz would soon take a lead in toss-up states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and that the battlegrounds this fall are going to be in areas like Texas. I got a lot of scorn for saying that, but new credible polls show the first part is already true. Both parties are going to spend the fall appealing to people in places like Florida, and Mishpacha readers’ votes there are really going to matter this year.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1024)