Binyamin Rose's takes on an energized GOP

Speaker after speaker at the Republican National Convention called the November 2024 presidential election the most important of our lifetime. They described in stark terms how the future of the United States of America is on the line. You will hear the same from the Democrats in Chicago in August. Voters may fret over polarization and insist our leaders find a way to overcome it, but the election is a contest between two competing value systems sharing little common ground. The race is turning into a winner-take-all battle in which one side will come out on top and the other will turn into a seething mass of discontent.

Donald Trump came within an inch of missing his date with history to accept the Republican presidential nomination for a third time, after an assassin’s bullet pierced his ear, but nothing more vital.

When Trump told followers that his near-death experience led him to rip up his already-prepared “humdinger” of an acceptance speech and mellow it with calls for unity, speculation began that Trump was embarking on a rebrand for the upcoming general election campaign.

What Trump gave us was something in between.

His acceptance speech contained elements of a man who had a brush with death, forced to come to grips with his mortality; but once he got cranked, he spiced his address with a large helping of the vintage Trump.

His loyal followers would not have been satisfied with anything less. The fist that Trump raised triumphantly once he realized he had survived an assassination attempt and his chant of “fight, fight, fight” reverberated throughout Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum arena for the four-day Republican convention, which turned into a Trumpfest. If Trump is to build on the 74 million votes he won in 2020, which wasn’t enough to put him over the top, he will need to break out both versions of himself.

The new Trump, sporting a rectangular white bandage over the back of his right ear, opened his 90-minute address in softer, subdued tones. During his talk, I was standing on the convention floor beside the Iowa delegation, strategically situated near a teleprompter. I always like to compare the actual speech to what’s loaded on the teleprompter, because I’ve found that when a politician deviates from the prepared remarks, he is expressing his truer sentiments.

That doesn’t work so well with Trump, though. He goes off-script too many times to count, his brain shifting gears at a moment’s notice.

He began describing the attempt on his life in detail. He walked solemnly to the other side of the stage to a chair that held the helmet and uniform of firefighter Corey Comperatore, who lost his life to one of the bullets intended for Trump.

Trump kissed the helmet and walked back to the podium. The audience was touched.

For the next 20 minutes, Trump called for national unity, saying the discord and division in American society — some of which he has been accused of fomenting — had to be healed, and quickly. Appealing to independent and Democratic voters, he set a goal of being the president of all of America and not just half. In that regard, he demanded that Democrats put an immediate halt to weaponizing the justice system against him and labeling him as an enemy of democracy, “when I’m the one who’s saving democracy for the people of this country.”

He invoked G-d’s name on multiple occasions and thanked Him for saving his life, which came across as sincere and was music to the ears of an audience packed with evangelicals and other believers.

While keeping the name-calling and ridicule to a bare minimum, the old Trump resurfaced halfway into his speech. He accused Democrats twice of the 2020 “cheating election” without getting into the nitty-gritty of it.

He didn’t dwell on foreign policy, but he spoke at length about the Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, and how that contributed to a perception of American weakness that emboldened Russia and Iranian proxies to violate the borders of Ukraine and Israel. He reminded Americans that he had met with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, who he contended is looking forward to having Trump back in the White House.

Trump also repeated his proposal to build an Iron Dome defense shield to protect America from incoming missiles. Israel has one, he said, so why shouldn’t we, and it should also be made in America.

More of the old Trump came out when he lambasted “Crazy” Nancy Pelosi, noting how often the House of Representatives subpoenaed his sons Don Jr. and Eric when she served as Madame Speaker.

Trump mentioned President Biden by name only once, slamming him for “the unthinkable damage” he said he’s done to the country, and excoriated the Biden administration for every economic ailment that plagues Americans, mainly high inflation and energy prices.

Trump said the presidential campaign should focus on issues, and launched into a laundry list of pocketbook concerns that he would prioritize. A second Trump administration would see incomes skyrocket, inflation vanish, taxes cut, the national debt reduced, and Social Security and Medicare made solvent again. Perhaps Trump has a magic wand to wave to make this all happen fast, but in the 1980s, when Ronald Reagan claimed he could cut taxes and cut the budget deficit at the same time, his rival, George H.W. Bush, memorably called this “voodoo economics.”

If you’re all for oil and gas exploration, you’ll be happy with Trump’s use of the “drill, baby, drill” slogan and his call to make American car manufacturers great again. But the key to prosperity, he said, was to shut the border to illegal immigration, which he referred to on multiple occasions as an “invasion.” Without that, there are no guarantees that his economic program will be as effective as he would like.

How Long Does the New Trump Last?

So, what’s with the mix of the old and the new Trump?

Part of it is tactical, aimed at the short term, and part is long-term and strategic.

When Axios founder Mike Allen asked Don Junior at a media event at Axios House earlier in the week if he thought his father was a changed man after his brush with death and how long that might last, he admitted that his father would tone down or de-escalate some of his rhetoric.

“How long will the new Trump last?” Don Jr. says, repeating the question. “I think it lasts. There are events that change you for a couple of minutes and events that change you permanently. But he’s a defiant leader, and he’s not going to stop being Trump when he’s attacked.”

Trump didn’t need to go on the attack himself against Biden. Trump accepted the nomination on a day when pressure had peaked on Biden to show some humility himself and bow out of the race, which he did on Sunday after losing the support of every leading Democratic officeholder in Washington and his donors deserted him. So Trump had no reason to push Biden off of a cliff when he had others to do the dirty work for him.

Also, by showing he can be low-key, and by displaying vulnerability, Trump showed a side of him that is rarely seen. He humanized himself, in contrast to the many who have demonized him. Or as Don Junior phrased it at Axios: “Our lives were easier when we weren’t getting shot at and ridiculed and getting convicted for paying back half a billion dollars in loans with interest.”

Longer term, Trump’s prioritizing economic policies set the tone for the campaign, which will be won or lost on pocketbook issues. The Biden administration’s handling of the economy — or mishandling, depending on your perspective — is a Democratic Party weak spot.

In addition, Trump tapped a bulldog of a running mate in Ohio’s Senator J.D. Vance, who is renowned for dealing with hostile media with vigor and intelligence. Years ago, presidential candidates often sought to remain above the fray, and one of the traits they looked for in a running mate was the talent for being the attack dog on the campaign trail and saying what the presidential candidate couldn’t say without it backfiring on the campaign.

In that respect, J.D. Vance is a sound pick, but more than that, the freshman senator, who has barely served two years of his first term, is Trump’s ideological soulmate, despite the vast disparities in their upbringing and socioeconomic backgrounds.

J.D. Vance: No Pulling Punches

While Trump was born into a wealthy New York family, J.D. Vance, who was born James Donald Bowman, possesses the quintessential rags-to-riches story. Eight years ago, he wrote a best-selling memoir called Hillbilly Elegy, about life growing up in a poor and broken Ohio family and how his maternal grandmother, from whom he took the last name Vance, raised him in rural Kentucky.

Life soon got better for Vance. He joined the Marine Corps, where he honed his communications skills as a press officer in Iraq. He used funding from the GI Bill to attend and graduate from Ohio State, he earned a law degree at Yale, and he worked at a venture capital firm whose founder became a top donor to Vance’s campaign for Ohio’s vacant US Senate seat in the 2022 midterms.

Vance married Usha Chilukuri, whose parents are from India. She grew up in an upper-middle-class suburb of San Diego. They met at Yale Law School. At his acceptance speech, Vance told his future wife that his dowry consisted of law school debt of $120,000 and a burial plot in rural Kentucky, but money, or the lack of it, was no object. Chilukuri was born into the Hindu faith (Vance converted to Catholicism). After law clerkships with both Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts and Judge Brett Kavanaugh (before his nomination to the Supreme Court) she joined a Washington law firm, where she practices civil litigation and appeals.

Why did Trump pick Vance?

At 39, Vance is half Donald Trump’s age. Once an anti-Trumper who compared Trump to a vile dictator, Vance had a big change of heart just in time to get on Trump’s good side. Trump’s son Donald Jr. is a big Vance fan, and it’s believed he had a major influence on his father’s decision. But more importantly, Trump and Vance see eye-to-eye. Like Trump, Vance is disruptive and speaks his mind. Back in March, Politico ran a profile of Vance under the headline, “Is There Something More Radical than MAGA? J.D. Vance Is Dreaming It.”

He has ideas for radically restructuring the US economy, especially manufacturing, and he’s honest that it will take at least ten years of consistent policymaking to get that done.

Vance, like Trump, is a culture warrior. On the campaign trail, he will rail against the progressive elites, who he says care more about the value of their stock portfolios than how well stocked the cupboards of the average working man and woman are. This line will open up Vance to attacks from Democrats during the fall campaign. When Vance ran for Senate, some of his largest campaign donors included Wall Street titans such as Peter Thiel, who was Vance’s boss when he worked in his venture capital firm. Plenty of average working men and women invest and have done well in the capital markets. Vance certainly has the smarts to fuse his hillbilly upbringing with his new upscale status to explain how Wall Street can lift boats on Main Street.

When he ran for the Senate, Vance compared the America of today to the Roman Empire at its steepest decline. He wants the US to avoid the same fate. As Vance said back then: “If we’re going to push back against it, we’re going to have to get pretty wild, and pretty far out there, and go in directions that a lot of conservatives right now are uncomfortable with.”

Speaking to reporters on the convention floor, former New York congressman Lee Zeldin responded to a question asking whether Vance was now best positioned as the new face of the Republican Party. Zeldin suggested there was a risk in looking too far ahead.

“For anyone, in any position, you always have to earn your next election,” Zeldin said. “It doesn’t matter whether you have an approval rating of 90% or if things haven’t been going well. We have an election to win, and nobody should be focusing on any election other than November 2024.”

Having said that, if the GOP ticket wins, Vance will be the proverbial “heartbeat away” from the presidency. The attempt on Trump’s life at a Pennsylvania rally shows that’s much more than a shopworn political cliché.

If Trump values Vance’s advice as much as his fight, he could have a major influence on Trump’s policies. After Trump picked Vance, several articles appeared in Jewish media questioning Vance’s pro-Israel bona fides. Vance comes from the younger, more isolationist stream of the party. He’s been quoted as saying he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. Some commentators expressed concern that Vance might feel the same way about Israel.

At the convention, I touched base with several longstanding Jewish sources who have relationships with Vance and some of his key advisors, including his Senate chief of staff, Jacob Reses, who is not Torah observant but has an affinity for Orthodox Judaism. I granted these sources anonymity so they could speak freely.

The consensus was that Vance says the right things about Israel and will do the right things, although it’s important to keep in mind that he will be building a new staff to shepherd him through the rigors of a presidential campaign and prepare him to assume the vice presidential duties if the Republican ticket wins, so there are likely to be many new faces surrounding him. My Jewish sources, who include lobbyists and fundraisers, hope to have some input into that selection process.

I would further suggest that Israel might do better with an American administration wary of foreign interventions who would let Israel deal with its many entanglements, without carping every day that Gaza residents don’t get a 3,000-calorie daily diet, or happen to be (shall we say) in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Vance, like Trump, has said that Israel needs to win its regional war quickly so we can get back to the business of expanding the Abraham Accords as a regional bulwark against Iran. At the convention, Vance criticized Biden’s policies for prolonging the war that make it harder to move ahead, and he set red lines for sending US troops overseas. Vance’s brand of isolationism goes just so far: “Together, we will send out kids to war only when we must,” and “when we punch, we’re going to punch hard.”

Letting Bygones Be Bygones

Overall, the convention packed a lot of punch for Republicans, who left town unified, energized, and buoyed by polls showing potential for a larger GOP margin of victory, especially with the Democrats in disarray after Biden announced that he would not run for a second term.

Before Biden dropped out, Bernie Moreno, a Republican challenging three-term Democrat Sherrod Brown for a US Senate seat in Ohio, appeared at a Salute to Israel event sponsored by the Republican Jewish Coalition. I asked Moreno how his campaign strategy might change if Biden quit. Moreno said it doesn’t matter to him who heads the Democratic ticket because he is running against the Biden administration’s record and not any one person.

“How do you defend open borders, high prices, instability around the world, an assault on American energy, dangerous communities, terrible failing schools, and a debt that’s massively out of control?” Moreno said. “You can’t defend that. So they are going to replace a pawn, but it doesn’t replace the policies of the last three and a half years.”

And even Trump’s former primary opponents rallied around him at the convention. Nikki Haley also shed her old campaign persona to stump for Trump. She was the last Trump opponent left standing in the primary campaign, and once she dropped out, she initially declined to throw her support to Trump. Pundits often cited her relatively strong showing — she won 15% to 20% of the votes in some states — as proof that Trump was in trouble with independent voters, who had crossed over in states that permitted them to vote for Haley.

She put that notion to rest during her campaign speech.

“I am speaking to you tonight because Donald Trump asked me to speak,” Haley said. As for voters who have their quibbles with Trump, she said her message to them was simple: “You don’t have to agree with Donald Trump 100% of the time to vote for him.”

Another Trump rival who dropped out early, Ron DeSantis carried the torch for the culture wars that will play a prominent role in the national campaign.

When talking about the progressive faith in diversity, equity, and inclusion, DeSantis gave his take on the DEI acronym: “Joe Biden is a tool for imposing a leftist agenda on America. DEI, in practice, means division, exclusion, and indoctrination.”

Having said that, this was Donald Trump’s convention, and the party platform passed on day one reflects his views. Trump and his campaign team went out of their way to tone down the language on controversial social issues that Democrats use to paint Republicans as reactionaries who will take people’s rights away. Not only that, but they drummed those points down the throats of delegates who sat on the platform drafting committee to ensure there would be no dissent.

As Campaign 2024 gets set to start in earnest, we know one thing for sure. At least until Election Day, the Republican Party is the party of Donald Trump.

The vast majority of Republicans love that or like that. Those who don’t have at least reconciled themselves to the facts on the ground.

The Republican Party in 2024 is the party of Donald Trump, from top to bottom.

Tight Security Is No Guarantee of Safety

Where were you when President Kennedy was assassinated?

This is an iconic American question that people who lived in the 1960s are often asked and will always remember.

Donald Trump survived his assassination attempt, so such a question won’t have the same impact, unless you’re Donald Trump Jr., and it’s your father who almost got killed.

Don Jr. was a significant presence at the convention, and as mentioned, he met with the media at discussion at Axios House moderated by Axios founder Mike Allen. Sitting on stools at 45-degree angles on stage, Trump told Allen that his current fiancée, Kimberly Guilfoyle, called him as he was out fishing with his daughter in Jupiter, Florida.

“Your father was shot,” she said.

Don Jr. rushed home to find local police swarming around the premises to provide protection.

“It was 90 minutes before I even knew he was alive,” Don said. “Finally, we got him on the phone, and considering the heaviness of that moment, I was looking for a window of levity.”

Hearing that his father was shot in the ear, and that it was messy, Don Jr. asked: “Most importantly, Dad, how’s the hair?”

He recreated his father’s response, mimicking his father’s voice and mannerisms. “The hair’s fine, Don, the hair’s fine. A lot of blood in it, but the hair’s fine.”

While the Trumps were able to share a lighthearted moment at a scary time, for Texas senator Ted Cruz, who sits on the Senate Judiciary Committee that has oversight over the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, this was no laughing matter.

“Donald Trump is the single most threatened individual in this country,” Cruz said during an appearance with his Verdict podcast co-host Ben Ferguson.

Responding to reports that Iran was plotting to assassinate Trump, Cruz noted a conference call he held earlier that day with the Secret Service and FBI. Cruz was frustrated with the answers he received, especially when he asked whether the Secret Service deployed drones or any other form of aerial surveillance at the site where Trump spoke.

The answer he received was: “We felt the risk was mitigated by the counter-snipers we had positioned on the scene.”

Cruz fumed. “Right now, all we know is a 20-year-old kid went in and did this. Holy cow, if they can’t protect against that, what about a professional hit squad from an enemy country? This is incredibly disturbing.”

The assassination attempt on Trump came two days before the convention began. RNC officials and authorities went out of their way to calm fears, saying the security perimeters would be sufficient, and no extraordinary measures were necessary.

While I had familiarized myself with the security arrangements before arriving at the convention, it’s hard to believe that no additional measures were implemented. This was the third national political convention I’ve covered; getting around Tampa and Charlotte (2012) and Cleveland and Philadelphia (2016) was a breeze in comparison.

Waze and Google Maps weren’t updating the street and highway closures. Police stationed at roadblocks were happy to offer directions, but they too weren’t certain about street closings. I was stuck in my rental car for over two hours at my designated automobile security line, as police directed the bumper-to-bumper traffic along from all four directions.

Secret Service and Homeland Security officials surrounded every car once it arrived at the checkpoint. They asked drivers to open all four windows and crack the hood and trunk. A dog circled each vehicle sniffing for explosives.

The US Coast Guard patrolled the Milwaukee River in pontoon boats, which made more than the usual ripples in the murky waters. Other officers clad in blue and brown flak jackets rode double file on the adjacent riverwalk.

Stuck in traffic, I did get a good view of Downtown Milwaukee, which, like Trump, is a mix of the old and the new. Tidy beige, brown, and brick buildings are sandwiched between modern glass towers. American flags were hoisted atop many buildings in a show of patriotism.

At one point, I heard a commotion and glanced in my rearview mirror. Rows of marchers sporting “Palestine Will Be Free” signs and waving Palestinian flags were just a block away. The demonstrators seemed unenergetic. Police moved them along, with no harm done.

The next day, some protestors got more aggressive, with police using force to keep them from encroaching the security perimeter. Two days later, when I was walking just outside of the security perimeter on my way to the press filing room at the downtown Baird Center, a chutzpahdig demonstrator unfurled his Palestinian banner too close for comfort in my direction. I ignored the provocation and moved along.

Aside from that one incident, I felt safe and sound. Conventions often turn into a street fest with concession stands selling food and beverages. Souvenir stands were the rage, and I made the rounds, perusing the various red MAGA hats and the T-shirts with slogans such as “I’m voting for the convicted felon,” “My guns are not your problem,” and “Raise Lions, not Sheep.”

In addition, the outpouring of support that I received from elected officials nationwide, delegates, guests, volunteers, security personnel, and volunteers was genuinely heartwarming. Dozens of people approached me, greeting me with a hearty “Shalom,” or a thumbs up, and telling me, “We stand with you, we’re for Israel.”

When I would tell people that I’m from Israel, the reaction was even warmer. “We hope you guys win,” was a line I heard more than once.

Still, the Republican Party does have its share of rotten apples. It was disturbing to see the exposure the RNC gave to Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who voted against the Antisemitism Awareness Act of 2023 on the pretext that it was anti-Christian, and to North Carolina’s gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who has promoted conspiracy theories against Jews.

RNC delegates gave their most enthusiastic welcome to national talk show host Tucker Carlson, who has criticized US military aid to Israel, suggested that Israel has committed war crimes in Gaza, and recently interviewed a radical Palestinian priest. Carlson has a long track record of championing the political grievances of white people, which speaks to many Republicans, so I’m not implying the ovations they gave Carlson signaled agreement with his views on Israel. But Carlson is charismatic and convincing, and Jewish Republicans need to keep watch on him due to his influence over the party faithful.

Red, Blue, and Purple States Can Change Colors

Wisconsin has just ten Electoral College votes, but the RNC’s choice of the state to host this year’s convention is an acknowledgment of its increasing importance as a swing state, or a “tipping state,” in pollster terminology. Trump won Wisconsin by less than 1% in 2016, but lost it by the same slim margin in 2020, as large Democratic majorities in big cities such as Milwaukee and the state capital of Madison prevailed over the predominantly Republican rural north and western suburbs.

Will Wisconsin be a tipping state this year?

“In 2016 and 2020, we were the state that put the elected president over the majority in the Electoral College, but this year, that will depend on how much the six or seven other swing states have shifted,” says Charles Franklin, the director of Marquette Law School Poll. “At the moment, Trump leads in so many swing states, it doesn’t look like it will be close. But as we saw last weekend [in the assassination attempt] and in the debate [Biden’s stumbles], things can happen that can shake things up.”

While Wisconsin’s status as a swing state is up in the air, Texas has been solid Republican red for 40 years since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1980. Texas is more important than ever this year. Thanks to a growing population, Texas now has 40 electoral votes, up from 38 in 2020 and second only to California’s 54. However, demographics in the Lone Star State are shifting due to an influx of new residents from blue states and new Hispanic immigrants who lean Democrat, at least in their early years in the country.

The Republican margin of victory in presidential races in Texas has shrunk from the 61% landslide territory in 2000. Trump won just 52% of Texas voters in each of the last two elections. The Real Clear Politics average poll shows Trump with a nine-point lead over Biden, but the latest University of Houston poll shows that only 49% of Texas’s registered voters say they intend to vote for Trump.

I asked Rep. Michael Cloud, who represents the 27th District covering the coastal bend of Texas’ Gulf Coast if he worries about the state turning “purple,” a designation that implies the state is neither Republican red or Democratic blue, but up for grabs.

“There’s talk about that all the time, and we see millions of dollars pouring into Texas to try to turn that into reality, but the results of the Biden administration have been devastating for so many communities,” Cloud said, citing the influx of illegal immigrants across a porous border. “It’s also changing the political map. People are realizing all these talking points that the Biden administration had are not really good for our communities and devastating for our families, and we’re seeing a retraction from that and an embracing of people who understand the role that the United States plays and how important a secure border is.”

Then there’s Florida, with 30 electoral votes, where most races are usually decided by small margins and Democrats have taken three of the last seven presidential elections.

Here’s where the Jewish votes, including expatriates living in Israel, can tip the scales.

Marc Zell, chair of Overseas Vote Israel, estimates as many as 500,000 US citizens living in Israel are eligible to vote and that 80% to 90% vote Republican.

“If we can get them to vote, they could turn the whole course of the election,” Zell told me on the convention floor on day one. “In 2000, the election for president was decided by 537 votes in three southern Florida counties. In that same election, 1,200 Israeli Americans living in Israel voted for George W. Bush and turned the election. Had they not voted, George Bush would not have been elected.”

Showing Solidarity with Israel

The RNC will never hold its national nominating convention in Jerusalem, even though I often quipped to delegates I spoke with who asked me where I’m from that I come from America’s 51st state, as Israel is sometimes referred to.

Many speakers took to the convention podium to lead prayers for the welfare of Israel and the hostages still held captive by Hamas, which include eight Americans. Donald Trump issued a stark warning during his acceptance speech that there would be a big price to pay if those hostages weren’t freed by the time he took office.

Shabbos Kestenbaum, an Orthodox Jew and a recent Harvard graduate who is one of six Jews suing Harvard for discrimination for failing to protect Jewish students on campus during anti-Semitic demonstrations, delivered a rousing address on the third night of the convention. He won applause numerous times, especially when he revealed he is a fed-up registered Democrat who will vote Republican in November.

Ronen and Orna Neutra spoke next. Their son Omer, who was born in New York one month after 9/11, was taken captive on 10/7. Fighting back tears, the Neutras led delegates in a spirited chant of “Bring them home.”

The night before, I interviewed Senator Katie Britt of Alabama in the corridors near the press section. Sen. Britt made a solidarity visit with other members of Congress two weeks after the October 7 Hamas massacre. A first-term senator, she gained national prominence in March when party officials tapped her to give the televised rebuttal to President Biden’s State of the Union message. She also made an early appearance on Trump’s short list of potential running mates and serves on the Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, which has jurisdiction over America’s southern border.

I asked her what Israel means to her personally and to her constituents in Alabama. She says as a Christian and an American, she supports Israel “to the core of my being and will continue to do so.”

She leveled criticism of the Biden administration on two fronts.

“I’m incredibly frustrated with this administration that they don’t use every tool in their toolbox to dry up Iran financially,” she said. “When Iran has money, we know what they do. They use it for nuclear proliferation, and they use it to fund terrorism, and we know what that means for the brave people of Israel. When we say that we’re going to provide you with some types of weapons systems, that’s what we need to do. Each time this administration speaks, they hedge, and they ultimately, in many ways, have cut Israel’s legs out from under her. I believe Israel is fighting not just for its people or its hostages but for its very existence.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1021)