Mishpacha’s experts predict the year ahead

Borderline Politics

These days, any political party looking to guarantee a steady stream of votes should skip the spiels about the economy or security. In the current zeitgeist, the fashionable trend is to double down on tightening immigration controls.

What’s truly fascinating is this plank’s global applicability. Whether in the United States, the United Kingdom, or the European Union, the debate over borders has the far right in a lather and the center-left parties hushed. Without a doubt, handling the worldwide surge of illegal immigrants will be a linchpin of political campaigns in the year ahead.

Sanctuary Cities, Anyone?

Closing out 2023, the United States population shows an increase of 1.6 million people, of whom 1.1 million are immigrants. Throw in more than three million cases pending in the justice system, and it makes for a compelling campaign visual: the number of immigrants awaiting naturalization exceeds the number of US citizens in ten states, among them Kansas, Nebraska, and Mississippi.

This migration maelstrom isn’t just a rallying point for Republicans. Even high-ranking Democrats, such as Arizona governor Katie Hobbs and Pennsylvania’s Senator John Fetterman, are airing their grievances over the lackluster White House responses. The bottom line: If President Joe Biden wants to keep his job in 2024, he’d better whip up a credible solution to this time bomb.

All at Sea

Across the pond, the United Kingdom faces a parallel conundrum. The ruling Conservative Party, now headed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has had 13 years in power to meet a fundamental demand of its electorate: curbing rampant illegal immigration. While Brexit was sold as the remedy, the reality is thousands of immigrants make landfall on British shores every month, and the government isn’t putting in the effort to stem the tide.

An independent monitoring board reported that 80% of detained illegal immigrants are cut loose instead of being deported. Meanwhile, the Tories can’t seem to get their act together on the long-delayed “Rwanda asylum plan” for relocating migrants to that African nation. Sunak’s promised 2024 elections carry a glaring truth: He’s the sixth consecutive Conservative PM, but if he wants to avoid passing the baton to the Labour Party, he’d better tackle this issue head-on — and fast.

European Dis-Union

Last but far from least is the fractured European Union, holding together as a continental bloc but splitting at the seams on immigration. As the haven of choice for not only African immigrants but also Syrians, Afghans, and Pakistanis, the EU’s solidarity is being tested. Add the millions displaced by the Ukraine war into the mix, and despite leaders’ grand intentions, the voters’ voice takes center stage.

The rise of Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Geert Wilders’ surprise in the Netherlands, and Marine Le Pen’s progress in France paint a stark picture of a rising right wing. And there’s more: Even German chancellor Olaf Scholz, from the center-left, has tightened immigration laws to quell his nation’s crisis, after the backlash surrounding the open-door policy that allowed in a million refugees in 2015. The litmus test awaits in the upcoming European Parliament elections; the formation of a robust, protectionist center-right bloc could portend major changes in the Old Continent’s leadership landscape.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 992)