M y dear jubilant readers please don’t be too quick to rejoice over the new sheriff in town the new resident in the White House. Slow down. It’s too soon to be dancing in the streets. True the new president has publicly expressed unequivocal support for Israel. True he promises to defend us in any international forum. And in another magnanimous gesture he has declared his intention to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. (Of course for the time being this is no more than a declaration and Trump isn’t the first president to make that promise. 

It was just never quite “the right time” to make the promise a reality.) He is sending us an ambassador who is both religious and right-wing more right-wing than Bibi Netanyahu perhaps even more than Naftali Bennett. And many Jews are displaying their satisfaction over the rosy future ahead of us with the new government in place. You’d think an American messiah had just moved into the White House.

But perhaps we should cool our enthusiasm. Let’s admit that we don’t really know how successful the new president will be in carrying out his declared agendas. We don’t really know how reliable his promises are even if he makes them sincerely.

What we do know about President Trump is that he will concern himself first of all with America and Americans as he reiterated in his inauguration speech. We know that he is a tough negotiator who will put his own national and personal interests first — a toughness has brought him multimillion dollar profits in his personal business dealings. We also know that he’s forged ties with Vladimir Putin the Russian czar. Whether the rumors of Russian interference in the elections is true or not the glimpses of the relationship we’ve been able to cull from the media indicate a certain sympathy perhaps even chumminess between these two domineering personalities both of whom believe nothing can stand in their way.

We also know that the new president like his predecessors in recent times would like very much to establish peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Americans seem to have a simple naïve faith that such a peace is attainable.

In this regard President Trump has perhaps already made his first mistake by appointing his son-in-law Jared Kushner as Middle East peace broker. Several weeks ago in this column I explained why I hoped this wouldn’t happen. This likable young man is about to be caught in a trap from which he will emerge lacerated and perhaps done for politically. The mere fact that he is Jewish and observant will prove a stumbling block for him and could spell tragedy for world Jewry. Any step he takes will be twisted by our enemies into an accusation against the whole Jewish People. Trump thinks highly of his Jewish son-in-law’s abilities and Kushner does seem to be exceptionally talented but the president’s statement that “if you can’t make peace in the Middle East nobody can ” may prove to be sadly prophetic. Jared Kushner will not succeed in producing peace.

Anyone who has studied the Zohar and other seforim on the subject of the tension between Yaakov and Yishmael knows that this is not a conflict that can be resolved by human beings not even by the most brilliant young man in America. One who studies the sugya deeply will soon understand that peace will come about only in the context of the geulah sheleimah. And it’s a pity that Jared Kushner should waste his time and strength on this Middle Eastern adventure which is only likely to ruin his career.

But President Trump’s desire to see peace between Israel and the Palestinians and his zeal to succeed where his predecessor failed may lead to truly undesirable developments. In a worst-case scenario Trump’s friendship toward Israel may morph into pressure on us to accept terms against our basic interests — what all the previous peace brokers called “saving Israel from itself.” It is possible he may devise such a plan together with his good friend Putin in order to show the world and the presidents of decades past how it’s done — with the force that typifies these two strong-willed personalities. And in that case Israel would find itself facing one of its most challenging crises yet.

If this scenario were to play out and an ultimatum be issued to Israel it would be a historic irony —for the decision by the UN General Assembly calling for the establishment of a Jewish state in Eretz Yisrael was made possible mainly because this was the one and only time that the Stalinist Soviet Union voted together with its archenemy capitalist America. If the two countries should once again walk hand-in-hand it could become a grim closure.

It could be that the new president in his fervor to succeed might dangle the moving of the embassy before Israel as a reward for evacuating the settlements or some other negative stipulation. And when Israel protests that this would be against its security interests we would get a bear hug from the American president and in a fatherly tone he would tell Bibi (or whoever the prime minister is when that time comes) “Trust me. I have your best interests at heart. Why my own grandchildren are Jewish!”

I don’t want to be the bad guy who spoils the party. What I’ve written might be the worst of all possible scenarios. It is however based on a sober assessment of reality because in the political turmoil of recent decades some of our most difficult situations were orchestrated by our allies who were driven by their various interests into causing us pain. And now we are encountering a very unpredictable and sometimes capricious time. The dark scenario I’ve painted doesn’t have to happen but it could happen. In any case it is too soon to sigh with relief.