Netanyahu faces ongoing pressure from voters after pledging a total victory that has not yet been achieved on any front where Israel is battling
Map Turns Blue
The Cook Political Report, known for its accurate predictions of Congressional races, currently lists 217 seats as solid, likely, or leaning Democrat in the November midterms. That’s one seat short of a majority. Meanwhile, Cook sees the Senate race as tight, but Democrats must win all three races Cook rates as toss-ups to wrest control from the GOP.
The brief video showing Secret Service agents abruptly whisking President Trump away from the dais after a gunshot rang out at Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner was alarming. Others at the table dropped to the floor, crawling to safety on all fours.
The scene was ironic as the Trump administration exerts what it believes to be maximum pressure on Iran to come crawling on its hands and knees to submit to American terms to conclude Operation Epic Fury.
Just as President Trump has now survived three assassination attempts in the past two years, Iran’s Islamic revolutionary government has shown it has nine lives and is still clawing away, even after Israel eliminated its top leaders with targeted assassinations.
Trump’s latest shift to economic pressure means Iran loses $435 million daily in oil revenues due to the blockade, resting on the assumption that Iran cannot sustain these losses for much longer.
The US may be underestimating Iran’s resilience.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is calling the shots in Iran now and is more than just an armed force or domestic military police. Iran is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals. Estimates suggest the IRGC controls between 30% and 50% of the country’s economy.
Janes, a defense intelligence agency, reports that the IRGC oversees businesses across a wide range of sectors, including oil and gas, agriculture, health care, real estate, mining, pharmaceuticals, education, and infrastructure. These locally run and staffed companies produce goods and services for the domestic market and are far less affected by international sanctions.
Crescent International, a global publication aimed at the global Islamic movement, labels this Iran’s “resistance economy.” The late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei coined that term to describe his strategy to “free Iran from foreign coercion and blackmail.”
This insular strategy has its benefits, but its international isolation also imposes steep costs on Iran’s economy and society.
Sanctions on exports and currency conversions have driven inflation up by 50%, with Iran’s currency dropping over 60% against the dollar. Both the US and Israel expected these economic struggles would fuel public demonstrations that would overthrow the regime; however, Iran’s Basij police force responded harshly, killing tens of thousands of protesters in cold blood.
Despite the economic pain, lost lives, and the heavy damage the US and Israel bombing raids inflicted on the IRGC’s petrochemical and steel industries, the regime has shown remarkable resilience, primarily for a few key reasons.
“Growing dissatisfaction does not necessarily lead to organized political pressure,” said Mohammad Reza Farzanegan of the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Marburg in an interview with Deutsche Welle. “Households that have weakened economically have fewer resources to mobilize politically.”
Farzanegan added that the government can leverage people’s economic woes to its advantage, buying their loyalty by providing subsidies so they can make ends meet. He contends that sanctions also benefit IRGC-affiliated firms, which have access to government resources that their private-sector counterparts lack.
Additionally, the effects of the US naval blockade on Iran’s oil shipping routes are uncertain, presenting both benefits and drawbacks. Iran has retaliated by sealing the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupts international shipping lanes and raises oil prices.
Iran, which has steeled itself for this moment, appears better positioned to endure hardship than Europe, which is facing a jet fuel shortage, and American voters, who might direct their frustration at Republicans over gas costing $4 to $5 a gallon during the November midterms. That could cause Trump to step on the brakes.
At the same time, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu could seek new ways to get Trump to step on the gas. Elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October at the latest. Netanyahu faces ongoing pressure from voters after pledging a total victory that has not yet been achieved on any front where Israel is battling.
Iran International, a news agency linked to the Iranian opposition, analyzed scenarios of economic and military pressure. It concluded that Iran is unlikely to face a complete economic collapse in the next two to four months unless a significant military operation targets southern Iran, where most of its oil facilities are located, and aims to free the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian blackmail.
Are the US and Israel ready to take charge? Or are we headed for another stalemate that fails to reshape the Middle East?
A Fool’s Errand
Some analysts argue that the Trump administration’s approach to Iran is flawed, not only because it is engaging with the Iranian regime, but because it is negotiating with people outside of the core power structure.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are the headline negotiators. However, according to Menahem Merhavy, a research fellow at Hebrew University’s Harry Truman Research Institute, the regime’s newly ascendant influencer is Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who became Iran’s new national security chief after Israel assassinated Ali Larijani in mid-March. In a recent report for Foreign Policy, Merhavy emphasizes Zolghadr’s background at the intersection of the IRGC’s military, intelligence, and proxy departments. He is a key figure in Iran’s security apparatus, suppressing reforms and expanding unelected institutions outside the political process.
For policymakers, Merhavy argues the implications are significant. He said Iran has “turned into a state in which power rests less on clerical authority or political negotiation than on the organized force of a security establishment that has moved from the shadows to the center and is now firmly entrenched there.”
In layman’s terms, while Iran’s Islamic clergy has been relegated to the background, its motivating ideology is firmly in place, and those who treat Iran as a rational political entity are only fooling themselves.
Need More Money
Just 52.3% of Americans are satisfied with their compensation from wages, the lowest level since the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began conducting this survey 12 years ago. The New York Fed repeats the survey every four months, so stay tuned.
