The election result for the Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, is an excellent example of the old adage that the operation was successful but the patient died.

Gantz, along with Yair Lapid, Moshe Yaalon, and Gabi Ashkenazi, notched a truly impressive result by winning 33 mandates (as of press time), finishing neck and neck with Likud, which won 35. It’s doubtful that anyone dreamed of such an impressive outcome 45 days ago, when the four joined forces to challenge Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister since 2009. But ultimately, they failed to upend Bibi, due to trends in the Israeli electorate and to reasons specific to the campaign.

Costly Miscalculations

In order to disrupt Netanyahu’s long rule, Gantz would have had to bring two or three mandates from the right to the left. And indeed, he put ideal people in place to accomplish such a result. While Netanyahu repeatedly tarred Gantz as a “weak left” candidate, Ashkenazi, who is portrayed as a “Rambo”-like character on one Israeli satirical news program, could not be tagged as either weak or left. Moshe “Boogie” Yaalon, also a former commander in chief of the IDF, is less popular, but he recruited to the party figures like Tzvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, Netanyahu’s former cabinet secretary and director of the prime minister’s hasbarah network, respectively. These are men not easily dismissed as left-wingers.

But the campaign failed to put Ashkenazi in the spotlight — even though he is considerably more charismatic than Gantz — and Yaalon emerged as a rather bland figure who was incapable of generating much enthusiasm. The Blue and White campaign also suffered from a lack of message. The Likud branded itself as the “strong right.” What was Gantz’s message? It’s not clear.

Also working against Gantz was his acquiescence to Lapid serving as prime minister in a rotation agreement. This compromise was damaging for two reasons: one, Gantz is more popular than Lapid; and two, it was clear the chareidi parties would refuse to sit with the Yesh Atid leader in a coalition. Instead of abandoning the idea of a power-sharing agreement and placing the more popular Gabi Ashkenazi at the front of the ticket, however, Gantz’s preferred to stay on good terms with everyone — and in so doing, he lost the election.

Successes and Failures on the Left

Truth be told, not much remains of the Israeli left. True, many in Tel Aviv and Haifa did not vote, and in the Arab sector, the turnout was historically low. But mathematically, it was virtually impossible for Gantz to form a government.

Gantz successfully drew energy from the “anyone but Bibi” camp and infused it with a fighting spirit. Hundreds of thousands of people from Labor, Meretz, and even a smattering of Chadash voters decided to put their ideology aside and vote for a party that was far to their political right. That effort failed — and not because Gantz didn’t work hard enough. Gantz almost completely maximized the votes that he could have hoped to win from his bloc. The reality, though, is that his bloc is significantly smaller.

Labor Party leader Avi Gabbay ran an impressive campaign that pressed Netanyahu on several sensitive points. He accused the prime minister of racism against the Sephardic population and forced him to respond. He constantly harped on the issues of corruption, security, and the high cost of living. Labor — which has been known recently as the party that tosses out its leaders immediately after a disappointing election result — will err gravely if it decides to defenestrate Gabbay. The Blue and White party was liable to draw votes from Labor this election — no matter who topped the party list.

Meretz waged a pathetic, lifeless campaign that focused primarily on its base in central Tel Aviv. Its main message? That voters had to save it from being ousted from the Knesset. Sorry, but this isn’t the welfare bureau. Voters support a party because they back its vision, not because they feel sorry for its candidates. If Meretz’s wares have no buyers, then party leaders should seriously consider uniting with another party or disbanding. Meretz will need to do some serious housecleaning. What has just barely worked for them for the last three elections cycles — squeaking by the Knesset threshold — probably won’t work next time.

Problems of His Own Making

Unable to bring votes from the right, Blue and White turned instead to cannibalizing the left. Gantz drew votes from Labor — which a week before election was polling at 14 mandates but in the end won six — and Meretz, which just eked past the election threshold.

Gantz also insisted on traveling to the AIPAC convention in Washington, D.C., even though it was unclear what he could accomplish there. As it happened, missiles fell in the center of the country the day before Gantz’s speech, and Netanyahu rushed home, performing well in the role of tough, concerned prime minister. The entire episode illustrated that Israelis care much more about what happens in Ashdod than who delivers a powerful speech at AIPAC.

During that same trip, Gantz gave a televised interview to Channel 12. The broadcast delay between Jerusalem and Washington caused Gantz — who is not used to such appearances — to stammer his way through the questioning. Gantz tried to portray himself as a strong and measured security candidate, but in this particular interview, his performance did not serve him well. The Likud, sensing an opportunity, turned it into a campaign advertisement that raised the question of whether Gantz was truly fit to sit in the prime minister’s chair.

What Now?

Blue and White’s next challenge is two-pronged. First, it must decide whether to retain its current configuration — a union of Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Yaalon’s Telem, and Gantz’s Israel Resilience — or to break up into three separate lists.

Second, it will face a significant test in the very near future: Will it try to thwart a proposed immunity law — sure to be raised in the short term — that would prevent Netanyahu from being indicted? Put another way, are three battle-weary generals energized enough for the parliamentary squabbles in the Knesset? Is Blue and White ready to act as a true opposition party, or is it just a flash in the pan? We’ll find out over the next four years.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 757)