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| The Rose Report |

How to Talk Turkey to Turkey

As Bibi meets with Trump in DC, Turkey fills the Syrian vacuum


PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK.COM/DROPOFLIGHT

Following Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s weeklong trip to the United States, during which he met President Donald Trump, we may glean new insights and perhaps even a timetable for a breakthrough in normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Regardless of how closely the US and Israel align their positions or what demands the Saudis might insist be included in a formal agreement with Israel, another nation is poised to rain on the parade: Turkey.

Most pundits are more worried about the threat Turkey poses militarily to Israel as it gains influence over Syria’s new rebel government. This is certainly an issue on Trump and Netanyahu’s agenda. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan views gobbling up Syria as just the first course toward satisfying his insatiable regional appetite to restore the Ottoman Empire from the Nile River to the Black Sea, with Jerusalem at its heart.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior Pentagon advisor from 2002 to 2003, was one of the first to warn that Erdogan had been laying the groundwork for what he calls “neo-Ottomanism” since assuming office as Turkey’s prime minister in 2003.

In an article published last week in Firstpost and reprinted by the Middle East Forum, Rubin quoted an unnamed Western diplomat who praised Turkey at the time, arguing that it could bridge East and West and exemplify the compatibility of political Islam with democracy.

“He was wrong,” Rubin wrote.

Western countries still have illusions about Turkey. Rubin contends they continue to excuse Turkey’s occupations of Northern Cyprus, northern Syria, and parts of Iraqi Kurdistan as just “manifestations” of neo-Ottomanism when, in reality, it’s a cover for Turkey’s sponsorship of Islamist terror, which includes Hamas.

“Turkey today is not only a force for Islamism and instability in the region; it is an ideological incubator that expands its methodology outward,” Rubin says.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Saudi Arabia waves the baton to the Sunni Muslim world, and everyone else plays to its sheet music. However, Erdogan doesn’t play second fiddle to Saudi Arabia. While Rubin didn’t comment directly on US efforts to lure Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, his writing indicates how Erdogan would undermine such a deal while promoting his grandeur.

“While the Saudi monarchy bases its legitimacy on its role as custodian of the two Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina, Erdogan’s next step is to portray Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman as an unworthy custodian,” Rubin argues. “Then, he will demand the internationalization of Mecca, Medina, and the Hajj under a Turkish-controlled entity such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.”

Turkey’s Jews at Risk

Erdogan wields dictatorial power in Turkey, yet even dictators must cultivate and sustain domestic support for their agendas. Regarding his ambitions for a Greater Turkey, Erdogan resorts to both classic and newfangled anti-Semitism, a clear and present danger for Turkey’s estimated 14,000 Jews.

Nordic Monitor, an NGO that tracks radical and violent extremist trends in Europe with a focus on Turkey, warns that Erdogan’s Islamist party and its far-right nationalist ally have “initiated a covert scheme to target perceived Israeli and Jewish interests, which they consider an existential threat to their political survival and control in a nation of 88 million predominantly Sunni Muslims.”

Abdullah Bozkurt, the Turkish journalist who directs Nordic Monitor, states that the plan includes scapegoating Jews, conflating Turkish Jews with the Israeli government, deliberately disseminating misinformation, and conducting mass surveillance of Turkey’s Jewish minority and Israeli nationals who visit or transit through Turkey.

“One of the most troubling talking points, propagated by government-directed social media trolls, is the claim that some Jews in Turkey hide their true identities to jeopardize the nation’s security,” Bozkurt writes. “This narrative draws on the myth of the Sabataycılar, a secret Jewish community that follows Sabbatai Tzvi but pretends to be Muslim, and attributes Jewish identity to anyone perceived as a threat to the rule of President Erdogan and his allies.

“Their paranoia has been further intensified by what they perceive as a more pro-Israel stance under Donald Trump’s second presidency.”

An Unfriendly Ally

That said, Trump has a penchant for strong leaders, even if they are dictators. He referred to Erdogan as a “friend” as recently as last month, and Erdogan openly and eagerly celebrated Trump’s election victory.

Turkey is a force to be reckoned with. It is a NATO member. According to the International Monetary Fund, its economy ranks as the 17th largest in the world, despite being plagued by high inflation and a weak currency. Although Turkey must import nearly all the oil and gas it consumes, the Carnegie Europe think tank indicates that the central pillar of Turkey’s economic strategy is establishing a natural gas hub at the center of the region’s energy trade. This will lead to economic tensions with Israel, which has formed an “Energy Triangle” with Cyprus and Greece and is planning a pipeline to carry gas and oil from Israel’s offshore fields to Europe.

However, for now, the main fear is how Turkey is filling the power vacuum created by the fall of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria to Syrian rebels with links to ISIS and Al Qaeda, leading Russia and Iran to beat a hasty retreat.

While that offers opportunities to Israel, the risks are high and unknown.

Yaakov Lappin of the Alma Research and Education Center, who focuses on Israel’s northern border, writes that Erdogan’s goal is to convert Syria into a Sunni Islamist client state that will be part of his new Ottoman Empire and to use Syria as a base to build a terror infrastructure against Israel.

Mike Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, suggested one best-case scenario, although it sounds more like a fantasy at this stage. Doran told Yusuf Erim, host of the Strait Talk podcast, that in talks with Turkey, the Trump administration should prioritize Syria’s role as a buffer between the Turks and the Israelis.

David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., who appeared on the same podcast, suggested lowering expectations, at least in the near term. “We don’t really have a Syria policy because we’re trying to wait and see what the government in Damascus actually turns out to be,” Des Roches said.

Until then, the Trump administration would be best served by viewing Turkey as an unfriendly ally.

When coordinating strategy with Trump, Netanyahu must be clear that Israel’s security needs dictate that the IDF retain its newly held positions on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights for as long as necessary and reject statements made by Defense Minister Yisrael Katz and IDF brass that the IDF presence is only temporary. This will also put Turkey on notice that Israel will use force to deter
Erdogan from marching forward with his master plan.

Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, recommends that Israel strategically avoid positioning Turkey as an adversary but must force Turkey to disclose its intentions regarding Syria.

The Trump administration can force Turkey’s hand if it chooses.

Valensi says Israel must insist on secure borders and mechanisms to prevent threats from extremist groups and demand that Syria never act as a conduit for the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It’s not a lot to ask for, considering what Israel has been through since October 7, 2023.

 

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1048)

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