The 2026 midterms are still 14 months away. How can measuring voter sentiment now possibly predict the future?

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epublicans tell me they’re going to hold the House of Representatives. Democrats tell me they’re going to take the House of Representatives. The problem with these predictions is that the 2026 midterms are still 14 months away. How can measuring voter sentiment now possibly predict the future?

Thankfully, we have a closer election this November, which should tell us a lot about which political party is in the driver’s seat for 2026. New Jersey and Virginia each have elections for governor in less than seven weeks. These two states, which were among the original 13 American colonies, are our most reliable indicators of future political party gains. Let’s understand why and see what they can predict.

Political Weathervanes

A weathervane shows which direction the wind is blowing, which is often a reliable indicator of how good or bad the weather will be. In this case, the weathervane is this off-year election, and the “wind” is the president of the United States.

With off-year elections like this, the more energized party is the one that lost the preceding presidential election. With a Democratic president, Republicans who lost a year earlier are highly motivated to turn out. With a Republican president currently in office, the calculation is the same for the Democrats. Republicans happy with their president have less reason to go vote, while Democrats feeling the nonstop Trump “wind” in their faces are keen to “send a message” and cast ballots in large numbers.

Old Dominion and the Garden State

Virginia’s history as a weathervane started in 1977, when a Republican governor was elected after Democrat Jimmy Carter won the White House in 1976. It continued when a Democratic governor took the statehouse in 1981 after Republican Ronald Reagan was victorious in 1980. Since then, Virginia hasn’t looked back; for over four decades, the state has always elected a governor from the party opposing the sitting president, except once in 2017.

New Jersey became a weathervane in 1989 when a Democratic governor was elected after Republican George H.W. Bush’s 1988 victory. Then a Republican governor won in 1993, after Democrat Bill Clinton won in 1992. In the more than three decades since, New Jersey has trod the same path as Virginia, except once in 2021.

This pattern is clearly recognizable in both these states. But how reliable is it as an indicator of which party will win the 2026 midterms?

Factors to Consider

First, some caveats. Virginia has been leaning blue for some time. New Jersey has been a blue state forever. Both have legislatures controlled by the Democratic Party.

President Trump lost both these states to Kamala Harris. But it’s how he lost that makes it interesting. In 2020, Trump resoundingly lost both states to Biden. But in 2024, Trump only lost these states by margins of about five or six points. New Jersey was the bigger news: Trump got closer than any Republican to taking New Jersey since 1992.

Where the Races Stand Now

Politico reported that two recent polls in New Jersey, by TIPP and Quantus Insights, show Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leading Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli by seven or ten points.

The Hill reports that a recent poll by Virginia Commonwealth University has Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger leading Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears by nine points.

These are consistent with most of the polling throughout those races, which have seen large leads by the Democratic candidates.

Best Predictor for Midterms

It’s not just who wins — it’s how much they win by.

If the Democratic candidates win overwhelmingly, a blue wave of Democratic voters is likely in 2026. But the Democrats only squeak by, or a Republican wins, then a Democratic surge in 2026 is less likely.

New York as a Predictor

Much has been written about the New York City mayoral race. Amateur pundits have focused simply on whether far-left candidate Zohran Mamdani will win or not. They point to the latest Polymarket analysis, which gives him an 83% chance of winning, and assume that this is the only relevant consideration.

More seasoned political observers will be watching to see not just if he wins or loses but if he can claim a mandate. After his 1964 landslide win, President Lyndon Johnson told his advisors that he would lose strength in the polls at the rate of one million votes per month, and that he had a diminishing window to get things done.

Politicians can accomplish a lot with a mandate, and very little without it. If a mayoral candidate can’t crack 50% — which every victorious New York mayor has done over the last 40 years — he can’t claim he has a mandate. This is an important indicator that will be watched not just by political observers but by Albany and by Congress.

A Race in Manhattan

With Congressman Jerry Nadler announcing his retirement, the race to succeed him in Manhattan’s heavily Democratic 12th Congressional District will offer an early preview of where the party is heading — and also of the Jewish community’s electoral influence. Will the far left beat the moderate wing of the Democratic Party in the June 2026 primary? Will one of the largest Jewish communities in the country show up?

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1080)